Andrew Reid

So in that case I ask again... what is the problem with speculation and opinion? It gets a hard time. A blog is always going to be one person's take based on the facts available - unless you have 20 guest writers and this is not that kind of 'churn em out' blog.   Regardless, camera companies need younger management and need to get with the internet age.   And I don't mean with gimmicks and low end tacky stuff like selfie cameras, but with serious technology and Apple-like cutting edge innovation.

  What kind of 'average consumer' are we talking about here exactly? Those who bought a high end DSLR in 2012, in which there were lots of buyers, for the 5D Mark III and D800 released that year, see no reason to upgrade and that's one of the reasons for the 2014 drop in supply, due to lower demand. I am pretty sure the buyers at the 5D / D800 level are interested in the specs and not naive. They want 4K, better image quality, innovation. They are also interested in mirrorless functionality that is missing on their DSLRs. They are certainly interested in the GH4 and the A7S if the sales of those are anything to go by.   As for the low end of the consumer market, they are flocking away from DSLRs due to a lack of innovation as well.   Smartphones are more innovative as imaging devices in 2014 and they are giving customers what they need.   If that was merely speculation on my part, the figures and facts would be very different.

What is the problem people have with speculation exactly?   You read EOSHD as much for my opinion I hope, as you do for raw specs, facts and figures.

A typical conversation between a Canon or Nikon rep and a consumer satisfied with their smartphone and existing DSLR would go a bit like this -   Consumer: why do I need this new model. It's expensive!   Rep: it will give you better image quality than your smartphone!   Consumer: but I have taken a lot of nice images with my smartphone (Editor's note: and so have I, because it is always there to capture a special moment, whilst a DSLR isn't)   Rep: [Spouts some technical jargon about sensor size]   Consumer: Hmm   Rep: You can pair it to your smartphone via WiFi for social networks   Consumer: I cannot be bothered. Carrying two devices is impractical on a daily basis. Through sheer laziness I only take photos using my smartphone. Sometimes even on special occasions. Pairing via a WiFi network is slow and complicated. May as well use a card reader. It is of no use to me.   Rep: Hmm   Consumer: I have a 5D Mark III by the way. What do you have to tempt me to upgrade that!?   Rep: Nothing!

Erm, the A7S is targeted at people who understand the specs, having done basic internet research, which is more common than you think and more people are capable of being less stupid than you think when it comes to spending that much on a camera.   The average consumer does not spend $2500 anyway, so it doesn't matter that they don't understand the merits of an A7S. It isn't for them.   There's a good reason why smartphones are so popular as cameras. First of all they've been mainstream for more than a decade, and during those 10 years Canon & Nikon have done absolutely nothing to successfully integrate their imaging devices with the internet era.   All the exciting mainstream imaging stuff has happened in that connected-up smartphone / internet space... Consumers aren't stupid, they value this stuff. DSLRs aren't giving it them.   Think back to 2003 with the Canon 300D - http://***URL removed***/reviews/canoneos300d   The gap between this and the phone cameras of the time was enormous and Facebook didn't even exist.   A lot has changed and Canon have not changed the breed in response.   They are still doing 300Ds just with larger sensors and better image quality.   In video now they are really nowhere.   Where's the revolution?   Also back in 2003 there was a prosumer market for compacts above $1000. These users migrated to DSLRs because of the better image quality and falling prices of DSLRs so they were level with high end compacts. Whereas in 2003 the word 'selfie' did not exist and the masses chose digital cameras based on a price / performance ratio. In 2014 the criteria for selection couldn't be more different. The masses attach more value to the moment, the snapshot. Showing off is rife because of social media, and because phones are carried everywhere, they make very good snapshot / moment getters - they are quick and simple, only one device required to be carried (not lots of separate ones, i.e. camera, iPod, phone) and now image quality is good enough for that people need to do with them.   DSLRs are also a saturated market. Too much supply, too much similarity between models. Supply is now dropping because the demand for so many models just isn't there.   Don't forget also that smartphones have a major price advantage over DSLRs, even now end ones, and that people generally don't want to carry around a brick with them that isn't pocketable. Thin is the trend in smartphones, always has been since the sales success of the Motorola Razr.   DSLRs have no choice but to retreat from the mainstream and become photographer's tools again, and if that means it's a 'niche' by comparison then so be it! More high end models for us and less of the low end crap.

  The Kowa Micro Four Thirds lenses are just rehoused c-mount machine vision lenses apparently according to DPReview.   http://***URL removed***/articles/7889568906/kowa-announces-three-manual-focus-lenses-for-micro-four-thirds   http://www.kowa-usa.com/MV-FA-CCTV/Products.php?Product-Line=XC-Series

I don't see any sign of people getting off the consumerist upgrade bandwagon.   Despite the clear tanking of low end sales (Nikon 1, GF5, EOSHD M etc.) Mirrorless sales haven't dropped in the same way. They're remained steady. This means that if the low end mirrorless crap has tanked in the way I think it has, there's been considerable growth in sales for the more innovative higher end stuff. Clearly people are upgrading for features like 4K video, 5 axis stabilisation, mirrorless full frame lens mounts, mirrorless lenses, Leica M lens compatibility, clean ISO 3200, 14 stop dynamic range and 36MP full frame sensors, classic body styling like the X-T1 and huge EVFs, better video modes, smaller bodies, smaller lenses, more adaptable lenses and perhaps even for better AF in live-view mode (who'd have though it!?)   Canon and Nikon will wake up eventually...

  Because the HDMI output quality drops in stills mode and live-view doesn't always observe the right frame rate.

Your red line on the graph shows exactly what the problem is. The spikes are not random, they are seasonal and predictable. Every year in June there's a spike as people buy DSLRs for the summer holidays and every November there's a spike in the run up to Christmas.   We are now in September and shipments of DSLRs have been flat all summer, the peak months of June and July are half of what they were in 2012. Why?   2013 was already a disappointing year and now this.   There are many kinds of customers. The most casual gave up their DSLR and embraced the smartphone a long time ago, way before June of this year. What is different between the past 3 months and the same 3 months a year or 2 years ago?   Obviously there are multiple things at play here but the fact that DSLRs have not really fundamentally changed with the times and that Canon haven't really done anything genuinely new or interesting since the 5D Mark II in 2008, only reinforces my opinion that overall people are bored of the DSLRs in shops and don't feel the need to buy more.   PS - just seen a new Sony 4K TV, 49" starting at £999 in a shop near me. 4K can no longer be counted on to drive sales and margins it seems. You have to ask yourself why such a low price is necessary to get people to upgrade to 4K.   There's just no easy answer in all of this.

In my opinion...   If you separate high end mirrorless from low end, the growth in high end mirrorless is very promising.   It only looks like it's stagnating due to the low end 'smartphone step up' compact system cameras not selling very well.

It's not as simple as pointing at the whole article and saying it is merely speculation because as I have already pointed out, it is an opinion piece based on some pretty hard facts.   Are you going to be one of these people who can't tell the difference between facts and opinion? The sales are down, fact. The products are to blame, my opinion. It's very simple, anyone who can read English well can separate the facts from opinion in an EOSHD article.

Sensors larger than Super 35mm are a perfectly reasonable proposition in the cinema world, look at the Red Dragon or 65mm.   Putting a full frame sensor in the new Sony would work fine with PL lenses, etc. because it would have a crop mode for Super 35mm.   The issue would be resolution and readout speed. To crop from full frame to S35 and still have 4K2K resolution would make the entire full frame sensor an 8K one, and there ain't no 180fps coming off that for $10k I can tell you now :)

I'd prefer it to have the A7S full frame sensor instead of the F5's, but I don't think it will because one of the big selling points is slow-mo. It will likely do 180fps. I don't think the A7S sensor is capable of that, not even in 1080p.

  You can't speculate with facts! The sales are down. Fact. Fact you have a 7D still after all these years, only reinforces my argument.   Please try better to argue the next time :)

After a while now shooting with the Sony A7S (final part of my review coming soon) I have found it's better to shoot video outside of the Sony movie mode on the dial. Here's how to set up the M stills mode on the dial for movie recording and get two important advantages over Sony's movie mode. Read the full article here

Sony UK have posted this teaser video featuring various video pros and directors of photography, claiming the 'next pro camera' is coming September 12th. I believe this to be a Super 35mm 4K XDCAM with E-mount, positioned around the $10k point to take on the Canon C300. The timing of the announcement coincides exactly with the start of the IBC pro video trade show in Amsterdam.Read the full article here

Data from CIPA, via Personal-View For years on EOSHD I've said that if Canon and Nikon don't innovate with their DSLRs and transition to high end mirrorless technology they risk jeopardising their business. This advice has been met with an arrogance built on a decade of increasing sales. Now in an era of falling shipments both companies have blamed smartphones and the world economy. This is completely unacceptable. It's the products. They're just not good enough. The peak sales periods in each year are normally June and November. According to data from CIPA overall yearly shipments have halved in two years. 800,000 DSLRs in June 2014 of all makes but mostly Canon & Nikon shipped from factories compared to 1.2 million the year before and 1.6m in June 2012. Meanwhile sales at mirrorless system camera manufacturer Olympus are up 22% year on year. There's something even more telling from Olympus in America, previously a market where mirrorless has been a failure, sales in this region saw a huge 70% gain for the OM range. This is despite massive competition from Sony with the A7, etc. Panasonic and Fuji's X range. Read the full article here

  That camcorder though, has a smartphone sized sensor. It doesn't do the same job. I have shot with it and didn't like the image. Large sensor interchangeable lens cameras are a league apart so the pricing of the small chip fixed lens stuff won't have a bearing.

Really nice shots sir.   Looks to perform pretty well. Mine has arrived, will check it out soon.

Following in the footsteps of their highly successful 12mm T1.6 wide angle lens for Micro Four Thirds mount, SLR Magic based in Hong Kong have developed a 10mm T2.1 lens, optimised for cinematic use. I'll be reviewing the new lens very soon on EOSHD, the sample unit having arrived today. This has the potential to be a great wide choice for the GH4 especially in 4K mode where every millimetre counts on that smaller recording area. As for image quality, I have high expectations for the new lens. The existing SLR Magic 12mm T1.6 is a fantastic lens, very characterful, it will be interesting to see what character and performance the 10mm exhibits. Stay tuned to EOSHD to find out. Read the full article here

Interested to see what product Canon uses this for, considering they are supporting it.

They are successful because they hit the sweet spot of boring industry workhorse tool where outright performance (i.e. higher bit depth than 8bit, higher frame rate than 30fps, larger sensor than S35, specialist features like support for anamorphic in 4:3 mode, global shutter, etc.) matters much less than the quick client turnaround from small file sizes. As long as it has a Canon badge, EF mount, S35 sensor, ok low light, ok colour, ok ergonomics, then it hits the sweet spot for a lot of pros - even though overall it is rather a middle of the road camera and not actually that special.   What Canon set out to do is make 'a really good HD camera'. They did that.   The next step is to create a really good 4K camera.   I'm also still waiting for the really good run & gun large sensor camera, because the ergonomics of pretty much everything out there sucks for that.   Manual focus needs a revolution so it is more usable on the small cams.   After all this time I am still waiting for a really good full frame camera that you can focus properly in video mode.   I am waiting for a camera with a decent built in screen which is large enough and high resolution enough to nail focus in 4K from without resorting to a slow magnified focus assist or a dreadful peaking implementation.   I am waiting for a camera that has a built in electronic fly by wire follow focus control, ergonomically integrated to the rest of the camera grip, without having to add a follow focus via your rig.   Ergonomically, cameras are rife for a revolution, so let's have it...

  Why does it have to be such a binary decision "letting all that go"? You need both kinds of understanding to make a film.   And without 120fps this video wouldn't have worked at all.   So you can go on all you like about 'gear not mattering' fact is it does!

  Yes. Hype, brand appeal and the momentum built by Canon in DSLRs, plus a total lack of decent competition in the first two years it was released. And also, the price - $15k upon release - was considered 'entry level' by the pros who bought it, thus it's cheap.

  So global shutter and a lower price are supposed to win it for those cameras over the Sony? I'm not so sure about that. URSA is a mega heavy crew camera, ISO 400 native so needs a lot of light, no real slow-mo capabilities certainly not FS700 240fps level and URSA as a docking station for a different camera head is again a very different tool for different jobs. So I'm not sure they are really competing head to head... maybe for 10% of jobs. The Cion shares the same BMPC sensor so again, good luck shooting above ISO 400 with that. The file sizes are also huge. 4K XAVC is very manageable in terms of file sizes. This is very important.