I voted no because while I think Vimeo On Demand changes the game it will have a mild effect on the industry for the simple reason that it does not change the players. What I realized from analyzing the 5D revolution is that the imaginary army of Tarantino's and Rodriguezs' I expected to hit the Internet never materialized. Instead, production was made more affordable for existing filmmakers, who would've been shooting films even without 5D's appearance.
No technological band-aid, whether easier production with 5D or distribution with Vimeo will change the fact that in the end it is only the human factor that counts for 99% of success in filmmaking, - the ability to deliver amazing content and that seems to be a very finite resource. While there have been some decent films from new directors around the internet here and there, much of new content created were just wedding videos, docs and sentimental DOF slideshows titled as "films" without any narrative story or dialogue.
The most interesting filmmakers to appear in the last 5 years like Garreth Edwards, Neil Blompkamp and Gareth Evans came very much from traditional industry means and were either funded and distributed through the old traditional means. ( Though Blomkamp did gain through YouTube exposure ) So where are our Internet filmmaking stars? Vincent LaForet, Philip Bloom and Shane Hurlbut were all seasoned professionals before 5D revolution hit, so we can't credit technology ( whether 5D, Netflix, Amazon, Vimeo or YouTube ) to their success.
So I think Vimeo On Demand will make life easier for existing filmmakers. Like the Don Hertzfeldton above. There will be a handful of decent films ( mostly docs ) coming out, but mostly the quality of content from new players will be average, if that. I remember the iTunes store first opened Steve Jobs was asked why Apple makes it so difficult for independently produced musicians/filmmakers to get distribution there. ( You still have to go through an intermediary company that must be vetted by Apple, and that still doesn't guarantee distribution. ) His response was very blunt, - "We only want good content." He was clearly implying that indies were not up to standard. It made me mad at the time, but over the years I ended up agreeing with him.
I'm looking forward to seeing some good docs and niche films on Vimeo from veteran filmmakers that I could only catch at festivals otherwise, but to catch the next Tarantino I will still head for the traditional cinema.
I hope to be proven wrong.
mtheory