noone Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Thom Hogan might have an idea in regards to Nikon's management. Nikon is owned by the banks and financial institutions effectively. http://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon/about-nikon/nikon-in-2018.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronFilm Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 3 hours ago, BTM_Pix said: But yes we are niche bordering on endangered species. You're a niche's niche! 3 hours ago, squig said: We'll be the only guys in 2028 with mirror boxes. That is "only" ten years ago. I still use the D90 once every few months. Bet I'll be using a future "D750mk2" once every few months as well in 2028 3 hours ago, squig said: Fuji figured this out, and alas Fuji cameras have ISO dials, aperture rings, very analog flim-like profiles, and short flange distance so you can adapt lots of vintage glass. I really did enjoy my Fujifilm XF1/XQ1, is a pity I broke/lost three of them while drunk.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squig Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Niche's drive sales, look at what the 5D Mk2 started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronFilm Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, squig said: Niche's drive sales, look at what the 5D Mk2 started. Purely by accident too! Canon could have put video in the 50D. But only finally did this in the 5Dmk2 because Nikon forced their hand with the Nikon D90 1 hour ago, kye said: There was a famous example where someone asked a Japanese philosopher what the impacts of The Great Fire of London was, and his answer (over 300 years after the event) was "it's too soon to tell". Yes, that's a ridiculous example, but it's indicative of the culture. Sooooo... do you know yet now the impacts of The Great Fire of London? TwoScoops 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squig Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, IronFilm said: That is "only" ten years ago. Are you saying you're from the future? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronFilm Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Aussie Ash said: Nikon and Canon both have small light DSLRs as well but seem to have treated APS-C as the ugly step sister undeserving of a proper lens It is by far one of Thom Hogan's favorite topics to hammer away on is the massive failure of Nikon (Canon is kinda guilty of this too. And even Sony!) to produce a strong line up of DX lenses. Thank goodness for Sigma (18-35mm + 50-100mm) and Tokina (11-20) for filling in these big gaps! 1 hour ago, Lovund said: The Full Frame Nikon Mirrorless is being launched in Photokina this year. That is where the smart money is on that date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squig Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 30 minutes ago, IronFilm said: That is where the smart money is on that date. Nikon will know how the next hundred years is going to play out for them when they see everybody lining up to get a glimpse of the A7sIII. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kye Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Robert Collins said: Well Keynes famously wrote that 'in the long run, we are all dead' And I dont buy the whole Japanese corporate philosophy and as this chart of the Nikkei shows the index is still 40% off its highs - 29 years ago !!! . But personally I wouldnt trust any 'camera company' that told me they could see '10 years into the future' let alone '100.' Please look at this much more appropriate graph and tell me that there you can't see a general trend going on here...... And if you don't think that's a viewpoint they'll be taking then consider that their company was founded slightly to the left of where your screen stops. and in terms of "in the long run we're all dead", please see the following: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/02/japans-oldest-businesses-have-lasted-more-than-a-thousand-years/385396/ and tell me that in the context of Business Planning that long-term thinking doesn't apply? 40 minutes ago, IronFilm said: Sooooo... do you know yet now the impacts of The Great Fire of London? Nope. But It's not too early to google them if I cared 4 minutes ago, squig said: Nikon will know how the next hundred years is going to play out for them when they see everybody lining up to get a glimpse of the A7sIII. and when they compare the length of the line to the total length of the lines around the world of people lining up to buy iPhones.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronFilm Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Robert Collins said: Well Keynes famously wrote that 'in the long run, we are all dead' Nah f*ck Keynes. Robert Collins 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcio Kabke Pinheiro Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Only thinking that expecting 10-bit and 4K60 form this initial batch of Nikon FF mirrorless will lead to disappoitment. They want to compete (I guess) in stills at the start - with Sony, in fact. Probably they will put video specs to only match the Sony stills cameras - 4k30, 8 bit, and Log, nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronFilm Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, kye said: Please look at this much more appropriate graph and tell me that there you can't see a general trend going on here...... Analogue was thriving! Until 1997.... 22 minutes ago, kye said: Nope. But It's not too early to google them if I cared I tried! But couldn't find in google the quote about the Japanese philosopher on The Great Fire of London kye 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Collins Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, kye said: 20 minutes ago, kye said: Please look at this much more appropriate graph and tell me that there you can't see a general trend going on here...... I think your graph is a little misleading. Actually.... 1) Smartphone sales fell (slightly) last year http://www.businessinsider.com/smartphone-sales-are-decreasing-2018-2 2) And were down 21% yoy in 1Q this year in China. https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/26/report-chinese-smartphone-shipments-drop-21-to-reach-lowest-level-since-2013/ 3) Meanwhile mirrorless ILC sales were up 48% (in value) in 2017 over 2016 which was itself a record year for mirrorless (CIPA). and when they compare the length of the line to the total length of the lines around the world of people lining up to buy iPhones.... Actually it is the lengths of these graphs that makes me optimistic for ILC cameras. In 2017 there were 1500m smartphones sold and 13m ILCs - that is less than 1%!! But every new smartphone buyer is a potential buyer of a 'better camera' - it is perhaps why we see the highest percentage of ILC buyers being under 30 for 20 years (CIPA). But then again I am optimistic about ILC camera sales over the next 20 years (and I may well be wrong.) If you thought that ILC cameras were going to die you wouldnt actually be a shareholder in a camera company. And being a shareholder in a camera company whose management doesnt believe in the future of digital cameras is something of an oxymoron. kye 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kye Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 2 hours ago, IronFilm said: I tried! But couldn't find in google the quote about the Japanese philosopher on The Great Fire of London I recall reading it in a book, but I'm not sure which one. If only the internet contained all knowledge! It used to only contain things that were new, but archiving is making progress thankfully, although how much of that archiving is behind paywalls is concerning, but probably a discussion for another day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kye Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 @Robert Collins I get your point, and your stats aren't wrong. However, when I look at that graph I think a few things: Camera sales are through the roof Smartphones have eaten compact cameras almost completely Mirrorless is a relatively new product category If I put myself in the shoes of a Nikon exec I think I would see: Nikon was a leader in film cameras, which were eaten completely by digital, but Nikon adapted Compact cameras sold like hotcakes but sales are basically gone Non smartphone sales are down to almost 1/6th of what they were less than 8 years ago Nikon is unlikely to get into the smartphone game In terms of what is next, smartphones are going to start to erode the DSLR/Mirrorless market, they're introducing longer focal lengths, simulating shallow DoF, and getting better in low light. These are all things that you used to need a 'big camera' for. I don't really know what Nikon should do, unless they have another side of their business that I don't know about, they might be cornered at this point from digital convergence on one side and rabid innovation from the likes of Sony and m43 on the other. One question that would be interesting to know is what is the typical pay-back period on designing a new camera system? Is it 5 years? 10 years? I have no idea, but you'd be silly to invest funds into a bold move if the market doesn't look like it can be relied upon to pay it back, even if you do it properly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercer Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 If Nikon is really going to implement IBIS, then I really hope that they make all of their lenses compatible and not just ai on. Honestly I still think a new mount sounds silly but maybe the adapter will be an interchangeable lockable F mount and not just a clunky adapter. Sadly, it seems like Nikon will try to take on Sony by making a small bodied FF camera... it will probably overheat. Hopefully Canon is smart enough to release an EF Mount FF mirrorless, shaped like a DSLR. And with the extra room they can add a great IBIS system and possibly some internal NDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webrunner5 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 8 hours ago, squig said: We'll be the only guys in 2028 with mirror boxes. The evolution of digital cameras reminds me of the evolution of digital synthesizers. In the 70's synths were fat sounding analog beasts (I still have my Roland Jupiter 8), covered in knobs and sliders, built to create. In the 80's digital synths lost the fatness and the knobs, you spent more time reading the manual than you did creating. Now 30 years later the big synth manufacturers have finally figured out what people want and it's all analog or analog modelling covered with knobs. The same thing happened with digital cameras, aperture rings and ISO dials disappeared, and you had to study the manual just to do what used to be simple things, cameras stopped being fun. Fuji figured this out, and alas Fuji cameras have ISO dials, aperture rings, very analog flim-like profiles, and short flange distance so you can adapt lots of vintage glass. Corporate marketing people are clueless. Yeah I have had a Ton of analog, digital synthesizers from the start much to my first wife's chagrin.. I always laugh when I see someone with an old Moog using it to sound mostly like a Piano! ? 6 hours ago, Aussie Ash said: I know several retired chaps that have had enough of lugging around bulky Full frame Nikon and lenses and jumped ship to Fujifilm APS-C. Nikon and Canon both have small light DSLRs as well but seem to have treated APS-C as the ugly step sister undeserving of a proper lens lineup. Fujifilm have a huge headstart too-the fullest range of proper APS-C lenses -14 primes,10 zooms and two cine zooms. The X-T3 is supposed to be announced at photokina with new sensor and processor, Nikon will loose more of their existing customers if they continue to allocate minimal development to their DX systems . You know in this day and age I don't really see any need, other than Maybe slightly smaller lenses for them , for a APSC camera at all! I think even Fuji is stupid still pushing them. With Mirrorless FF cameras so small there is no need in hell for them now. I bet the Sony A7 mk III has a smaller body than the Fuji XT2. And it is. Now how stupid is that!! And another dumb ass thing when I looked up that size comparison, is that Fuji must have 20 different models of APSC cameras. Even dumber... https://camerasize.com/compare/#777,679 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Collins Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, kye said: @Robert Collins I get your point, and your stats aren't wrong. However, when I look at that graph I think a few things: Camera sales are through the roof Smartphones have eaten compact cameras almost completely Mirrorless is a relatively new product category If I put myself in the shoes of a Nikon exec I think I would see: Nikon was a leader in film cameras, which were eaten completely by digital, but Nikon adapted Compact cameras sold like hotcakes but sales are basically gone Non smartphone sales are down to almost 1/6th of what they were less than 8 years ago Nikon is unlikely to get into the smartphone game In terms of what is next, smartphones are going to start to erode the DSLR/Mirrorless market, they're introducing longer focal lengths, simulating shallow DoF, and getting better in low light. These are all things that you used to need a 'big camera' for. I don't really know what Nikon should do, unless they have another side of their business that I don't know about, they might be cornered at this point from digital convergence on one side and rabid innovation from the likes of Sony and m43 on the other. One question that would be interesting to know is what is the typical pay-back period on designing a new camera system? Is it 5 years? 10 years? I have no idea, but you'd be silly to invest funds into a bold move if the market doesn't look like it can be relied upon to pay it back, even if you do it properly. I get your point but I mostly disagree on a conceptual level. I am somewhat positive on the digital camera you are negative (as are most people.) No problem - time will tell. But where I have a problem is this. Imagine you invested in a 'tech mutual fund'. Why would you do this? Well because you thought that tech stocks are going to rise. Right? So imagine if your tech fund manager decided that tech stock prices were too high and instead of investing your money actually sold the stocks and put it on deposit. What would happen? Well if stock prices rose you would be royally pissed off because you would see no gain and you invested solely on the basis that you would see a gain if stock prices rose. And if tech stock prices fell? Well you would be better off but only in the sense that you didnt expect to be - on the basis that the fund manager had done the exact opposite of what you wanted. And this is what Thom Hogan means by the fact that Nikon is being run by 'bankers'. Who really have little interest in what the company invests in apart from whether they get their dividend at the end of the day. Sony have been very aggressive in the ILC market - whether it will prove right or wrong only time will tell. But to me the management of the Nikon brand taking the view that the brand and its products are going nowhere is not in the interests of shareholders - because if shareholders believed that they wouldnt be shareholders in the first place. IronFilm and kye 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webrunner5 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 8 hours ago, BTM_Pix said: I have an SD Quattro and the snout is not only big enough to contain a variable ND but the chicken dinner as well. Which one you have, The H or the regular model, and how do you like it? I have had a lot of Sigmas. And I have considered the H model. But I hate to buy a set of new lenses to me for one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Members BTM_Pix Posted July 5, 2018 Super Members Share Posted July 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, webrunner5 said: Which one you have, The H or the regular model, and how do you like it? I have had a lot of Sigmas. And I have considered the H model. But I hate to buy a set of new lenses to me for one. The regular one. There was a used one at a daft price on my Japan trip and some equally cheap used lenses. The H one has a bit of a drawback (aside from the much higher price especially against used regular ones) in that lenses like the 18-35 vignette on it. The annoying thing is that the only mount converter you can get is an M42 one. Thats not a disaster in and of itself because there are tons of affordable great lenses from yesteryear in M42 but it would be great if you could get a C/Y or Nikon adapter. Leitax do a mount replacement for Leica R lenses but that then restricts you to only using the lenses on the SA mount. With a bit of fiddling and snipping you can mount PK lenses on it which opens up the possibility of using the PK mount as a conduit for other lenses via a C/Y to PK adapter etc. but its not something I've tried. The smart route really if you shoot video on Sony is to buy SA mount versions of the ART lenses and use the SA version of the MC-11 to put them on e mount. The SA versions of the ART lenses tend to pop up used or ex-demo at dealers for cheaper as well. As for the camera itself ? If you absorb the Foveon way and accept and work within those parameters (i.e. slow everything) then its a bit of a monster. Being able to use lenses with IS addresses one part of the slow though and it having the option to write DNG so you can have a workflow that doesn't include Sigma's own processing app addresses another part of it as well. Its build solidly, has great ergonomics and just feels like a proper camera. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercer Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 @BTM_Pix since you can record right to DNG, can you natively open those stills in Resolve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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