Nikon FF Mirrorless

[Andrew Reid]

Nikon have patented their own version of dual pixel autofocus.

https://www.diyphotography.net/nikon-mirrorless-camera-may-dual-pixel-autofocus-tech-according-new-patent/

We could well be seeing that in the new mirrorless cameras.

2 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

Well its all good speculation. I certainly dont think Nikon would introduce a poor camera for their first serious mirrorless but I think it will be a 'solid' entry rather than anything too groundbreaking. Two reasons...

1) Timing. I think if Nikon had a mirrorless up their sleeve that would 'blow away' Sony they would have already released it much earlier. The timing looks entirely 'defensive' to me. Nikon  'needs' FF mirrorless 'now' in response to the success of Sony's A7x3 cameras or risk eroding their client base..

2) Marketing 'lite'...

Look at this photo taken at a marketing shoot....

This is marketing 'lite' - it is far more Nikon 1 than D850. This girl is young, female and appreciates that the mirrorless is lighter. She doesnt go out in the sun (or the rain) or go parkour jumping.....

If you assume the leaked specs and price are correct, there's no need to think it will be anything approaching a 'lite' mirrorless camera.

Leaked ad campaign looks good. It's a Chinese one with a very famous actress. Not much unusual about that. If you want to read that much into a leaked BTS photo from one ad campaign because there isn't a serious pro photographer holding the camera...well... haha. Maybe if the leaked specs didn't mention a $3000 price tag and full frame 46MP sensor with 4K video.

It's great that the Sony monopoly on full frame mirrorless cameras (Leica aside) has come to an end.

There will be the Canon offering before too long as well, and then maybe Olympus / Panasonic will jump into the full frame mirrorless wars.

More competition = better cameras.

[DBounce]

I have to agree with @Andrew Reid at this expected price point it would be in flagship territory for a mirrorless camera. I personally expect big things from this camera... let’s hope I’m correct.

[Andrew Reid]

Could be like a D850 with dual pixel AF in a mirrorless form factor.

100% perfect compatibility with F-mount lenses and a range of new ones.

May introduce a Nikon LOG profile and extra video goodies.

Ergonomics look nice.

A lot to be excited about but it has a high bar to match in the cheaper A7 III

[mercer]

And they wouldn’t even need to tweak their Flat Profile too much... it’s already LogLite.

For me, the adapter will be key for my decision to go Nikon mirrorless or Canon. Since a lot of rumors state that Canon will go EF, I may stick with them.

[DBounce]

Let’s hope for 10 bit.

[Robert Collins]

47 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

Nikon have patented their own version of dual pixel autofocus.

https://www.diyphotography.net/nikon-mirrorless-camera-may-dual-pixel-autofocus-tech-according-new-patent/

We could well be seeing that in the new mirrorless cameras.

If you assume the leaked specs and price are correct, there's no need to think it will be anything approaching a 'lite' mirrorless camera.

I didnt say I thought the camera would be a 'lite' mirrorless - just that it would be a 'solid' first FF mirrorless that was not too 'groundbreaking'. No reason to doubt the leaked specs or price but I dont think Nikon has to 'outdo' Sony for their mirrorless to sell well at that pricepoint.

 

47 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

Leaked ad campaign looks good. It's a Chinese one with a very famous actress. Not much unusual about that. If you want to read that much into a leaked BTS photo from one ad campaign because there isn't a serious pro photographer holding the camera...well... haha. Maybe if the leaked specs didn't mention a $3000 price tag and full frame 46MP sensor with 4K video.

We are all speculating on relatively little information. You might think I am being spurious by making some guesses based on a marketing campaign photo but if you look at the D850/D750/Nikon 1/DF the underlying tone and capability of the camera is reflected in their marketing campaign. On the other hand, I think it is totally spurious to assume it will have Nikon's own version of dual pixel af based on 1 of several thousand of Nikon patents!!

 

47 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

It's great that the Sony monopoly on full frame mirrorless cameras (Leica aside) has come to an end.

There will be the Canon offering before too long as well, and then maybe Olympus / Panasonic will jump into the full frame mirrorless wars.

More competition = better cameras.

Cant argue with any of that - the better the camera that Nikon produces, the better it is for any FF mirrorless consumer. And monopolies pretty much always exist at the expense of both price and innovation.

Actually my biggest concern is Sony's stranglehold on image sensor fabrication for dedicated cameras. Hopefully that will change in a couple of years when Towerjazz has modernized its factories in the team up with Nikon.

 

[Django]

I am so hyped for this camera. Even just D850 video specs with IBIS would probably be enough to win me over.

I don't need all the picture customization of sony's. Dare i say i wouldn't even need log profile.

Nikon color science (and flat profile) is that nice:

I guess i'm already sold, but of course if Nikon nail video AF and get it close to dual pixel goodness, it might even be game over for Canon.

 

[jonpais]

Since all I shoot is video, some things important to me are: a headphone jack, good preamps, a fully functioning remote app (no 720p video like the X-T2!), full HDMI out, zebras, live histogram, dual card recording, legible display info (Fuji at long last answered my prayers!), long life battery (please, no dumb battery grip!), precise and highly visible focus peaking (a la Sony), good IBIS (Sony, not so much!), silent and instantaneous AF-C in video mode, no crop in 4K, face detect in 4K, PDAF in 4K, little to no moire, large grip, ability to program all frequently used menu items to fn buttons by depressing them for two seconds, ability to record higher quality to external recorder, fast native primes (16, 35, 50, 85mm), shutter angle, weather sealing, file structure that isn’t insane like the a7 III, HLG 10-bit, an LCD with greater than a measly 1 million pixels, good customer support. Things I can live without: touch screen, firmware updates every three months fixing bugs and adding features that should’ve been there in the first place, joy stick, exposure compensation dial, fully articulating LCD, EVF, locking mode dial, shoulder e-ink LCD.

[Drew Allegre]

5 minutes ago, Django said:

I am so hyped for this camera. Even just D850 video specs with IBIS would probably be enough to win me over.

I don't need all the picture customization of sony's. Dare i say i wouldn't even need log profile.

I guess i'm already sold, but of course if Nikon nail video AF and get it close to dual pixel goodness, it might even be game over for Canon.

 

I'm with you.  A "mirrorless D850" that combines Nikon IQ, ergonomics, and build quality with top of the line mirrorless AF and IBIS would be pretty incredible.

Canon would need to make some fundamental improvements to a "mirrorless 5DIV" to win me back.

[Andrew Reid]

Canikon probably won't let a mirrorless camera completely out-spec their top-end DSLRs, so the D850 is a much nicer benchmark to aim for than that wet fish, the 5D IV. Also there are important differences between Nikon and Canon when it comes to video... Nikon has no pro-video division profit margins to protect.

If the Canon mirrorless is going to be a full frame M50, with 5D Mk IV sensor and 4K MJPEG, I ain't buying it.

[Trek of Joy]

5 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

Well its all good speculation. I certainly dont think Nikon would introduce a poor camera for their first serious mirrorless but I think it will be a 'solid' entry rather than anything too groundbreaking. Two reasons...

1) Timing. I think if Nikon had a mirrorless up their sleeve that would 'blow away' Sony they would have already released it much earlier. The timing looks entirely 'defensive' to me. Nikon  'needs' FF mirrorless 'now' in response to the success of Sony's A7x3 cameras or risk eroding their client base..

The timing makes a lot of sense for Nikon, what they're doing has zero to do with any Sony release given the fact product development cycles spans years. They pushed out the flagship DSLR d850 first, which for Nikon was the right move since the d800/810 was a little long in the tooth and there was obviously pent up demand for a new model. By all accounts its worked pretty well for them. They've also been restructuring the company, including manufacturing.

They aren't trying to blow away Sony, they've said they're not going to rush into mirrorless until it fits what they're doing - presumably seamless integration of current lenses and a user experience that mirrors (pun intended) its DSLR success. IMO a major part of the focus (more puns) will be the AF, and the time they've taken in development was to get it right. Their initial efforts can't be like the original A7's, which had a number of significant issues. Rushing a half baked product to market would be more damaging than having nothing since there was no pressure from actual consumers for them to take mirrorless seriously. Their market share equals everyone else combined sans Canon, despite no mirrorless. Nikon currently has about twice the market share of Sony, and with Nikon now taking mirrorless seriously, they never will overtake them. 

Canon's looming high end mirrorless will put even more of a squeeze on Sony. I'm betting Sony's number dips in next years market share report. 

Chris

 

[jonpais]

@Trek of Joy I'd like to see a breakdown of how many of those users are videographers. My guess would be that Nikon would be dead last.

[Trek of Joy]

2 hours ago, mercer said:

And they wouldn’t even need to tweak their Flat Profile too much... it’s already LogLite.

For me, the adapter will be key for my decision to go Nikon mirrorless or Canon. Since a lot of rumors state that Canon will go EF, I may stick with them.

Given the EF registry distance, that rumor makes no sense. Supposedly they have a number of prototypes, likely a EF mount is one for testing purposes, but a mirrorless body would be unnecessarily DSLR fat with an EF mount. If 3rd parties can make EF adapters that give native lens performance on a Sony body, I'm pretty sure Canon can do the same with it own system. 

3 minutes ago, jonpais said:

@Trek of Joy I'd like to see a breakdown of how many of those users are videographers. My guess would be that Nikon would be dead last.

Why does that matter? A vast majority of the buying public has no clue about rolling shutter, or what Slog is or how to use it.

[jonpais]

2 minutes ago, Trek of Joy said:

Why does that matter? A vast majority of the buying public has no clue about rolling shutter, or what Slog is or how to use it.

My point is that you might be right about market share, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with buying decisions for filmmakers. And if, as some seem to gleefully hope, Sony goes under, there will be less competition, not more. 

[Andrew Reid]

Do Fuji, Panasonic, Olympus and Pentax really fight over just 13% of the market between the 4 of them?

The numbers seem a bit off to me, given what we know about the strong Fuji sales in particular.

[Danyyyel]

2 hours ago, Django said:

I am so hyped for this camera. Even just D850 video specs with IBIS would probably be enough to win me over.

I don't need all the picture customization of sony's. Dare i say i wouldn't even need log profile.

Nikon color science (and flat profile) is that nice:

I guess i'm already sold, but of course if Nikon nail video AF and get it close to dual pixel goodness, it might even be game over for Canon.

As a Nikon avid pro user who has been repeatedly disapointed, I am banking only for a Nikon d850 video spec, nothing more and nothing less. My guess with the size of the mount is that we will get very good IBIS and autofocus. I would have liked 10 bit , log and super slomotion but I don't even count on it. Some higher bitrate codec would be very very good also. A 50 mbit HD and 200 mbit 4k would also be a dream. But even if it is a d850 with its super good video quality, with added very good IBIS and  auto-focus would make it a very very good video camera that would cater for 90+ of my need. With the advent of the BMPC 4k, It would compliment it for shooting that 10% work that would need 10 bit etc. Just add an adapter for Full frame lens and these shoot would be much more controlled anyway, so IBIS and auto-focus would not be that important. The rumored 24 megapixel model, I think would be better for video as we would normally get less rolling shutter and even better low light.

 

[Lenscamera]

Come August 23rd I think two things will happen

A) More orders for the A7III will go in or

B) Lots of people will be waiting to pre-orders the Nikon (what ever the name will be) 

I am one of those people waiting to decide and I hope Nikon brings something to the table worth competing with the A7III especially in the video department. Great times!

[BTM_Pix]

8 minutes ago, Lenscamera said:

Come August 23rd I think two things will happen

A) More orders for the A7III will go in or

B) Lots of people will be waiting to pre-orders the Nikon (what ever the name will be) 

You missed out 

C) The official announcement on DPReview becoming a shitshow

[Kisaha]

Even Canonikon board members admitted that they underestimated the mirrorless sales dynamic.

When Nikon is 3rd in US full frame sales (at least for some months) and Canon/Sigma/Tamron sell more lenses in Japan (first time ever I guess), and mirrorless sales are 35-50% of the ILC in various markets, and Nikon do not compete yet, then I am not so sure that they are free and happy about their position in the market.

Nikon mirrorless has to be a success.

By all the metrics I have seen, Olympus is selling very well in mirrorless (1st in Japan with Canon 2nd).

I dare to say that Fuji must be barely above Pentax.

https://www.google.gr/amp/s/nikonrumors.com/2017/04/14/sony-pushed-nikon-from-the-2-spot-in-u-s-full-frame-interchangeable-lens-camera-market.aspx/amp/

https://photorumors.com/2018/01/16/the-2018-bcn-camera-rankings-are-out/

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc-2017_e.html

[Andrew Reid]

It depends on the region. I see far more Fujis in peoples hands around UK and Europe than Pentax DSLRs, that's for sure. The shops have far more room dedicated to Fuji's cameras than Pentax, and the unit shipments don't take into account the fact higher priced models ship in smaller numbers, but might take a larger proportion of the market by value than by unit numbers.

Of course Canon and Nikon getting into mirrorless is a severe storm for Fuji, Panasonic and Olympus. They are going to get squeezed. It should prompt all 3 to go full frame, so we win in the end.