Nikon FF Mirrorless

[noone]

I don't see that many ILCs around at all.

Those I do see tend to be either low end DSLRs from Canon and Nikon but just recently, the higher level and FF ones have been changing from Canon and Nikon to Sony FF.    It started with some just adding a Sony but in the last couple of months there have been a few switchers.

 

It seems my beloved A7s may have just died this morning.       I hope it can be repaired at a reasonable price otherwise I am going to be without a camera of choice for some time and may have to pick up a cheap DSLR or older APSC Sony to be able to shoot something at least (though I will really miss the low light ability of the A7s).      I could not afford to switch to the new Nikon at all.

I COULD sell my better lenses but that would be just as bad and no way I could ever replace my 17 TS-E now if I sold it.

[Trek of Joy]

9 hours ago, jonpais said:

My point is that you might be right about market share, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with buying decisions for filmmakers. And if, as some seem to gleefully hope, Sony goes under, there will be less competition, not more. 

Sony isn't going anywhere. That's not what I was talking about.

8 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

Do Fuji, Panasonic, Olympus and Pentax really fight over just 13% of the market between the 4 of them?

The numbers seem a bit off to me, given what we know about the strong Fuji sales in particular.

Canon's annual report had them just below 50% market share, these numbers seem to jive with that.

A couple years ago Olympus forecasted sales of 500k bodies in one of its reports for the following year. Given last years numbers of 11.7 million, that's just under 5%, which seem about right.

[IronFilm]

10 hours ago, Drew Allegre said:

I'm with you.  A "mirrorless D850" that combines Nikon IQ, ergonomics, and build quality with top of the line mirrorless AF and IBIS would be pretty incredible.

Canon would need to make some fundamental improvements to a "mirrorless 5DIV" to win me back.

Agreed, the D850 is so developed that simply a "mirrorless D850" would have a shot at success. 
While a "mirrorless 5Dmk4" would have no chance. 

[Trek of Joy]

7 hours ago, Kisaha said:

By all the metrics I have seen, Olympus is selling very well in mirrorless (1st in Japan with Canon 2nd).

Canon has overtaken Olympus in mirrorless

https://photorumors.com/2018/07/22/bcn-ranking-japan-canon-is-1-in-the-mirrorless-market-for-2018/

[jonpais]

24 minutes ago, Trek of Joy said:

Sony isn't going anywhere. That's not what I was talking about.

Yeah, I realize it now.

I still insist though that were we to count the market share according to those using Canon, Nikon and Sony for videography alone, those pie charts would be turned on their head.

Does it have any relevance to the point you were making? Probably not. But from my perspective, it is impossible to say whether anyone entered the mirrorless market too early or too late just from looking at those pie charts.

People will buy shit like the 6D mkII no matter how weak it is, and Canon’s mirrorless offerings may fly off the shelves at the moment, but I’d never go near one.

Sales figures don’t mean anything to me.

If Andrew is correct, and I believe he is, Nikon’s not going to endanger sales of their DSLRs by giving away budget mirrorless cameras loaded with all kinds of features videographers want to see at half the price of a D850 (to compete with the a7 III). So @ntblowz may get his wish after all - decent AF and IBIS in a mirrorless body, but not much else new aside from the mount. 

And by the time the Nikon is rolled out in 2019, Sony will have yet again improved (borrowed from the Venice) color and ergonomics; they’ll have a slightly less convoluted menu system with a fully usable touch screen; will have added a half dozen more superb lenses to their already excellent lineup of FF lenses and who knows what else. 

[IronFilm]

9 minutes ago, jonpais said:

If Andrew is correct, and I believe he is, Nikon’s not going to endanger sales of their DSLRs by giving away budget mirrorless cameras loaded with all kinds of features videographers want to see at half the price of a D850 (to compete with the a7 III). So @ntblowz may get his wish after all - decent AF and IBIS in a mirrorless body, but not much else new aside from the mount. 

If Nikon is smart enough to realize that mirrorless is the future (which I'm sure they realize, they and us probably just disagree on the timing of it) then they will surely try to make their mirrorless as good as they can because they will not mind if a person buys their "mirrorless D850" or an actual D850, as a sale is a sale!

In fact they might even prefer a buyer gets their "mirrorless D850" as that will help lock the buyer into the future Nikon ecosystem, while someone who stays with their DSLRs still has a risk that when s/he makes the leap to mirrorless from their D850 that they might not get a Nikon mirrorless but instead will leak to some other competing system.  

[jonpais]

The more I ponder it, the less likely I believe we are of seeing anything revolutionary at all.

[kye]

11 hours ago, Django said:

I am so hyped for this camera. Even just D850 video specs with IBIS would probably be enough to win me over.

I don't need all the picture customization of sony's. Dare i say i wouldn't even need log profile.

Nikon color science (and flat profile) is that nice:

I guess i'm already sold, but of course if Nikon nail video AF and get it close to dual pixel goodness, it might even be game over for Canon.

That video is just wonderful..  Normally I remove videos when I quote posts, but it deserves a bump!!

One of the things that struck me was the DR.  I'm no expert, but the highlights looked soft (ie, not harsh) and the shadows looked nice too, with nice mid-tones.  People keep talking about skin tones when 'colour science' gets mentioned, but more and more I think (for my eyes at least) it's the DR and highlights that really matter.

As an example, the video above is in direct contrast to the below video that was shot on Canon, where the highlights look clipped / harsh / videoish.

To be fair, Matti could have shot this on his 1DXII or his 6DII, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't shoot log, so it won't be using the full DR from the sensor, and it's also some pretty difficult lighting conditions, and he might have also rushed the grade (considering he's travelling with friends and family and trying to vlog at the same time), but yeah, it's not nice.

However, to also be fair to the Nikon D850 video as well, there are lots of shots in there with quite challenging lighting conditions too.

I was saying that my shortlist was the A7III, Pocket 4K, Canon FF ML and Nikon FF ML, but I think Nikon has just gone from an academic inclusion to an option I will take seriously!

8 hours ago, Lenscamera said:

Come August 23rd I think two things will happen

A) More orders for the A7III will go in or

B) Lots of people will be waiting to pre-orders the Nikon (what ever the name will be) 

I am one of those people waiting to decide and I hope Nikon brings something to the table worth competing with the A7III especially in the video department. Great times!

You missed out the people waiting for the Canon FF mirrorless.  The consensus is that it's unlikely Canon will do anything revolutionary, but there's still a chance, and I think there will be quite a few people waiting to see what that looks like before ordering anything.  Also, those on the fence about the Pocket 2 might wait to see sample footage and reviews start trickling in, considering the initial issues / bugs that BM had with the Pocket 1.

[jonpais]

I don’t see the batcam even competing in the same space as these hybrids. The P4K is a straight up cinema camera. 

[kye]

23 minutes ago, jonpais said:

I don’t see the batcam even competing in the same space as these hybrids. The P4K is a straight up cinema camera. 

It won't be a direct competitor, no.  But for some people who are in between, it might be a toss up between two options that only partially provide what they want.  I know this won't be that many people though.

[Yurolov]

According to the rumor sites olympus is putting out another high end camera early 2019 with 'advanced video features'. These are two companies that have nothing to protect in terms of high-end video gear so they are of most interest to me. I don't think we will see anything great from canon but I don't see why nikon couldn't go all out in terms of video - unless there are some contractual obligations we aren't aware of. 

Needless to say, I think m4/3 has a place in the video sphere if they are able to improve their ibis. Olympus has the best, and they are said to have made it even better. For me an ideal situation for a small mirrorless camera, one that is competitive,  is one that has ibis good enough to where u can chuck out your gimbal. Couple that with good video af and you have the perfect run and gun combo. I think this is where their market is. 

[Robert Collins]

40 minutes ago, Yurolov said:

According to the rumor sites olympus is putting out another high end camera early 2019 with 'advanced video features'. These are two companies that have nothing to protect in terms of high-end video gear so they are of most interest to me. I don't think we will see anything great from canon but I don't see why nikon couldn't go all out in terms of video - unless there are some contractual obligations we aren't aware of. 

Needless to say, I think m4/3 has a place in the video sphere if they are able to improve their ibis. Olympus has the best, and they are said to have made it even better. For me an ideal situation for a small mirrorless camera, one that is competitive,  is one that has ibis good enough to where u can chuck out your gimbal. Couple that with good video af and you have the perfect run and gun combo. I think this is where their market is. 

I am not sure the concept of crippling the video of a 'MILC' to protect your high end video gear actually makes any economic sense in the current market. It seems to me that MILCs are something of a sweet spot for video because they are video cameras largely paid for by still photographers in large numbers. And if you consider say a Sony A9 can shoot 20fps, FF, 24mp in 12 bit 'real' raw for US$4k - you can imagine what the possibilities are for video going forward.

Seems to me that crippling a MILC to protect your cinema cameras is rather akin to crippling a mobile phone camera to protect your compact cameras.

[jonpais]

 

1 hour ago, Yurolov said:

According to the rumor sites olympus is putting out another high end camera early 2019 with 'advanced video features'. These are two companies that have nothing to protect in terms of high-end video gear so they are of most interest to me. I don't think we will see anything great from canon but I don't see why nikon couldn't go all out in terms of video - unless there are some contractual obligations we aren't aware of. 

Needless to say, I think m4/3 has a place in the video sphere if they are able to improve their ibis. Olympus has the best, and they are said to have made it even better. For me an ideal situation for a small mirrorless camera, one that is competitive,  is one that has ibis good enough to where u can chuck out your gimbal. Couple that with good video af and you have the perfect run and gun combo. I think this is where their market is. 

“Nikon could go all out in terms of video” - they haven’t up till now, no reason to expect any more than 8-bit 4:2:0 in the near future. 

“IBIS good enough to chuck your gimbal” - IBIS is not about to replace gimbals any time soon. Gimbals are now adding dozens of features and customizability in addition to mere stabilization.

“If they are able to improve their IBIS” - Micro four thirds already has excellent IBIS. Even if I could do somersaults and run up and down flights of stairs, CDAF isn’t going to cut it. Earth-shattering video AF-C would be a bonus. 

Not sure what any of this has to do with a discussion of FF mirrorless...

[Yurolov]

Goes to the broader discussion about what a full frame nikon camera means for the market, and what smaller sensors might need to compete. My thinking was that they might be best served for run and gun scenarios given the ibis and potential for upgraded af.

In run and gun circumstances, no one wants to carry around a gimbal if it is not necessary. The implications for documentary work would be immense given the compact and discreet nature of these cameras.  Which is why paired with a a decent autofocus system they would be an attractive proposition to many. 

Even more broadly, maybe some here would like to see what olympus has to offer before they decide to purchase a nikon. Just speculation prior to release.

[jonpais]

I'd also be willing to concede if, as I understand it, the D850 does indeed use CDAF in 4K, PDAF in their forthcoming mirrorless camera would certainly enhance its video capabilities.

[Danko]

8 hours ago, jonpais said:

And by the time the Nikon is rolled out in 2019, Sony will have yet again improved (borrowed from the Venice) color and ergonomics; they’ll have a slightly less convoluted menu system with a fully usable touch screen; will have added a half dozen more superb lenses to their already excellent lineup of FF lenses and who knows what else. 

And a G Master unicorn to pull the focus with its horn and swing the tail to help dissipate the heat. And a little pink bow tie ?

Sorry, I didn't mean to be rude or harsh. I like reading your posts.

But to repeat myself, the biggest thing Nikon is achieving now is putting out a new infrastructure. Something they can build different form factors and functions around, something to set a new ecosystem that even future DSLRs will be based around.

And people are lazy, especially photographers. They won't leave Sony equipment because Nikon puts IBIS and PDAF. Just like people didn't sell their current equipment because Sony is smaller and lighter. It's funny to read forums where every other post is a testimony of someone about to jump the ship or the system bought a couple of years earlier is dying so they are about to angrily replace it with something different and new... Let's just say that people won't let facts get in the way of a good story when they want to make a point. Colleagues who have 'jumped the ship' did it because they were offered equipment from distributors and brands. Sometimes we get cameras for testing and you do it because there's a deal between the agency and the brand, some money comes in. But it mostly stops there. You know what works good enough, what's familiar to handle, you take it and go work.

The current war of brands has been helped by the need of the media following the 'industry' to create something people will be worked up about. Half of the editorial decisions on DPReview are done with that in mind. About nine tenths of the youtube reviewers are doing that (when they should really work a bit more on their photography).

The fact is, trends go one way and another, while armchair 'strategizing' is just a fun thing to do in the meantime.

Again @jonapais - didn't mean to be rude, it was just that tone at end of your post that made me giggle and I had to award the fever of optimism.

[kye]

So in one corner we have the argument that companies without a cinema line could go all in and will make a non-crippled camera.  In the other corner we have the argument of trickle-down technology where those companies with a cinema line will have already recouped the R&D costs of really fancy tech and the low-end of their range will be a combination of high performance and lower cost.

Maybe we should just toss a coin to predict these things!

[Danko]

2 minutes ago, kye said:

Maybe we should just toss a coin to predict these things!

But then it's not fun!!!

[kye]

8 minutes ago, Danko said:

But then it's not fun!!!

LOL!

Yeah, I love the guessing too!

[Django]

Personally, i don't believe Nikon risks cannibalizing D850 sales by adding video features to their new MILC. We're talking a new year, new mount, new lenses, new mirrorless body type, new type of customer. No reason for them to hold back imo. The pro photogs i know that shoot D5/D850 aren't about to dump their gear to shoot their pricey lens collection with adapters, unproven weather sealing resistance, slower on sensor AF performance etc etc..

The high-end DSLR isn't going anywhere just yet in the pro sport/event photography scene, which is what Nikon caters to primarily.

Also pricing wise the D850 is roughly $3,200. The rumored price for the 45MP MILC model is $4K (including kit lens). So we're not talking "budget MilCs" and no Nikon won't be giving away stuff for "half the price of a d850".

All that being said, it is true however that Nikon have always been rather conservative when it comes to video features. Heck even the video I posted is advertising the D850 as a home video tool for the off-duty filmmaker!

The press release does give me hope as it does mention video, but i'm not expecting Blackmagic or even GH5 type advanced video specs..

It's going to be a long 2 week wait!