Nikon FF Mirrorless

[jonpais]

2 hours ago, Danko said:

And a G Master unicorn to pull the focus with its horn and swing the tail to help dissipate the heat. And a little pink bow tie ?

 

? My prediction of Sony churning out a half dozen new G Masters by the time Nikon releases their mirrorless was just a poke at one one of our contributors, who speculates that third party manufacturers could easily roll out as many as twenty Z mount lenses within the first year of its release alone.

But I’m liking the unicorn idea! ?

[Danyyyel]

10 hours ago, jonpais said:

Yeah, I realize it now.

I still insist though that were we to count the market share according to those using Canon, Nikon and Sony for videography alone, those pie charts would be turned on their head.

Does it have any relevance to the point you were making? Probably not. But from my perspective, it is impossible to say whether anyone entered the mirrorless market too early or too late just from looking at those pie charts.

People will buy shit like the 6D mkII no matter how weak it is, and Canon’s mirrorless offerings may fly off the shelves at the moment, but I’d never go near one.

Sales figures don’t mean anything to me.

If Andrew is correct, and I believe he is, Nikon’s not going to endanger sales of their DSLRs by giving away budget mirrorless cameras loaded with all kinds of features videographers want to see at half the price of a D850 (to compete with the a7 III). So @ntblowz may get his wish after all - decent AF and IBIS in a mirrorless body, but not much else new aside from the mount. 

And by the time the Nikon is rolled out in 2019, Sony will have yet again improved (borrowed from the Venice) color and ergonomics; they’ll have a slightly less convoluted menu system with a fully usable touch screen; will have added a half dozen more superb lenses to their already excellent lineup of FF lenses and who knows what else. 

I fact I think it will be complete opposite. Nikon will move much faster to replace its low end apsc line with Mirror less camers for two reasons. The first one is that most of people buying these D5300-D5600 even to the D7000 line of camera only buy it with a kit lens. These people won't be complaining that their 1990 prime lens doesn't meter or autofocus are not working on these cameras. Secondly it is cost and size. I mirror less camera doesn't need a mirror, prim and af module and all the moving mechanism, it adds only a small screen for the EVF. Also thay can go very small size and no one is going to complain that it is too small or not ergonomic etc.

 

My guess is that the D850 and D5 category will have at least one more iteration and a life span of another decade because these users are the one who will be more reluctant to move from the nikon f-mount because they might still want ovf and have multipe thousands in lens.

 

8 hours ago, kye said:

It won't be a direct competitor, no.  But for some people who are in between, it might be a toss up between two options that only partially provide what they want.  I know this won't be that many people though.

If Nikon doesn't offer at least 10 bit, I think the BMPC 4k will complement the Nikon mirrorless well because these type of work won't need AF and IBIS and super slowmotion.

[BTM_Pix]

10 hours ago, jonpais said:

The more I ponder it, the less likely I believe we are of seeing anything revolutionary at all.

Like virtually all cameras released these days, I believe it will generate pretty pictures and ugly arguments.

So, yes, absolutely not revolutionary.

[Danyyyel]

2 hours ago, Django said:

Personally, i don't believe Nikon risks cannibalizing D850 sales by adding video features to their new MILC. We're talking a new year, new mount, new lenses, new mirrorless body type, new type of customer. No reason for them to hold back imo. The pro photogs i know that shoot D5/D850 aren't about to dump their gear to shoot their pricey lens collection with adapters, unproven weather sealing resistance, slower on sensor AF performance etc etc..

The high-end DSLR isn't going anywhere just yet in the pro sport/event photography scene, which is what Nikon caters to primarily.

Also pricing wise the D850 is roughly $3,200. The rumored price for the 45MP MILC model is $4K (including kit lens). So we're not talking "budget MilCs" and no Nikon won't be giving away stuff for "half the price of a d850".

All that being said, it is true however that Nikon have always been rather conservative when it comes to video features. Heck even the video I posted is advertising the D850 as a home video tool for the off-duty filmmaker!

The press release does give me hope as it does mention video, but i'm not expecting Blackmagic or even GH5 type advanced video specs..

It's going to be a long 2 week wait!

 

From the rumors which have been very accurate, there are two camera released with a 45 ff at about 4k with the 24-70 f4 kit lens and Another one in the 24-25 megapixel at 3k with the kit lens. Considering Nikon pricing, that lens would easily cost about $ 800, so putting it at the same as the D850 and the 24 megapixel one near the 2k price of the A73. I think they are going to do a parrallel line and releasing the FF line and at this cost is clearly a statement that they are going for the pro/enthusiast high end market. I think at this stage they don't care about cannibalizing their DSLR line of camera becaue in the end, in the next 10 years they could get so much more money out of these users transitioning to the new mount. 

[jonpais]

An old stock Noct-Nikkor 58mm f/1.2 listed on ebay for $12,800 - for all I know, several times what they should sell for, though I’m no vintage lens expert. The Noct 58mm has quite an interesting story behind its development I guess.

[MurtlandPhoto]

12 hours ago, IronFilm said:

In fact they might even prefer a buyer gets their "mirrorless D850" as that will help lock the buyer into the future Nikon ecosystem, while someone who stays with their DSLRs still has a risk that when s/he makes the leap to mirrorless from their D850 that they might not get a Nikon mirrorless but instead will leak to some other competing system.  

This! It is in Nikon's best interest to cannibalize their own sales now to ensure the maximum amount of Nikon shooters remain loyal to the brand for years to come. There's no telling what the next generations of Sony or even Canon cameras could bring.

[IronFilm]

2 hours ago, jonpais said:

? My prediction of Sony churning out a half dozen new G Masters by the time Nikon releases their mirrorless was just a poke at one one of our contributors, who speculates that third party manufacturers could easily roll out as many as twenty Z mount lenses within the first year of its release alone.

I am a little skeptical as to if we'll see twenty fully AF/AE lenses for Z mount from third parties in the first year, but I have no doubt that overall in total for all third party lenses we will see 20 plus lenses for the new Z mount within a year from Nikon's new mirrorless camera shipping. For sure. 

57 minutes ago, jonpais said:

An old stock Noct-Nikkor 58mm f/1.2 listed on ebay for $12,800 - for all I know, several times what they should sell for, though I’m no vintage lens expert. The Noct 58mm has quite an interesting story behind its development I guess.

Which shows the level of strength among Nikon users for a f1.2 lens, or even a f0.95 lens?!

[mercer]

12 hours ago, jonpais said:

The more I ponder it, the less likely I believe we are of seeing anything revolutionary at all.

It’s simply revolutionary because it will exist. Like it or not, Nikon and Canon are the professional photographer’s cameras of choice due to their lenses.

Once both Nikon and Canon get into the FF mirrorless business, Sony will no longer be the only FF mirrorless game in town. This is why it is imperative that Nikon gets their adapter so perfect that it literally is an extension of the camera... mount it once and forget it’s even there. Hopefully their new lens line up is great but if they do not make backwards compatibility seamless, it will be the biggest mistake in camera history.

I’m not anything near a professional but I loved my Nikon D5500. If I didn’t start shooting Raw video, I would have happily continued using that camera. And while I owned the D5500, I started collecting some Nikkor ai-s lenses and I really appreciated being able to natively mount these manual focus gems onto a modern digital camera. I don’t have a lot, so it isn’t the end of the world, but I must say that the thought of having to adapt a Nikon lens onto a Nikon camera, feels a little backwards to me. So for potential customers like me that have no brand loyalty between Canon or Nikon, lens usability is the number one criteria.

After lens compatibility, then I will move to other features... ibis, focus peaking, exposure aids, lcd screen, etc...

[jonpais]

23 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

I am a little skeptical as to if we'll see twenty fully AF/AE lenses for Z mount from third parties in the first year, but I have no doubt that overall in total for all third party lenses we will see 20 plus lenses for the new Z mount within a year from Nikon's new mirrorless camera shipping. For sure. 

Which shows the level of strength among Nikon users for a f1.2 lens, or even a f0.95 lens?!

I read and re-read your first statement a few times and maybe it’s the Xanax kicking in, but I don’t understand what you’re saying.

Are you saying there will be a total of 20 mf and af lenses? If so, the distinction is lost on me. If for example, Voigtlander makes an e-mount 65mm APO, it’s an e mount lens, plain and simple.

Regarding conclusion #2, it is no more than a case of someone hording and stockpiling and being greedy. 

[IronFilm]

9 minutes ago, jonpais said:

read and re-read your first statement a few times and maybe it’s the Xanax kicking in, but I don’t understand what you’re saying.

 Are you saying there will be a total of 20 mf and af lenses? If so, the distinction is lost on me. If for example, Voigtlander makes an e-mount 65mm APO, it’s an e mount lens, plain and simple.

Yes, I expect we'll see 20+ Z mount lenses from Third Parties within a year. Easily, for sure!

For instance just Samyang/Rokinon will make all their lenses they make for MFT/E mount already in Z mount, and it will happen very very quickly, within months, maybe even weeks of Z mount launching. 

Very small companies like Veydra might take a bit longer, but probably still within a year. Other more mid size third party companies like SLR Magic will probably take some length or time between those two extremes to roll out their Z mount updates, but I'm sure we'll see some of them within the year. 

These are just a few of many companies out there which have an existing library of lenses for Mirrorless cameras (or even F mount already) that they will surely in a timely manner convert to offering in Z mount 

This isn't even counting any which might be made to specifically take advantage of specific features of the Z mount (such as their ability to offer faster lenses than normal?).

 

9 minutes ago, jonpais said:

Regarding conclusion #2, it is no more than a case of someone hording and stockpiling and being greedy. 

It is due to high demand (but low supply). 
Which was my point. 

 

[jonpais]

@mercer I can go along with counter-revolutionary. ?

[Marcio Kabke Pinheiro]

Since we are in prediction land, my two cents:

- The more expensive one will be exactly a D850 mirrorless, with on-sensor PDAF, IBIS and maybe some more video helps (zebras, peaking, etc), but same video quality / specs. Will not exactly canibalize the D850 because of a higher price tag, better performance with F-mount lens and photographers that prefer OFV's.
- The cheaper one will be a A7 III contender, specs by spec.

And probably this will be enough for a lot of people. Their first priority is keeping the current Nikon users on board, still photogs first. Stills photographers still buys much more units than the video crowd. Don't expect 10-bit or 60 fps 4k in this first iteration, maybe 10-bit in HDMI out. They will start with the land that they know.

At the same time, don't think that they will restrain themselves to not canibalize DSLR - jut will try to keep the prices reasonable at the start to get traction (A7 III put a lot of pressure in prices). For me the clearly see the Z mount as their future - that HUGE size, for me, is to have the possibility to go to medium format at the future with the same mount (and use FF lenses with crop), not to make a better IBIS.

[ND64]

20 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

Yes, I expect we'll see 20+ Z mount lenses from Third Parties within a year. Easily, for sure!


9 of them wil be Sigma Art. IF they can reverse engineer the Z. 

[Nikkor]

IMHO, the adapter thing will be nice if you have lot 's of long lenses, but for anything under 80mm people will go for z mount lenses and dump their old stuff on ebay, great news for poor photographers

[jonpais]

Hugh Brownstone weighs in 

 

[Trek of Joy]

17 hours ago, jonpais said:

Yeah, I realize it now.

I still insist though that were we to count the market share according to those using Canon, Nikon and Sony for videography alone, those pie charts would be turned on their head.

Sony would certainly leapfrog Nikon, but Canon? Maybe, maybe not. Canon has everything from Cinema cameras, to top end broadcast cameras (they were the camera of the Olympics) to cheap consumer camcorders - just like Sony. 

Chris

6 hours ago, BTM_Pix said:

Like virtually all cameras released these days, I believe it will generate pretty pictures and ugly arguments.

So, yes, absolutely not revolutionary.

That's true of all new cameras. Forums would exist if that wasn't the case.

[webrunner5]

4 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Yes, I expect we'll see 20+ Z mount lenses from Third Parties within a year. Easily, for sure!

For instance just Samyang/Rokinon will make all their lenses they make for MFT/E mount already in Z mount, and it will happen very very quickly, within months, maybe even weeks of Z mount launching. 

Very small companies like Veydra might take a bit longer, but probably still within a year. Other more mid size third party companies like SLR Magic will probably take some length or time between those two extremes to roll out their Z mount updates, but I'm sure we'll see some of them within the year. 

These are just a few of many companies out there which have an existing library of lenses for Mirrorless cameras (or even F mount already) that they will surely in a timely manner convert to offering in Z mount 

This isn't even counting any which might be made to specifically take advantage of specific features of the Z mount (such as their ability to offer faster lenses than normal?).

 

It is due to high demand (but low supply). 
Which was my point. 

 

I am not too sure these "other" company's can just throw on a different Z mount on existing lenses they have. With as big as this mouth opening is on it I am not sure they can use the same lens formulas? People may be just stuck having to buy the original Nikon F mount and go that way for awhile with an adapter??

[noone]

The 58 1.2 Noct Nikkor was pretty expensive when released as it is a lens designed to be USED wide open and uses hand ground aspherical elements and less than 12,000 were made I think.       Being very good and fast, it has a cult following  and many collectors want them as well.       I almost got one a few years ago but got some other photo toys instead at the time (can not afford any now).      Nikon makes other 1.2 lenses like the 50mm 1.2 but that is not really different to many other non aspherical 1.2 lenses.

You can also get other 1.2 lenses for Nikon from third parties like the Mitakon 85 1.2.     Do they make a Mitakon 50 f0.95 for Nikon?

It makes sense to me if the first camera is aimed at the Nikon D850 and that camera is the one we will see soon but the second 24/25mp one might be later and that might be more aimed at Sony but which one?        Given the lead in times, I still think it may have been designed as a A7ii killer or competitor at least but then along came the A7iii.      Maybe the second one is still in development?

I think most who would have migrated to Sony from Canikon have and these might be more for the faithful as well as new buyers and I am sure there will be some that left for Sony but are naturally Nikon customers.        I think there are a few here who use Sony by default but can't wait to dump it (it is funny to see Sony haters post for years in various forums and then suddenly be shooting with Sony cameras - even if still whinging and sometimes then quickly dropping them and going back).

 

I  predict the first camera will be good but I will still prefer the ergonomics of the first gen Sony's, it will have a better EVF (I am fine with the Sony one), that the adapter will be great for some lenses not so much others (maybe two adapters?), the kit lens for this camera will be the best FF kit lens yet.

[mercer]

Idk, I tend to think that both Nikon and Canon only look at each other as competitors.

Sony’s market share could dilute quickly once this Nikon is released and even quicker when the Canon is released. A lot of the shooters that “jumped ship” will take their EF lenses and Nikkor lenses back to their native homes... unless Nikon and Canon only attempt a bunt with their first foray into FF mirrorless.

The fact that they’re both getting into the market around the same time may force their hands into offering the kitchen sink for fears that the other may do the same.

Time will tell but in the meantime, it will be a fun guessing game.

[DBounce]

14 minutes ago, mercer said:

Idk, I tend to think that both Nikon and Canon only look at each other as competitors.

Sony’s market share could dilute quickly once this Nikon is released and even quicker when the Canon is released. A lot of the shooters that “jumped ship” will take their EF lenses and Nikkor lenses back to their native homes... unless Nikon and Canon only attempt a bunt with their first foray into FF mirrorless.

The fact that they’re both getting into the market around the same time may force their hands into offering the kitchen sink for fears that the other may do the same.

Time will tell but in the meantime, it will be a fun guessing game.

Agreed, Sony needs to outdo itself to remain relevant against Canon and Nikon. This is starting to get interesting.?