4 way battle - rating the chances of Panasonic vs Canon vs Nikon vs Sony full frame mirrorless systems

[etidona]

Interesting analysis as usual Andrew.
This move by Panasonic can be interpreted as brave or desperate. 

It may be the case Panasonic is scared by the increased competition in the mirrorless arena and wants to rush out something fullframe before it's too late. If the technology inside the FF Pana will be a simple updated version of the LeicaSL it will be a failure. 

Phase detection AF, IBIS, articulated screen, internal 10 bit 4k full sensor readout, unlimited recording time, less than 3k € price.
If Panasonic manage to put those things together thy can win hands down. 

Unfortunately i don't know if it's possible with the 2018/2019 technology.

Personally I invested in the m43 system and I'm hoping for a dual native ISO 20mpixel stabilized m43 sensor. 

 

[Trek of Joy]

2 hours ago, MdB said:

Canon on the other hand have made all four lenses really indispensable and a huge part of buying into the new format. For Canon that in itself is a much more useful thing to do. 

3 vs 4 lenses really isn't a wide gap, especially when 2 are going to be incredibly expensive. The 28-70 will likely be $2500+ and the 50/1.2 will probably be close to $2k. We'll see if they announce a roadmap. Nikon has the zoom trinity coming by the end of next year. Its not about where they are now, its where they will be in 2-3 years once the system is more rounded and gen-2 bodies come out. Canon has a long way to just catch Nikon, much less Sony. The first R is incredibly underwhelming, even for Canon apologists.

[Castorp]

Nikon Z looks like the most solid. They have the lenses most people need in the beginning (which isn’t fast exotic and expensive bragging glass). They got the fast zooms and two extremely fast 50’s down the line. 

[Cliff Totten]

On the Sony side, in order to complete with Panasonic and Nikon witu 10bit, Sony is going to be forced to allow its Alpha models to canabolize their XDCAM models much more in the future. 10bit 4k was always the carefully protected of its prized and highly sucessfull FS7. With Nikon, Blackmagic and Panasonic (probably) doing 10bit, Sony is going to have to gritt their teeth, clich their fists and move 10bit into lower priced camwras now. If anybody thinks this wont affect professional model camera sales, I think they are wrong.

[newfoundmass]

6 hours ago, wolf33d said:

Your last sentance is  wrong: won’t be enough for all videographers if it is a GH5 FF. The Video AF is extremely important. Should they stay with their old shitty video AF, then forget them.

Also even though not FF, the new XT3 with 4K60p 10 bit will compete with those cameras in video. 

I'm curious, what kind of work do you do that you refuse to use a camera that doesn't have "good" auto focus?

I'm not even using the argument that "real pros use manual focus" either, because that's silly too, but to put such weight behind auto focus is so weird to me. It does need to be improved, without a doubt, but to completely discount a camera because it's AF is not as good as Sony or Canon is wild. For me IQ is the most important, especially given how much vintage glass I use. I've even been fine with using the GH5 for multicam sporting events.

I don't mean to pick on you or single you out, I just see you constantly talking about AF, is all. 

[Mokara]

10 hours ago, MdB said:

Until Sony made sensors available that could downsample on the fly for third parties, everyone cropped to get 4K. Nikon, Panasonic, Sony, Leica and Canon. 

I see only Canon get flogged for it though. It was fine when the GH4 cropped, fine that that X-T2 and X-H1 crop. Fine that the SL crops... 

Yes Canon don’t buy their sensors from Sony. Thank you Sony for giving most other brands cutting edge tech. 

Cropping is due to limitations of the processor, not the sensor.

In any case, Samsung did it before Sony IIRC.

10 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

The problem I have with Panasonic going full frame is that I think Panasonic's very success in video is down to the competitive advantage they enjoy by using a 'smaller sensor'. The M43 sensor size brings a lot of advantages to video - better ibis, faster frame rates, more bit depth, higher bit rates and lower cost - than can be achieved with a bigger sensor. And of course they enjoy the widest and most mature, native lens lineup of any mirrorless system.

I just dont see what they bring to the table in FF mirrorless especially against 3 'big players'. They may have lots of experience but that still hasnt prevented them from having woefully uncompetitive video autofocus (even with a small sensor.) I think Panasonic has been taking a lot of missteps recently - not capitalizing on their competitive advantage (by removing ibis from the GH5s) (or handing the update for the LX100 to the teaboy to do over lunch) and not resolving their weaknesses (as in sorting out their video autofocus). I suspect this will be another stumble....

They may prove me wrong - a full frame LX100 with a Leica fast zoom - now that would be innovative and different....

Sensor size has nothing to do with frame rates, bit depth or bit rates. The only things that affect those parameters are pixel numbers and processing power.

[MdB]

1 hour ago, Mokara said:

Cropping is due to limitations of the processor, not the sensor.

 

Not so. The various output feeds from the sensor for different modes are based on the sensor’s abilities also. There are plenty of sensors that can only read out the whole pixel range at sufficient depth for a subsection (crop) of the sensor. The Z7 and A7R III aren’t reading out full pixel data at 30+ FPS of their 8K+ sensors and then that is pixel binned by the processor. That occurs on a sensor level or the whole thing would explode. 

1 hour ago, Mokara said:

any case, Samsung did it before Sony IIRC

This is relevant how? Nobody is getting their sensors from Samsung... so...?

1 hour ago, Mokara said:

Sensor size has nothing to do with frame rates, bit depth or bit rates. The only things that affect those parameters are pixel numbers and processing power.

In terms of processing those signals, no, you’re right. However smaller sensors tend to have higher speed read outs at greater depth than larger sensors (but those eventually catch up). Very early 4K camcorders with 1/2.3” sensors had 4K60 long before bigger sensor mainstream products (like GH5 and 1DX II). 

[wolf33d]

2 hours ago, newfoundmass said:

I'm curious, what kind of work do you do that you refuse to use a camera that doesn't have "good" auto focus?

I'm not even using the argument that "real pros use manual focus" either, because that's silly too, but to put such weight behind auto focus is so weird to me. It does need to be improved, without a doubt, but to completely discount a camera because it's AF is not as good as Sony or Canon is wild. For me IQ is the most important, especially given how much vintage glass I use. I've even been fine with using the GH5 for multicam sporting events.

I don't mean to pick on you or single you out, I just see you constantly talking about AF, is all. 

Good question. As of now I am mostly filming extreme sports and mountain activities (multi day trekking / climbing, paragliding, ...) 
I am always in action and challenging environment with very poor screen visibility and fast moving people as subject. Video AF if right (like Canon DPAF) is crucial for me in those situations. 

Now if it is a sport event where you can afford the weight of a nice external screen and so on, I guess you can do a good job at manual focusing. 

My case is not specific and I see many people either in the same situation either in completely different scenarios. 
Also, I think a good chunk of camera buyers are basic amateur that want great quality and focus done by itself without having to do anything. Video AF is important for those people too. 
Vloggers is another group... 

EDIT: and you are right, other things such as IQ are super important. If the GH5 was the only option I would use it. But A7III has good enough IQ for me for example, yet the FF and better AF make a greater difference for me. 
 

 

[TheDingo]

10 hours ago, wolf33d said:

Also even though not FF, the new XT3 with 4K60p 10 bit will compete with those cameras in video. 

How long will the XT3 be able to shoot 4K video ?

I shoot lots of live events where I need 90-120 minute recording.

And does it record 10-bit internal like the GH5 or externally like the new Z-mount Nikons ?

I like to keep things simple and compact, so internal recording is always my preference.

10 hours ago, etidona said:

This move by Panasonic can be interpreted as brave or desperate.

...Or logical. They've pretty much gone as far as they can go with the m4/3 format, so it's time to expand into the FF market. There are many people that will never shoot with a m4/3 camera no matter how good it is, so bringing a  lot of the GH5 tech to a FF camera is a very smart move. Panasonic can be the master of video on both m4/3 and FF formats.

I also hope they implement the G9 high-resolution multi-frame imaging in the FF camera, so a FF camera with a 35 Mpx sensor could create a single 140 Mpx high resolution image in camera. ( Panasonic is using IBIS sub-pixel positioning of the sensor to create this image, so Canon is out if it has no IBIS tech )

[gethin]

All the spec speculation on the Panasonic will be moot if the sensor gives a nice image.  I would swap ibis for 14 stops and organic highlight rolloff. Who knows? But by the time it's out there is a very high chance that I'll have a zed, and starting to invest in that system. 

By the way I believe nigh-con are only insisting on zee in North America, whereas nih-con else are fine with zed.  Whatever they say there is no chance in hell I'll be calling it a zee.  

[AlexTrinder96]

Nokishita on the X-T3...

 

'4K / 60P 4: 2: 0 Compatible with 10-bit SD card recording in the camera. 4K / 60P 4: 2: 2 Also supports 10bit HDMI output.'

 

 

[Jimmy]

We all know the outcome.... Each camera will have pros and cons... None will check every box. Some people will buy whichever checks the most of their particular boxes. Some will stick with what they have and hope that the next release is the one to tempt them to spend. Rinse and repeat ad infinitum. 

 

[IronFilm]

21 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

I just dont see what they bring to the table in FF mirrorless especially against 3 'big players'. They may have lots of experience but that still hasnt prevented them from having woefully uncompetitive video autofocus (even with a small sensor.) I think Panasonic has been taking a lot of missteps recently - not capitalizing on their competitive advantage (by removing ibis from the GH5s) (or handing the update for the LX100 to the teaboy to do over lunch) and not resolving their weaknesses (as in sorting out their video autofocus). I suspect this will be another stumble....

 

You can add to that list:

Failing to leverage the success of their MFT, and large base of GH buyers who are looking to move on up, by screwing up the Panasonic EVA1 launch by only offering it with a competitor's mount. 

20 hours ago, EthanAlexander said:

The biggest difference is that the 1.74x crop is on a FF sensor that doesn't allow EF-S lenses (at least not native Canon) so that's a substantial difference that is extremely hard to combat. 

Exactly. At least Nikon allows DX lenses on their FX cameras. 

Additionally I'd care a LOT LESS about a crop if it is on a mirrorless mount (than if it is on a DSLR mount). 

 

[IronFilm]

19 hours ago, MdB said:

Again a kind of ridiculous comment. "what if they could only take one photo before they explode?!"

That kinda used to the be filming scenario with how easily Canon DSLRs and Sony mirrorless used to heat up....

Anyway, I got Andrew's analogy easily enough. He was pointing that Canon video shooters are meant to put up with something the still's shooters of Canon never would put up with for even one photo!

[Jimmy]

3 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

He was pointing that Canon video shooters are meant to put up with something the still's shooters of Canon never would put up with for even one photo!

Unless they buy the dedicated video camera!

If the C200 had some weird crop still image mode, the still guys wouldn't sit crying about it, they'd just buy the stills camera. 

[IronFilm]

13 hours ago, Cliff Totten said:

On the Sony side, in order to complete with Panasonic and Nikon witu 10bit, Sony is going to be forced to allow its Alpha models to canabolize their XDCAM models much more in the future. 10bit 4k was always the carefully protected of its prized and highly sucessfull FS7. With Nikon, Blackmagic and Panasonic (probably) doing 10bit, Sony is going to have to gritt their teeth, clich their fists and move 10bit into lower priced camwras now. If anybody thinks this wont affect professional model camera sales, I think they are wrong.

Sony will also have to offer a lot more for their FS7mk3 (can't be any small upgrade like the FS5mk2 was!).

[Django]

Yeah it's not like cinema cameras aren't just sitting still, as MILCS start catching up, they surely will jumpleap to 8K, internal Raw, etc. Also FS7 has got a lot more going on than 10-bit 4K. It records proper DCI 4K in ALL-I codec at bitrates up to 600mbps. You can get raw output, internal ProRes etc with expansions. That's without even counting ergonomics, battery life, XLR, DCI, NDs etc.. it's still a very popular camera option and top moving unit at rental houses.

[Marcio Kabke Pinheiro]

Until now, from the new bunch, liked the Z6 most. Looked more cohesive, good specs overall, IBIS, af joystick, video looks good, af looks good - all subjected to change in real world. Will be a very interesting comparison with the A7III.

EOS R looks to have some interesting features in the controls layout - but waste a left dial to a on-off switch is a very strange choice. But huge crop and no IBIS was a bummer for video. Looks a good stills camera. It's a Canon, will sell very well.

Have to wait for the Panasonic. A FF GH5 would be a winner, but I expect to have a higher price to not destroy the m43 line (at least now). Mount is a mistery - don't believe in a EF mount.

[Danyyyel]

21 hours ago, MdB said:

Same can be said about the complaints pegged at Canon. 

They needed to so they didn’t shut down the whole division. 

Zeees are just a mirrorless body for F mount users. Same as the R. Nobody expected anything more surely? That’s all the fanboys needed. The compelling thing for RF other than the EVF is the lenses, makes one want to actually buy some new lenses, not just adapt them. Nikon Zeee bodies have arguably better specs, but there is nothing enticing about their mediocre lens lineup. Canon on the other hand have made all four lenses really indispensable and a huge part of buying into the new format. For Canon that in itself is a much more useful thing to do. 

What is mediocre about 80 lens line up + 100 more third party and if you want you can adapt almost any other lens brand because it has the smallest flange. Before talking such nonsence people should take 5 second and inform themselves so as not to look like a fool.

And tell me what should have the fanboys have wanted that much more than great body and sealing, great/best evf, FF DX 4k, 120 fps fhd, IBIS, great video AF and 10 bit/nlong with my Ninja flame. All of that for $ 2000? Tell me another camera that does that much for this price nowwwwwwwwwwwww, and not some mythical camera that will come in the future and at this price. Because lets be clear the A73 just came out 6 month ago and I don't think it will be upgraded to A74 for at least a year.

[MdB]

1 hour ago, Danyyyel said:

What is mediocre about 80 lens line up + 100 more third party

Three native lenses champ. A slow zoom and two expensive f/1.8 primes. Astonishing. Talking adapted? What a joke. Get a clue. 

1 hour ago, Danyyyel said:

want you can adapt almost any other lens brand because it has the smallest flange.

Bahahaha yeah except Nikon are locking down the mount and protocols. 

1 hour ago, Danyyyel said:

efore talking such nonsence people should take 5 second and inform themselves so as not to look like a fool.

Got a bit more of a clue then some mindless fanboy spouting his mouth off. 

1 hour ago, Danyyyel said:

And tell me what should have the fanboys have wanted that much more than great body and sealing, great/best evf, FF DX 4k, 120 fps fhd, IBIS, great video AF and 10 bit/nlong with my Ninja flame. All of that for $ 2000? Tell me another camera that does that much for this price nowwwwwwwwwwwww, and not some mythical camera that will come in the future and at this price. Because lets be clear the A73 just came out 6 month ago and I don't think it will be upgraded to A74 for at least a year.

Great and still only useful for F mount fanboys... which is what I said to begin with. Not going to build up a base of F mount lenses just to mount on a camera that is flavour of the month with some small ‘spec’ advantage. The ‘system’ has ZERO enticing about it (again unless you’re already a die-hard Nikon fanboy, in which case it will be the ‘best’ anyway). 

As for all that for $2k. I wouldn’t care if it was $500 I still have no use for it. If you gave me one for free I’d sell it to fund something useful. 

I’m pretty sure there has never been a more pointless turd of a camera...