Likelihood Sony Will Give Us A New Codec Any Time Soon?

[Mark Romero 2]

I know I am asking you to look into your crystal ball / shake up your Magic 8 Ball, but I gotta ask:

What are the odds we will see a new and (hopefully) improved codec with the upcoming release of the a7S III and the APS-C sensor a6700 / a7000 ???

Sony seems pretty set with their 8-Bit XAVC S 100Mbs Interframe codec, from what I can tell.

And I am all but set on selling my a6500 and moving to an X-T3 (especially with HLG coming to the X-T3 in a promised firmware update later this year).

It seems like Sony probably "have to" update their codec if they want to keep up with Panasonic / Fuji.

Just not sure if they will.

[wolf33d]

Very likely. The reason:

4K60P. With the XT3 and upcoming S1, Sony has 0 reason not to give 4K60p for the next APSC and A7SIII. 
If 4K60P comes (which is very likely see above) then they will need a new codec. I do not see them having 100mbps for that. 
I am expecting either h.265 to come in or higher bitrates. 10 bit would be nice too.

On top of that, as you said, the h.265 and 10 bit was not a thing last year. This year it appeared massively (DJI drones, Panasonic, Fuji,...) and even for Canon and Nikon (10 bit external) which speaks for itself. Sony likes to lead specs. 
For sure they did not expect all that thus the delay for A7SIII now they have to keep up with those specs or GO HOME.

[sanveer]

XAVC has a lot of flavours they would probably just push it to the next upgrade. Dynamic Range may be similar, but the bitrate could go up and codec could handle grading and post better. 

[IronFilm]

5 hours ago, sanveer said:

XAVC has a lot of flavours they would probably just push it to the next upgrade.

Yes, if we're lucky then they're likely to just push down one of those codecs from the FS5/FS7 into a mirrorless camera, rather than invent a whole new codec to implement. 

[sanveer]

47 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

Yes, if we're lucky then they're likely to just push down one of those codecs from the FS5/FS7 into a mirrorless camera, rather than invent a whole new codec to implement. 

Wow. That would be quite an upgrade, especially with the benefits of the FF sensor. I don't know why but I think they might do a price correction, IF they don't make it absolutely path leading in the video department (and push it to 18MP stills or above). 

[IronFilm]

Am not saying I think Sony will do that, just it seems more likely to me than them inventing another new codec. 

 

[webrunner5]

Some of this crazy stuff is not going to ever happen just because of the current Media costs. 99% of people have and do use SD cards. Mainly because you can go down the street and buy one. And they are cheap now. You are not going to talk the average person into using SSD's or CFast cards in their cameras to keep up with crazy data rates.

Until there is some Amazing SD card breakthrough we are stuck with what we got like it or not. Even we can't afford super GB CFast cards. The PK4 is proof of that. So no I don''t see Sony using a Codec from a F55 in a Mirrorless.

[IronFilm]

36 minutes ago, webrunner5 said:

Until there is some Amazing SD card breakthrough we are stuck with what we got like it or not.

There are some very fast SD cards now. 
Look at the GH5 which can do 10bit 4K with ease, and they're not even taking full advantage of the latest SD cards.

37 minutes ago, webrunner5 said:

So no I don''t see Sony using a Codec from a F55 in a Mirrorless.

I said FS5/FS7, not F55

[webrunner5]

19 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

There are some very fast SD cards now. 
Look at the GH5 which can do 10bit 4K with ease, and they're not even taking full advantage of the latest SD cards.

I said FS5/FS7, not F55

GH5 is not using some crazy high data rate codec either. It is along the lines of ProRes LT. And all the high end Sony's from the FS5 to the F55 use some version of XAVC Codec. Heck even the A7's use it. Different wrapper but. Even the new Sony Venice uses XAVC. At least they are consistent LoL.

[Mako Sports]

Seems unlikely for a brand new codec as that work and R&D was done years ago. Maybe something like XAVC IL (intraframe light) This new camera would require UHS 2 cards as UHS U3 cards top out at like 150mbps. 

I really don't want to deal with a bitrate above 300, overkill on cams like these at the moment and just takes up an ubsurd amount of space.

If you want 600mbps buy an FS7 or used F5..

 

(Note - this chart is pre Venice)

[IronFilm]

Yes, the most hopeful we can dream of is that Sony gives us XAVC-L 10bit 422 4K 30fps in the a7s mk3 or new Pro APS-C E mount camera. That would even beat the FS5! What would be less surprising is if they simply matched the FS5 and gave XAVC-L 8bit 420 4K 30fps and XAVC-L 10bit 422 1080 60fps in an E mount stills camera. 

BTW, XAVC-L 10bit 422 1080 60fps on the FS5 maxes out as 50 MB/s

Thus I'd assume the XAVC-L 10bit 422 4K 30fps maxes out 100 MB/s (because roughly 4x for the 4K, then roughly halve it for the 30fps vs 60fps. Just as a quick guesstimate seat of my pants assumption on the spot). 

These SD cards are somewhat pricey, but still quite "cheap", as they're almost the same price I paid for my slower Extreme Pro cards back when I first purchased my BMPCC:

https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1275619-REG/sandisk_sdsdxpk_064g_ancin_extreme_pro_uhs_ii_64gb.html

Their rating: 
Max. Write Speed: 260 MB/s

Yeah, I'm sure the SD cards in an a7Smk3 / a7000 could handle  XAVC-L 10bit 422 4K 30fps just fine! (if Sony wants to support it. A big if!)

[Robin]

I think if they released it 6 months ago it would have been 4k 30p at 100mbs but now they have waited and the competition has changed we will see 4k 60p and higher bit rates and 10 bit on the hdmi at the very least. Probably this coming spring time 

Of course they finally need a full new processor for the new features.... Kind of like going straight to an a7s4 

[Geoff CB]

Only upgrades I'm expecting from the next Sony mirrorless aside from the A7III body is 10-bit and venice color science.