Canon predicting a 50% decline in sales units in the next 2 years

[JurijTurnsek]

You can find the article on other popular photo sites ... basically Canon is saying that they will put more emphasis on R&D for industrial markets, not so much for consumers.

Seems like a drastic prediction, but it seems like a logical consequence of evolutionary updates to already very capable hardware. Mobile phone content consumption is even lowering the bar to what is needed to produce "PRO-looking" footage - why bother upgrading you gear anyway?

Of course, this can be seen as a welcome change of pace, no more GAS, just content creation.

[kaylee]

i saw those headlines

uh, i think its a drastic, loopy number, but in spirit theres truth to it...

50% in two years tho? what in the actual f-word is going to change between now and 2021 thats going to cause a 50% drop in dslr/mirrorless sales??

edit: DONT say trump term 2

[BTM_Pix]

A second term for Trump is more likely to increase sales of the other type of Cannon...

Its interesting though that if Canon really do think the end is nigh for 'real' cameras whether they might actually take the opportunity to make some hay while the sun is still shining and drop the slow drip shenanigans, unleash what everyone knows their cameras are capable of and make sure that they get a bigger share of what's left.

It could happen, couldn't it ?

Canon ?

What do you say Canon?

 

 

[webrunner5]

I think to be honest Canon has realized that their sensor, possessor tech is too far behind, and by the time they invest in new manufacturing equipment and plants it would be a waste of time even if they have the engineering to do it. Once you get so far behind you really can't catch up. And there is not going to be a market down the road for big cameras anyways for anyone.

I think Magic Lateran has proved that Canon really was not holding back on much. They really could not have made a camera that did 4K reliably for hours on end without a crop of some kind and not have a gimped live view to boot. You can't sell a camera to the average person that is unreliable.They have lacked the horsepower to really make it happen, at least on the consumer end. Sure they have protected their C line, but even Sony, Panasonic have done that. None are not going to give you a 10,000 dollar camera for 1800 bucks.

[thebrothersthre3]

This is what I've been saying. If they wanted to cut costs it seems like they could just start buying Sony tech like everyone else. I think this camera craze might be a flash in the pan. Cell phones will take over other then for professional use.

[BTM_Pix]

1 hour ago, webrunner5 said:

I think Magic Lateran has proved that Canon really was not holding back on much. They really could not have made a camera that did 4K reliably for hours on end without a crop of some kind and not have a gimped live view to boot. You can't sell a camera to the average person that is unreliable.

I dunno.

The ML stuff even on the EOS-M is running on hardware that is at least 7 years old now and Canon have made more than a few steps in that time with sensors and processors as well as advances in storage media etc.

ML are having to work with/around what Canon did at that time so I would hazard a strong guess that the whole thing would be more robust if built from the ground up by Canon. ML have essentially been unpicking locks that Canon had put there based on keeping stability inside a performance envelope that is in many cases a decade old now.

Having said that, would your average punter be interested in the EOS-R doing internal RAW anyway?

[webrunner5]

Yeah but Canon has Never made a 4K FF sensor without a crop. That is pretty crazy when you think about it in this day and age. And I would imagine people might want Raw in the higher end models you know they are going to come out with. Can they do it in FF. I sort of doubt it.

And I just can't imagine Canon going to a Sony sensor in their top end stuff. It would just be a total admission they are not capable of making it happen on their own. I just don't see it happening.

[OliKMIA]

This is such a defeatist approach. Instead of looking at the market with a passive attitude and maintain profitability by recycling old tech as much as possible, they could create new trends. There is a huge market ready to be tapped for Vloggers and instagramers. These guys just need something practical and easy to use, that connects to their smartphones without roaming through menus for 10 minutes.
Yes Canon is behind in some areas most people don't need 16 stops of DR and 8k. Imagine a Canon Osmo with Canon colors and DPAF. Or some type of M50 with decent battery, 4k, and full smartphone App implementation to pair it with Instagram...

No, Canon just extrapolates CIPA figures to forecast the number of 5Dmk4/T7i variants they can sell in this market... So yeah, it's not going to be pretty.

[jgharding]

Call me cynical, but i'd put it down to just refusing to catch up with everyone else in terms of spec vs price.

Canon still have good skin-tone, but the last camera we bought was GH5. No point getting another C200 really. Shoots amazing Vlog footage, tiny and light, easy to travel with...

They were leaning on your average Joe knowing the brand, but now that market is being eaten by Sony and Panasonic.

Sad times, cos they have all the know-how to rule the sector, but instead they committed seppuku

[Robert Collins]

I am surprised how negative Canon is on  the market.

Of course smartphones are catching up but isnt that already reflected in sales. Smartphones sold 1.6bn units last year that is over 100x the 11m ILC sales. Some of the market data seems almost optimistic about future sales.

https://***URL removed***/news/7183637894/new-study-reveals-insights-of-first-time-interchangeable-lens-camera-owners

72% of future buyers of ILCs dont already own one.

33% of smartphone users considering buying a mirrorless.

[kaylee]

i used to work at an apple store and easily 60% of the employees there had dslrs/mirrorless cameras

NONE of them actually made jack shit with these cameras

not ONE (besides me lol). and im talking easily 200 people i met during those 3 years 

so im just sayin. i cant imagine these people, who are already spending thousands of dollars on shit they dont need or use, to stop doing that by 50% in the next two years. maybe im wrong ?

[thebrothersthre3]

The article says their sales having been steadily dropping by 10% every year for the past few years. I  think the question is it the same for other companies? or could it be Sony and other manufacturers are picking up the slack. 

[kaylee]

theres truth to that for sure 

[webrunner5]

Well there has to be some room to grow or Panasonic with Leica, and even throw in Sigma with them would have Never thought about trying to go a FF Panny camera. This to me is pretty crazy. I think it is going to be a FF E-M1X Flop. What the hell is Panasonic going to bring to photo that Canon, Nikon doesn't have already? In reality a mirrorless camera sucks ass for long lens usage. And I would venture to guess to most Pros Telephoto lenses are their bread and butter. They are not going mirrorless in droves. Especially without native long lenses available for them.

Now on the video side mirrorless works OK other than the heat dissipation element. Most use wide to normal lenses so no real problem handling wise. But from what I gather these new Panasonic cameras, like the new Oly are Photo cameras not video. Seems like both are doing a death wish.

[IronFilm]

20 hours ago, JurijTurnsek said:

You can find the article on other popular photo sites ... basically Canon is saying that they will put more emphasis on R&D for industrial markets, not so much for consumers.

 

Given how slowly Canon trickles out new features to consumers already.... haven't they been doing this to us for years? ha! :-P 

[Dunjoye]

Guys, even if the camera had magic lantern raw features it won't make a significant difference to their sales. 

This is just a sign of the times we are living in. Smartphones cameras and so many alternative options available in the camera market.

[thephoenix]

just the consequences of their products and prices policy.

how can you expect selling expensive stuff that doesn't do half of what competitors sell for much cheaper...

at a moment consumers start to feel fuc..ed up and turn to other brands

 

[JurijTurnsek]

I really don't understand why come out with such a pessimistic statement? Do they wish to turn away loyal customers or are they trying to protect the resale value of the gear (while the competition tries to win them over with bigger improvements)?

Is this a public message to their investors that the decline is inevitable and that they have done everything right and that the market is simply shrinking (like Apple did when they had to revise their profit predictions down)?

[Snowbro]

Won't hurt them that much because of how they rotate production & common costs

"A common cost is an expense associated with operating a facility, product, or segment that is shared between two or more departments or users. In other words, it's a shared expense of creating a product or providing a service that can't be attributed to a single department or user."

[webrunner5]

Yeah but a 50% drop would wipe out any profit margin. It is like canned vegetables. They only make penny's on the dollar per can, but they sell Millions of them a week. That is what Canon is, Quantity. They might as well shutter the plants right now if true.