Canon predicting a 50% decline in sales units in the next 2 years

[BTM_Pix]

45 minutes ago, webrunner5 said:

It is like canned vegetables. They only make penny's on the dollar per can, but they sell Millions of them a week. That is what Canon is.

They have diversified from tinned vegetables to tinned fruit a few times with some right lemons.

[Mokara]

On 1/29/2019 at 2:54 AM, JurijTurnsek said:

You can find the article on other popular photo sites ... basically Canon is saying that they will put more emphasis on R&D for industrial markets, not so much for consumers.

Seems like a drastic prediction, but it seems like a logical consequence of evolutionary updates to already very capable hardware. Mobile phone content consumption is even lowering the bar to what is needed to produce "PRO-looking" footage - why bother upgrading you gear anyway?

Of course, this can be seen as a welcome change of pace, no more GAS, just content creation.

The reason for that is sales are steadily declining. It is not necessarily the case for other manufacturers though, especially those who are in the general sensor business since their sensor development is leveraged by their other businesses. It is much easier for a company like Sony or Panasonic to make a profit in the long run for this reason, while a company like Canon or Nikon are looking at a future where competitive development will consume all their profits and probably more.

For Canon it is probably becoming prohibitively expensive to do enough development to stay on the cutting edge, so they know that in the long run over time they will gradually lose out to the companies with other semiconductor businesses. It is a war of attrition that they will lose, and they know it, so, to remain viable as a company going forward they have to diversify. You can see this happening now as they expand into other fields, presumably ones they see a competitive future in.

[mercer]

Honestly, this whole statement seems odd to me. Why would they invest so much R&D into the RF line only to stop producing cameras? I think what you are seeing is the beginning of their camera line consolidation that has been rumored for awhile now. They will not continue with so many lower end consumer models while still investing and producing the mid tier and pro models. 

Personally, I think the RF Mount was a dumb move and they should have stuck with EF. They could have introduced some great primes and internal mechanisms that would have benefitted all of their current lenses. As is, these new filter adapters (which are really cool) only benefit the EF Mount or lenses adapted to EF... so their main camera mount cannot benefit from it... it makes no sense.

[Mako Sports]

6 minutes ago, mercer said:

Honestly, this whole statement seems odd to me. Why would they invest so much R&D into the RF line only to stop producing cameras?

Bc there is still money that can be made which there is. Nikon will probably close its doors before Canon becuase they actually have a foothold in the ENG/Video world. A market where there is still a ton of money. 

[mercer]

Well Canon isn’t closing their doors anytime soon. They’re still the biggest camera manufacturer in the world and they won’t lose that title overnight. 

[Mokara]

1 hour ago, mercer said:

Honestly, this whole statement seems odd to me. Why would they invest so much R&D into the RF line only to stop producing cameras? I think what you are seeing is the beginning of their camera line consolidation that has been rumored for awhile now. They will not continue with so many lower end consumer models while still investing and producing the mid tier and pro models. 

Personally, I think the RF Mount was a dumb move and they should have stuck with EF. They could have introduced some great primes and internal mechanisms that would have benefitted all of their current lenses. As is, these new filter adapters (which are really cool) only benefit the EF Mount or lenses adapted to EF... so their main camera mount cannot benefit from it... it makes no sense.

Those R&D dollars would have been spent years ago though. My guess is that they don't see that as a sustainable path going forward, at least for them. 

One consequence of that logic is that they will be cutting down on the number of models available. I think that not too many new (as in a complete redesign) DSLRs are going to be made. They might do minor electronic updates on older bodies but what is currently on the market are probably the last DSLR models that are going to be made (although some already designed may still be making their way through production). Anything new will likely be an R model.

The DSLR era is over.

[webrunner5]

Also on this industrial market thing I think it is the cash cow Canon, and Sony, others are going to go for, and that is all this Security Camera boom going on. Man there is a camera every place you can put a camera. But I am sure there is a Huge market for more of them , and more of them that have higher definition. DPAF would be pretty sweet for a surveillance camera. You figure cameras for space, medical, heck just about anything you can think of uses cameras.

I know Canon has been making industrial cameras for years, but most high end stuff I have seen has a Sony name on it. I am sure Canon wants to get a bigger piece of that pie, who wouldn't. I am sure it is a Much larger market than personal cameras and sort of never ending with tech the way it is going.

[mercer]

24 minutes ago, Mokara said:

The DSLR era is over.

The rest of your reply has valid points but I’m not sure I agree with this last bit. To this day, when I am out and about, and I see people with interchangeable lens cameras, 9 out of 10 times they are DSLRs and I love smack dab in the middle between NYC and Philly so I do see a lot of tourists in my travels. DSLR sales may be dwindling but I don’t believe there is any proof, that I have heard of or saw, that mirrorless is picking up the slack. But I may be wrong, just an observation. 

[webrunner5]

I need to get out more I guess LoL. All I see is Smartphones taking pictures. I can't think of the last DSLR I have seen around here other than my son with his ML 5D mk III.. I haven't owned one myself for 5 years I guess. I would sure take a Canon 1D C but. For birding a D500 would work also I guess. But man the lenses needed, wow. They get just silly looking to be honest, not counting silly prices.

[Robert Collins]

Canon has maintained their market share of ILC near 50% for the last few years which is pretty remarkable considering their sensor tech is well behind.

I think though, that this market share in units has been achieved by dominating the entry level cameras with eos-m and the Rebels. Seems to me they have ceded much of the FF high end to Sony (coming from a low base) and APSC high end to Fuji. Just got back fron a trip to Ethiopia with 11 Thais - just 2 x Canon (5D) and both of them had Sonys, 4-5 Sonys, 3-4 Nikon, 2 Fujis, 1 Leica, 1 Hasselblad.

The problem for Canon at the lower end is that it is these cameras that are most vulnerable to erosion from Smartphones. The fact that they see a declining market also implies little investment. And as the world becomes mirrorless, I think Canon's market share is certain to decline.

[webrunner5]

Yeah but what is crazy all they have to do is bust their ass and hit 2 or 3 home runs and they are back on top. No holding back, balls to the wall. Now do they have the actual tech to do that, I don't know? But man they had better do that sooner than later, or their goose is cooked.

[Mokara]

23 hours ago, mercer said:

The rest of your reply has valid points but I’m not sure I agree with this last bit. To this day, when I am out and about, and I see people with interchangeable lens cameras, 9 out of 10 times they are DSLRs and I love smack dab in the middle between NYC and Philly so I do see a lot of tourists in my travels. DSLR sales may be dwindling but I don’t believe there is any proof, that I have heard of or saw, that mirrorless is picking up the slack. But I may be wrong, just an observation. 

They are not going to disappear, there are lots in the wild, but most people are not going to be inclined to buy them new. Except perhaps at the very high levels of the pro market.

ILC sales are going down, and almost all of that is due to decline in DSLR sales. MILCs are steady with a slight uptick. All that will change with the new R and Z camera series though, and it is hard to see who would buy DSLRs in any sort of numbers going forward. My prediction is that MILC sales numbers for 2018 will be stronger than previous years, and 2019 they will be the dominant form factor.

I have been saying this for quite a while on the Canon Rumors site, that around 2019 would be the inflection point for the MILC/DSLR war, but all their "experts" were scoffing at that. We will see who was right soon enough

On 1/30/2019 at 5:00 PM, webrunner5 said:

Also on this industrial market thing I think it is the cash cow Canon, and Sony, others are going to go for, and that is all this Security Camera boom going on. Man there is a camera every place you can put a camera. But I am sure there is a Huge market for more of them , and more of them that have higher definition. DPAF would be pretty sweet for a surveillance camera. You figure cameras for space, medical, heck just about anything you can think of uses cameras.

I know Canon has been making industrial cameras for years, but most high end stuff I have seen has a Sony name on it. I am sure Canon wants to get a bigger piece of that pie, who wouldn't. I am sure it is a Much larger market than personal cameras and sort of never ending with tech the way it is going.

Surveillance cameras have huge depth of field and lowish resolution, so AF is not critical for them. And in any case, other companies have simpler focus systems that are good enough, so something relatively expensive to implement like DPAF probably won't fly.

[webrunner5]

Nah they have Redlight cameras that can read the writing on a postage stamp 25 yards away. That is how they know your plates are expired.  And some have AF. In this day and age blurry ass shots are becoming a thing of the past. There is a push for higher resolution. It is pretty much every camera out there has the opportunity to be replaced down the road. That is a HUGE potential market. Way more than hoping Bob or Mary Lou buy a cheap ass DSLR and a kit lens. Most existing cameras are 480p, 720p at best. HD alone would be an enormous upgrade.