Race to the bottom

[IronFilm]

On 4/14/2019 at 9:52 AM, KnightsFan said:

Edit: Couldn't resist adding this one: An AI found a glitch in the video game Qbert to get an obscenely high score. In 35 years, no human had found the glitch.

https://www.theverge.com/tldr/2018/2/28/17062338/ai-agent-atari-q-bert-cracked-bug-cheat

That is very cool!

The biggest event for me of 2017 was when AlphaGo beat the best human, very impressive. 

 

[IronFilm]

On 4/14/2019 at 7:52 PM, UncleBobsPhotography said:

I am not sure if you're sarcastic or not... In South Korea they have wedding halls that run one wedding every 30 or 60 minutes. The whole thing is so repetitive and since the same format is used 10 times each day, it would easily be worth the investment to put cameras on rail in the ceiling for every viable angle. I haven't been to a wedding in 6 years, so they might very well have implemented it already.

Western weddings are a bit more disorganized, but I still think a large portion of the shots could be automated.

Spent less than two minutes on google and it looks like they've got cameras built in (that security camera looking thingy on the top right):

https://kimchiicecream.wordpress.com/2010/05/24/korean-wedding-hallcastle-culture-jason-when-are-you-and-julianne-getting-married-you-should-get-married/

 

Certainly a low budget wedding! 
(although I don't spot any robot cameras in that video)

[jpfilmz]

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Spent less than two minutes on google and it looks like they've got cameras built in (that security camera looking thingy on the top right):

https://kimchiicecream.wordpress.com/2010/05/24/korean-wedding-hallcastle-culture-jason-when-are-you-and-julianne-getting-married-you-should-get-married/

 

Certainly a low budget wedding! 
(although I don't spot any robot cameras in that video)

Im not sure many here actually shoot many weddings.  In my market its laughable to think robots and fixed security cams can match what I can do with other humans. Today or anytime soon in the wedding video market.

[webrunner5]

2 hours ago, jpfilmz said:

Im not sure many here actually shoot many weddings.  In my market its laughable to think robots and fixed security cams can match what I can do with other humans. Today or anytime soon in the wedding video market.

The wedding part is about half way trough. It is not only that Robots Can do it, it is that more and more people are not going to pay ANYONE to shoot it. Keep your day job is the take away. Young people just don't have any money with Student Debt, Credit Card Debit. And a Smartphone on average with 50 people shooting them gets the job done well enough in this day and age for a lot of people that go down to Wal Mart and get them printed. Bingo.

 

[jpfilmz]

1 hour ago, webrunner5 said:

The wedding part is about half way trough. It is not only that Robots Can do it, it is that more and more people are not going to pay ANYONE to shoot it. Keep your day job is the take away. Young people just don't have any money with Student Debt, Credit Card Debit. And a Smartphone on average with 50 people shooting them gets the job done well enough in this day and age for a lot of people that go down to Wal Mart and get them printed. Bingo.

 

People will always pay for someone to focus in on that aspect of a wedding if they want it done right no matter what the picture/video capture taking box is.  My focus is documentary style wedding production and cell phones or fixed ceiling cams cannot make it through 8 - 10 hrs a day of video recording through different environments and locations. Even taking photos would't work.  Imagine someone with a cell gimbal phone invading the alter the space of the bride, groom and pastor just to get a close up of the wedding rings.   I'd slather that type of customer experience competition every time.  By all means have at it....more differentiation for me.  

It's like to see AI and Robots endure following a bridge and groom around for 8/10hrs a day in multiple locations indoor and outdoor on weddings shoots.  

 

 

[IronFilm]

7 hours ago, jpfilmz said:

Im not sure many here actually shoot many weddings.  In my market its laughable to think robots and fixed security cams can match what I can do with other humans. Today or anytime soon in the wedding video market.

I've shot tonnes of weddings, and I've also studied CompSci in my degree (even went so far as to start a Masters in Computer Science, but never finished it) plus I'm a bit time A.I. geek. 

My view is that robotic AI cameras/software won't replace humans filming weddings in the near future, but could it happen in my life time...  ? I'm reasonably skeptical it could happen during my working life, but also it still is a very real possibility that I could easily imagine happening, especially in the low/mid range weddings. At the very least it could lead to a three person crew being replaced with just one person and the editing being almost totally automated. 

[webrunner5]

4 hours ago, jpfilmz said:

People will always pay for someone to focus in on that aspect of a wedding if they want it done right no matter what the picture/video capture taking box is.  My focus is documentary style wedding production and cell phones or fixed ceiling cams cannot make it through 8 - 10 hrs a day of video recording through different environments and locations. Even taking photos would't work.  Imagine someone with a cell gimbal phone invading the alter the space of the bride, groom and pastor just to get a close up of the wedding rings.   I'd slather that type of customer experience competition every time.  By all means have at it....more differentiation for me.  

It's like to see AI and Robots endure following a bridge and groom around for 8/10hrs a day in multiple locations indoor and outdoor on weddings shoots.  

 

 

I fail to see ONE shot that could not be done with a Smartphone in your footage. I think you are living in a dream world.

[PrometheusDM]

7 hours ago, jpfilmz said:

People will always pay for someone to focus in on that aspect of a wedding if they want it done right no matter what the picture/video capture taking box is.  My focus is documentary style wedding production and cell phones or fixed ceiling cams cannot make it through 8 - 10 hrs a day of video recording through different environments and locations. Even taking photos would't work.  Imagine someone with a cell gimbal phone invading the alter the space of the bride, groom and pastor just to get a close up of the wedding rings.   I'd slather that type of customer experience competition every time.  By all means have at it....more differentiation for me.  

It's like to see AI and Robots endure following a bridge and groom around for 8/10hrs a day in multiple locations indoor and outdoor on weddings shoots.  

 

 

I think you are too fixated on having an ACTUAL robot to the filming. We aren't going to need to have robot filming/photography to be disruptive. The disruption will come from both hardware and software.

Imagine AI software that allow you to import all the video and images and it will analyze all the scenes, generated multiple draft of final edited video with music, transitions, title. It will be able to copy another videographer's editing style and apply to your videos.

This combined with affordable camera and useful features such as DPAF & affordable gimbal will allow any weekend warriors to do videography as a side hustle and undercharge the full timers. If I spend 10 hours shooting and the software will take care the rest, I have no problem charging less.

I have work with alot of wedding videographers and have seen alot of the final edit. The videos are very generic and formulaic. I would have no problem doing it myself as a weekend warrior let alone a sophisticated AI software. I would definitely raised the bar even though I mostly shoot stills.

I think you are underestimating the combination of human operator and sophisticated AI software able to produce quality works and undercut the competitions.

I can definitely see the perfect storm happening when the recession hit and even people with 4 years degree unable to find a job (there alot!), people sick of working for min wage, job loss from automation (automated car, factory worker, job taken away from robot) and so many affordable quality gears (imagine DJI Osmo Pocket Pro version with bigger sensor sub $1000, mic, LED light ), sophisticated AI software that cut significant editing time and plenty of free and premium education out there. The quality will rise significantly while the pricing goes down.

[dbp]

10 hours ago, webrunner5 said:

The wedding part is about half way trough. It is not only that Robots Can do it, it is that more and more people are not going to pay ANYONE to shoot it. Keep your day job is the take away. Young people just don't have any money with Student Debt, Credit Card Debit. And a Smartphone on average with 50 people shooting them gets the job done well enough in this day and age for a lot of people that go down to Wal Mart and get them printed. Bingo.

 

Naw, there will always be reach families who will pay $5000 because it's peanuts to them. Tons and tons of those couples in Vancouver and by the looks of it, DC as well. 

You're right about the majority, though. Most won't pay for anything extravagant with their wedding, and if they do, video is routinely the last priority. I worked for a guy who offered DJ, photo, event planning, photobooth, and he said video was always bottom of the bucket.

BUT, I've also seen it routinely listed in articles as the thing couples regret not doing the most. 

The key is, you have to get really goddamn good, and then you can have a pretty comfortable living in the high end market. But that will only happen in a big city with ample rich people.

Otherwise, work for peanuts. 

 

[dbp]

12 minutes ago, PrometheusDM said:

I think you are too fixated on having an ACTUAL robot to the filming. We aren't going to need to have robot filming/photography to be disruptive. The disruption will come from both hardware and software.

 

Yep, all of this. It doesn't mean actual robots will film weddings. 

It means AI will seep into the industry and have a trickle down effect. An accelerated version of what's already happened with cheap hardware and saturated talent.

I'm 34, but I've been on forums like these long enough to learn about what the generation prior to mine were able to charge. The rates for basic talking head clips blew my mind! But you could do it, back in the day. And frankly, the quality was trash. A lot of those folks washed out because they could no longer command the same rates as the younger crowd, and they got blown out of the water by people with actual artistic sensibilities. You have to stay ahead of this game, or it will eat you up.

And hell yes weddings are formulaic. The videos, the photos, everything. Anyone saying otherwise is full of shit. I've produced enough of em'. I've seen enough from people all over Canada and the US. Slow motion walking through the trees and kissing to some goddamn Tony Anderson song. Seen it, x1000. AI can and will whip those up, and weekend warriors will undercut, and people WILL laugh at the old rates, cause they don't have to pay them. The wedding industry preys on the idea that weddings are expensive, and people should expect to pay alot. Photo/video has benefited from this for years.

 

[PrometheusDM]

40 minutes ago, dbp said:

Yep, all of this. It doesn't mean actual robots will film weddings. 

It means AI will seep into the industry and have a trickle down effect. An accelerated version of what's already happened with cheap hardware and saturated talent.

I'm 34, but I've been on forums like these long enough to learn about what the generation prior to mine were able to charge. The rates for basic talking head clips blew my mind! But you could do it, back in the day. And frankly, the quality was trash. A lot of those folks washed out because they could no longer command the same rates as the younger crowd, and they got blown out of the water by people with actual artistic sensibilities. You have to stay ahead of this game, or it will eat you up.

And hell yes weddings are formulaic. The videos, the photos, everything. Anyone saying otherwise is full of shit. I've produced enough of em'. I've seen enough from people all over Canada and the US. Slow motion walking through the trees and kissing to some goddamn Tony Anderson song. Seen it, x1000. AI can and will whip those up, and weekend warriors will undercut, and people WILL laugh at the old rates, cause they don't have to pay them. The wedding industry preys on the idea that weddings are expensive, and people should expect to pay alot. Photo/video has benefited from this for years.

 

I'm in the same age bracket. Great mind think alike ha!

Years ago you can make a career just by taking decent SOOC exposure from film. With the invention of DSLR, taking decent SOOC isn't enough. Recent tech even make things even more easier now with eyeAF tracking, and EVF allowing WYSIYG. Now we have animal tracking. Alot of niche of photography are  very difficult to make money now as a career that was once a viable career (journalist, magazine photographer).  

Technology won't replace cream of the crop photographer/videographer with good marketing, but it does enough damage to low and midtier market where most of the clients are.

None of the stuff I've seen are that impressive for me to be so naive it can't be imitate or duplicate by sophicate AI software, basic human operator, readily available quality education, and affordable gears.

 

[webrunner5]

Unfortunately a perfect storm is brewing in the Photo, Video business, probably a lot of other businesses also. Like it or not people are just making less and less money every year. The Middle class, at least in the USA Is shrinking to me at an alarming rate. So that means less and less money to pay Pros to shoot both markets. And to top it off an amazing downward cost of pretty amazing photo, video equipment the average person can buy now. And Auto everything on them actually Does work pretty well. I mean other than in low light, or fast movement, it is damn near impossible to take a bad Smartphone picture or video on them. For the average person they are Way good enough for them output wise. Now the new phones are coming with 3 lenses on them.  And they soon will have zooms, real zooms.

Look at YouTube. It is actually hard to find a video that anyone on there posts that looks even remotely terrible. I think on average most look pretty amazing. It has gotten damn easy to do this stuff. Sure maybe the story line is not the greatest, but a heck of a lot of people have some pretty good sites on there. I sure don't see a Photo or Video career the most stable way to make a living anymore down the road. A person is going to have to be Really, Really good to survive long term and make enough to be the bread winner in it.

[IronFilm]

7 hours ago, webrunner5 said:

I fail to see ONE shot that could not be done with a Smartphone in your footage. I think you are living in a dream world.

I strongly disagree.

But with a smartphone from 2035? Wellllll.........


Maybe!

4 hours ago, PrometheusDM said:

I think you are too fixated on having an ACTUAL robot to the filming. We aren't going to need to have robot filming/photography to be disruptive. The disruption will come from both hardware and software.

Imagine AI software that allow you to import all the video and images and it will analyze all the scenes, generated multiple draft of final edited video with music, transitions, title. It will be able to copy another videographer's editing style and apply to your videos.

This combined with affordable camera and useful features such as DPAF & affordable gimbal will allow any weekend warriors to do videography as a side hustle and undercharge the full timers. If I spend 10 hours shooting and the software will take care the rest, I have no problem charging less.

I have work with alot of wedding videographers and have seen alot of the final edit. The videos are very generic and formulaic. I would have no problem doing it myself as a weekend warrior let alone a sophisticated AI software. I would definitely raised the bar even though I mostly shoot stills.

I think you are underestimating the combination of human operator and sophisticated AI software able to produce quality works and undercut the competitions.

This. 

I suspect the first major disrupting will happen on the editing side. 

However... we'll see it happen on the capture side as well. Imagine crowdsourcing your wedding footage from all your dozens/hundreds of wedding guests? You'll get coverage that one professional can't even manage on their own. 
 

Yes, cellphones can't do that now (neither the capture quality level, or the easy access to dump them at the end of the night. Although the later is much closer than the former). 

But do any of you remember how bad cellphones were in the early 2000's? I was a big time mobile phone camera geek back then! But looking back now they were rubbish compared to what we have in 2019!! Start guessing what we might have by 2035 in the pockets of every guest?

I imagine we'll also see before then a middle ground happen as well, when a mix of robot cameras / crowed sourced and a human videographer gets used. Imagine this scenario, which doesn't sound that far fetched to me at all:

All guests download an app which at the end of the night uploads all their footage from the wedding to the cloud for the AI editor. The wedding videographer arrives and installs half a dozen robot cameras on stands with have hundreds of thousands of weddings experience built into their AI. The wedding videographer (initially in the early years of the hybrid approach the human would need to be very skilled to fill in all the gaps and carefully fine tune the placement of the set up, but in later years the human "videographer" would need  to be no more skilled than the minimum wage grunt who brings in the PA system and plugs everything in) then focuses on capturing moments which: a) he knows from experience either the guests or the robot cameras tend to not be great at getting & b) key shots 

Then the AI software spits out a few edited video options to choose from, created from a mix of the guest smartphone footage + robot AI cameras + the one human videographer (who installed the robot camera at the venue, although at permanent wedding venues they won't even need this person as they'll have their AI robot cameras set up all the time). The married couple can pick the one(s) they like the most, and give feedback to the AI editor which can further improve the result for both this couple and all future couples. 

Might not be that many years away until with this hybrid approach a $500 videographer is matching the quality of $2K wedding videographers. 
 

[webrunner5]

45 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

I strongly disagree.

But with a smartphone from 2035? Wellllll.........


Maybe!

This. 

I suspect the first major disrupting will happen on the editing side. 

However... we'll see it happen on the capture side as well. Imagine crowdsourcing your wedding footage from all your dozens/hundreds of wedding guests? You'll get coverage that one professional can't even manage on their own. 
 

Yes, cellphones can't do that now (neither the capture quality level, or the easy access to dump them at the end of the night. Although the later is much closer than the former). 

But do any of you remember how bad cellphones were in the early 2000's? I was a big time mobile phone camera geek back then! But looking back now they were rubbish compared to what we have in 2019!! Start guessing what we might have by 2035 in the pockets of every guest?

I imagine we'll also see before then a middle ground happen as well, when a mix of robot cameras / crowed sourced and a human videographer gets used. Imagine this scenario, which doesn't sound that far fetched to me at all:

All guests download an app which at the end of the night uploads all their footage from the wedding to the cloud for the AI editor. The wedding videographer arrives and installs half a dozen robot cameras on stands with have hundreds of thousands of weddings experience built into their AI. The wedding videographer (initially in the early years of the hybrid approach the human would need to be very skilled to fill in all the gaps and carefully fine tune the placement of the set up, but in later years the human "videographer" would need  to be no more skilled than the minimum wage grunt who brings in the PA system and plugs everything in) then focuses on capturing moments which: a) he knows from experience either the guests or the robot cameras tend to not be great at getting & b) key shots 

Then the AI software spits out a few edited video options to choose from, created from a mix of the guest smartphone footage + robot AI cameras + the one human videographer (who installed the robot camera at the venue, although at permanent wedding venues they won't even need this person as they'll have their AI robot cameras set up all the time). The married couple can pick the one(s) they like the most, and give feedback to the AI editor which can further improve the result for both this couple and all future couples. 

Might not be that many years away until with this hybrid approach a $500 videographer is matching the quality of $2K wedding videographers. 
 

You 2 people are funny as hell. Maybe you both own a Apple 4s. 2035, they can kick ass right now. For a Wedding we are taking 90% of it is Photos. You think you can't take a picture with a new Smartphone right now today? Pros have taken weddings with old 4mp early digital cameras, ENG cameras with 1mp sensors in them. Some people are just clueless what has transpired before in this and the photo industry in the last 40 years. You act like there has Always been a Arri Alexa and a 100mp Phase One MF camera.

The people you people are trying to sell your services to have no god damn clue in hell what great quality is. If it is as good as their cellphone you are Golden. If you think you have to have a 8K video camera, or a MF 80mp photo camera to make a living as a wedding shooter you had better find a new career path. This place is starting to sound more like DPR everyday. Depressing as hell at times. I am just sitting here shaking my head.

[IronFilm]

41 minutes ago, webrunner5 said:

You 2 people are funny as hell. Maybe you both own a Apple 4s. 2035, they can kick ass right now. For a Wedding we are taking 90% of it is Photos. You think you can't take a picture with a new Smartphone right now today? Pros have taken weddings with old 4mp early digital cameras, ENG cameras with 1mp sensors in them. Some people are just clueless what has transpired before in this and the photo industry in the last 40 years. You act like there has Always been a Arri Alexa and a 100mp Phase One MF camera.

No, I neither ignore nor am I ignorant of that past. (heck, the old cellphone I was talking about didn't even have 4 megapixels!)

Rather my point is I feel for many low end / mainstream brides then we could quickly be reaching a point of "good enough" for quality. (while none of them want to go back to their weddings being filmed with 1MP sensors!!)

So when quality is "good enough", what happens next? Does quality keep on going up? Yes, for some, for those who will pay for it. But for many others they will happily keep the current rough level of quality we see today in the low/mid range weddings, and swap it for even faster service (imagine AI which has edited that video in time for the dinner that night for everyone in the wedding party to see! Same day edits, every time) and even cheaper prices. (no longer will you need three highly skilled professionals with high end gear, it can all be done with some grunt labour at minimum wage done by just one person setting it up plus futuristic consumer grade equipment)

I would have assumed that someone's experience with the past like yourself and knowing how very very far we've come would be much less skeptical about future predictions of just simply carrying on that same progress! As really your "appeals to the past" arguments just further strengthen my points I'm making!

 

41 minutes ago, webrunner5 said:

If it is as good as their cellphone you are Golden.

Then you also have no job as a wedding videographer today if you're showing up to shoot with a cellphone (except as a gimmick). 

[IronFilm]

Researchers Observe Chimpanzees Using Pro Tools

https://www.theonion.com/researchers-observe-chimpanzees-using-pro-tools-1829371950

 

?

Next step is AI will replace the chimps

[IronFilm]

6 hours ago, dbp said:

Yep, all of this. It doesn't mean actual robots will film weddings. 

It means AI will seep into the industry and have a trickle down effect. An accelerated version of what's already happened with cheap hardware and saturated talent.

I'm 34, but I've been on forums like these long enough to learn about what the generation prior to mine were able to charge. The rates for basic talking head clips blew my mind! But you could do it, back in the day. And frankly, the quality was trash. A lot of those folks washed out because they could no longer command the same rates as the younger crowd, and they got blown out of the water by people with actual artistic sensibilities. You have to stay ahead of this game, or it will eat you up.

 And hell yes weddings are formulaic. The videos, the photos, everything. Anyone saying otherwise is full of shit. I've produced enough of em'. I've seen enough from people all over Canada and the US. Slow motion walking through the trees and kissing to some goddamn Tony Anderson song. Seen it, x1000. AI can and will whip those up, and weekend warriors will undercut, and people WILL laugh at the old rates, cause they don't have to pay them. The wedding industry preys on the idea that weddings are expensive, and people should expect to pay alot. Photo/video has benefited from this for years.

 

Yup, no longer could you get a mortgage on your house, buy a camera and editing suite then be able to charge the earth for simple talking head videos because no one else was available to be booked. Then just hit record.

Now you better be able to craft decent 3 point lighting plus decent audio as well, just as a starting point, and be a master of all the new upcoming trends and keep ahead. 

[MrSMW]

Which comes first (next), Planet of the Apes, or Terminator?

[IronFilm]

5 hours ago, PrometheusDM said:

I'm in the same age bracket. Great mind think alike ha!

Me too, is everyone in this thread (aside from webrunner :-P ) aged 34?

6 hours ago, PrometheusDM said:

Years ago you can make a career just by taking decent SOOC exposure from film.

Yup, back in the film days just getting decent exposure and focus required a reasonable amount of skill. Far more than is needed today! Relatively speaking

[jpfilmz]

9 hours ago, IronFilm said:

I strongly disagree.

But with a smartphone from 2035? Wellllll.........


Maybe!

This. 

I suspect the first major disrupting will happen on the editing side. 

However... we'll see it happen on the capture side as well. Imagine crowdsourcing your wedding footage from all your dozens/hundreds of wedding guests? You'll get coverage that one professional can't even manage on their own. 
 

Yes, cellphones can't do that now (neither the capture quality level, or the easy access to dump them at the end of the night. Although the later is much closer than the former). 

But do any of you remember how bad cellphones were in the early 2000's? I was a big time mobile phone camera geek back then! But looking back now they were rubbish compared to what we have in 2019!! Start guessing what we might have by 2035 in the pockets of every guest?

I imagine we'll also see before then a middle ground happen as well, when a mix of robot cameras / crowed sourced and a human videographer gets used. Imagine this scenario, which doesn't sound that far fetched to me at all:

All guests download an app which at the end of the night uploads all their footage from the wedding to the cloud for the AI editor. The wedding videographer arrives and installs half a dozen robot cameras on stands with have hundreds of thousands of weddings experience built into their AI. The wedding videographer (initially in the early years of the hybrid approach the human would need to be very skilled to fill in all the gaps and carefully fine tune the placement of the set up, but in later years the human "videographer" would need  to be no more skilled than the minimum wage grunt who brings in the PA system and plugs everything in) then focuses on capturing moments which: a) he knows from experience either the guests or the robot cameras tend to not be great at getting & b) key shots 

Then the AI software spits out a few edited video options to choose from, created from a mix of the guest smartphone footage + robot AI cameras + the one human videographer (who installed the robot camera at the venue, although at permanent wedding venues they won't even need this person as they'll have their AI robot cameras set up all the time). The married couple can pick the one(s) they like the most, and give feedback to the AI editor which can further improve the result for both this couple and all future couples. 

Might not be that many years away until with this hybrid approach a $500 videographer is matching the quality of $2K wedding videographers. 
 

 

17 hours ago, webrunner5 said:

I fail to see ONE shot that could not be done with a Smartphone in your footage. I think you are living in a dream world.

That just speaks to your experience level.  Good luck with hawking irobot, eagle eye and cell phone wedding shoots.  I'm good on my side and not worried about it.