Full frame rival sales figures = grim reading for everyone vs Sony

[Andrew Reid]

This is sad news and maybe premature, but in my opinion all the new full frame systems all have strategic flaws.

The BCN numbers are out in Japan which show a limp launch for all the new full frame systems, followed by a tanking of sales soon afterwards until they're a fraction of the Sony A7 III. The bottom line quite literally is that Canon and Nikon are failing to take business away from Sony in the full frame mirrorless market (at least if Japan is anything to go by).

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[Michael Steiner]

I think this is the first time I agree with Mr Reid on 99 percent of what he writes.

Especially in regards to the codec. Why isn’t ProRes an option on any of the japanese sub 15000$-Cameras? What is holding them back? Nobody is spending 3 times more only for a better codec. And with BMD you have it in Cams tha cost only 1000$. So why not implement it? Its like capturing all your stills as PDFs. Somehow you‘ll get it to work but why not just use jpg...?

[Andrew Reid]

Apple certification, license fees, can't be that expensive or difficult as Blackmagic manages it all the time on much cheaper cameras than the Panasonic S1. Sort it out Japan!

[Video Hummus]

1 hour ago, Michi said:

I think this is the first time I agree with Mr Reid on 99 percent of what he writes.

Especially in regards to the codec. Why isn’t ProRes an option on any of the japanese sub 15000$-Cameras? What is holding them back? Nobody is spending 3 times more only for a better codec. And with BMD you have it in Cams tha cost only 1000$. So why not implement it? Its like capturing all your stills as PDFs. Somehow you‘ll get it to work but why not just use jpg...?

Uh, Canon/Nikon/Panasonic would rather make you buy a $5000+ cinema camera for the better codecs than to put it in a $2000 hybrid camera. It’s called up-selling.

Why Panasonic doesn’t offer it in its GH5S, a heavily video centric camera, I’m not sure. My guess is lack of compute power/heat dissipation in that form factor.

BMD is doing the right thing. Offering great options in lots of different form factors. The fact that the P4K has BRAW for $1500 is insane.

[Kisaha]

1) too many unproven systems

2) too many EF and Nikon lenses. Most professionals do not change systems at will.

3) recent cameras are good enough already for most uses and users.

4) video is a very important aspect and there are a lot of non traditional players offering good video solutions. From Blackmagic to action cameras to 360/VR to drones to DJI e.t.c

5) Sony did it! But that doesn't mean that this lead won't change in the next few years. Canonikon were relatively late to the game.

[Andrew Reid]

Yes good points Kisaha.

2) especially.

Then again, the Nikon FTZ adapter doesn't seem to be helping the Z6/Z7 sales.

My Z7 cost me 3800 euros. 5 months later, I am struggling to shift it for £2300 on eBay and it's practically new with all the original packaging. I am a bit livid about that.

Perhaps the worst investment I've ever made... Z6 just seemed to kill it. Way too similar. Way too expensive on the Z7 pricing. At the least, the Z7 should have been a different body style aimed only at pros.

[ND64]

This market is so much smaller than what it was that it doesn't matter who is number 1 or 2 or 3 in sales anymore. 

[Michael Steiner]

4 hours ago, Video Hummus said:

Uh, Canon/Nikon/Panasonic would rather make you buy a $5000+ cinema camera for the better codecs than to put it in a $2000 hybrid camera. It’s called up-selling

Except there is no $5000 japanese camera that offers prores. There is the C700 for $30‘000 and the Varicam for $15‘000. I dont know of any other japanese camera that records to prores. So no, upselling is not the reason.

 Nobody says „Oh, the Sony A7 III/GH5/EOS R doesen’t offer ProRes? Then I‘ll get the C700 please.“

Even their Pro-Codecs XAVC and XF-AVC are just variations of h.264, right? 

[OliKMIA]

Yeah, my main still cameras are a bunch of 6D and 5D3 for timelapse and I just don't see any upgrade path at this point:

Canon R: basically a reheated 5D4, unusable video in 4k, ridiculously expensive lenses, outdated sensor tech
Canon RP: RIP
Nikon Z6 and Z7: ridiculously expensive lenses, the Z7 doesn't have a dual card slot which place this camera in a weird category (not pro but priced as such).
Panasonic S1 and S1R: potential issue with the alliance, very limited selection of lenses, HUGE mirrorless body, poor battery life, issue with the AF
Sony: horrible colors, horrible interface, lag, feels cheap, lot of sensor dust but at least it's improving (battery life) and the lens selection is good thanks to other manufacturers

The Nikon D850 is great for stills but I don't want to invest in a dying system (F mount).

So I'm sticking with my 2012 canon bodies for now. Keeping a close eye on Panasonic though.

[JurijTurnsek]

This feel like Sony is getting their due after years of innovation and being dismissed by the competition as "toys" etc. It still boggles the mind that the newly released systems from such established players have been thought out so bad. I guess customers don't care about the mount diameter that much, huh.

[anonim]

I think that all FF hybrids with their price simply have lost indie and aspiration filmmakers market, which today is not so little percentage of possible buyers. What once upon a time was photography as creative satisfaction, for new generation is dream about video/movie creation.

Those population will jump over FF, starting from m43 (BM, Panasonic, Chinese producers) to proper cinema cameras. FF hybrids simply miss wider market, Sony was first in the game and could for a longer time calculate with price, but I think not so long. How much to charge - and whom, actually - for A7s III, if even come, if it is close or identical in price of second hand Eva1 or UMP4.6?

[John Matthews]

Canon and Nikon still have the foothold in DSLR, but I expect at least one of them (probably Nikon) to release a hybrid pro DSLR, with a EVF on the mirror and that can do proper video. Canikon are simply deer looking into the headlights of a very, very fast car. They need a hybrid pro DSLR now; they'll keep their bread and butter if they do. If not, Sony will eat their lunch and Nikon will be the first to go down (which would be very sad). I'm not getting that sense of urgency from them though.

Sony's success demonstrates once again that specs, marketing tactics, and manufacturing control trump handling, color science, and quality. BTW, I have a Sony now because I wanted to use more vintage glass on the proper format because the newer lenses aren't making me happy.

Anyway, those are my thoughts if anyone cares.

[etidona]

Sony monopoly danger? Maybe

Do this market just needs to slow down?

Do we need to look at what we have from 2012 and realize it's good enough?

Do we have to sit back and watch the rise of smartphone cameras?

For now, I'm going to stick with my m43 gear. It's more than good enough, cheaper, lighter and gives me a really different aesthetic.

[Django]

I don't know if the future is that grim. All I know is CaNikon & Panasonic arrived late at the table.. in a shrinking market.

 

[Cliff Totten]

Its going to be fascinating to see what the XDCAM management team will "allow" the Alpha management team to give the new A7S-III. A Sony manager fir Russia was stating that he thinks the A7S-III wont have "deep color" as that is reserved for the XDCAM FS series only. I suspect he means 10bit.

I heard at NAB that Panasonic is very receptive to the S1 having 4k raw over HDMI and that it IS definetely comming to the S1 this year. Those same sources told me that Sony is not willing to go that far right now. Atomos is pressuring them but Sony is not buying into the raw idea for Alpha. (The next FS probably)

Will Alpha be allowed to have highly compressed 10bit internal recording or will it only be granted 10bit video HDMI? I would love to be a fly on the wall in these Alpha/XDCAM manager board room meetings!!

2019 is a massive political fight for managers inside Sony and Panasonic. Nikon?....no no, HDMI raw was an EASY choice!!!

[crazyrunner33]

I assume they would keep the internal bit rate low enough and make sure the cam doesn't become Netflix approved. It would make sense to release a camera that blows the doors off the competition, but still give a few reasons for high end productions to stick with the FS series.

[Topcat]

Very good points. The problem is that most established players in various fields are happy to play it safe and milk the consumers for big bucks for small improvements. We saw this in the phone business with Nokia and Blackberry when Apple and later Samsung ate their lunch. By the time a new technology like mirrorless FF has caught up these established players can't move fast enough to catch up with the market leader and once they start bleeding money they don't have the resources to catch up. As an enthusiast I've been waiting for almost 10 years for a sub US $1000 FF(new release price) but the established players have been in no hurry. Finally happened last year with A7II but that is a last generation with no 4K video. In the meantime the most innovation in imaging in the last decade has come from smartphone manufacturers squeezing the low end as well. I suspect that only one of Canon, Nikon, Olympus and Panasonic will survive in the camera market in the next decade. If you place a bet on the wrong horse you are going to see your equipment depreciate rapidly. Even my X-T3 has depreciated as much as a A7III bought several months before its release(about $300-400). That is the price for 4K 10 bit 60p internal. Buying a camera from these players today could very well be like buying a phone from Nokia or Blackberry in 2011. Only people with sentimental attachments or very specific requirements/mandates (encrypted corporate email, 4k 10 bit) will do it and these people should be prepared to pay a heavy price in the form of accelerated depreciation.

[eleison]

51 minutes ago, Cliff Totten said:

Its going to be fascinating to see what the XDCAM management team will "allow" the Alpha management team to give the new A7S-III. A Sony manager fir Russia was stating that he thinks the A7S-III wont have "deep color" as that is reserved for the XDCAM FS series only. I suspect he means 10bit.

I heard at NAB that Panasonic is very receptive to the S1 having 4k raw over HDMI and that it IS definetely comming to the S1 this year. Those same sources told me that Sony is not willing to go that far right now. Atomos is pressuring them but Sony is not buying into the raw idea for Alpha. (The next FS probably)

Will Alpha be allowed to have highly compressed 10bit internal recording or will it only be granted 10bit video HDMI? I would love to be a fly on the wall in these Alpha/XDCAM manager board room meetings!!

2019 is a massive political fight for managers inside Sony and Panasonic. Nikon?....no no, HDMI raw was an EASY choice!!! 

 

Yeah, sony is getting complacent, just like canon use to be.  Blackmagic and the Chinese manufactures see an opening with low cost cinema cameras and exploiting it.  If blackmagic gets good autofocusing, and and larger sensor; a lot less a7iii would have been sold.  blackmagic already has the most dominate color grading software, and slowly taking the NLE market.  That is sony's Achilles heel right now; I dont' think Sony knows this.  Good autofocusing, larger sensor and most youtube people would be using blackmagic instead of a7iii; image that; a lot of people bought the a7iii because of youtube people using them.

[Django]

54 minutes ago, Cliff Totten said:

Its going to be fascinating to see what the XDCAM management team will "allow" the Alpha management team to give the new A7S-III. A Sony manager fir Russia was stating that he thinks the A7S-III wont have "deep color" as that is reserved for the XDCAM FS series only. I suspect he means 10bit.

I heard at NAB that Panasonic is very receptive to the S1 having 4k raw over HDMI and that it IS definetely comming to the S1 this year. Those same sources told me that Sony is not willing to go that far right now. Atomos is pressuring them but Sony is not buying into the raw idea for Alpha. (The next FS probably)

Will Alpha be allowed to have highly compressed 10bit internal recording or will it only be granted 10bit video HDMI? I would love to be a fly on the wall in these Alpha/XDCAM manager board room meetings!!

2019 is a massive political fight for managers inside Sony and Panasonic. Nikon?....no no, HDMI raw was an EASY choice!!!

Sony (and Canon) have got to change mindsets about this. Currently, if you want 10-bit 4K internal from them you have to shell out $7K minimum for an FS7 & $10K for a C300 II.

indeed it seems XDCAM/EOS C managers are the ones cock blocking 10-bit internal from MILC line. I don't understand why they are so afraid of mirrorless.

I seriously don't think MILCs are a serious threat to cine cams. There is room for both. And if they don't adapt, other players like Fuji, Nikon and Panasonic will..

[eleison]

1 hour ago, Django said:

I seriously don't think MILCs are a serious threat to cine cams. There is room for both. And if they don't adapt, other players like Fuji, Nikon and Panasonic will.. 

 

People use to think MP3 were not a serious threat to high quality wav, or hd audio, etc...  Nobody really talks about the latter anymore - even among enthusiasts.  MILC will be a serious threat to cine cams.  Sony is so big.  How is it that it hasn't destroyed blackmagic yet?  It's because there is a market for low cost cinema camera and sony does not care about.  A lot of people bought the a7iii because youtube people were using it for their channel.  Imagine when and if everyone of them started using blackmagic cameras.  Video gear has gotten smaller and will continue to get smaller if it does it's intended job.