Canon rush to reassure investors as camera profits plunge 64%

[drm]

45 minutes ago, Robert Collins said:

Apparently over half of youngsters want to be youtubers/vloggers...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3617062/children-turn-backs-on-traditional-careers-in-favour-of-internet-fame-study-finds/

So presumably half the world will be youtubers and the other half will spend their time watching youtube...

LOL...and YouTube will continue to "tweak" the compensation packages so that the YouTubers make less than the people who would have been working at McDonalds if their jobs hadn't been replaced with automated kiosks... 

[Video Hummus]

24 minutes ago, drm said:

LOL...and YouTube will continue to "tweak" the compensation packages so that the YouTubers make less

YouTube is fantastical and dystopian at the same time. I think its great if it's a side project for fun and a bit of (vanishingly small) profit. I think full time isn't as great as people think it is.

Now back to filming cute kittens and silly dogs with my C300.

[Kisaha]

20 minutes ago, drm said:

LOL...and YouTube will continue to "tweak" the compensation packages so that the YouTubers make less than the people who would have been working at McDonalds if their jobs hadn't been replaced with automated kiosks... 

They do not care

"The biggest attractions are creativity, fame and the opportunity for self-expression, with money trailing in fourth place."

This generation is going to be something else. I am not sure if it is for good or bad, but definitely going to be very different.

[Robert Collins]

1 hour ago, Kisaha said:

This generation is going to be something else. I am not sure if it is for good or bad, but definitely going to be very different.

I am not optimistic. It seems to me that the whole social media - youtube/facebook etc - thing is 'one circular mind f**k'.

It seems that peoples actions are no longer driven by themselves but their perception of other peoples perception of them - the echo chamber of life.

IT seems an extremely efficient way of wasting time.

[Kisaha]

39 minutes ago, Robert Collins said:

I am not optimistic. It seems to me that the whole social media - youtube/facebook etc - thing is 'one circular mind f**k'.

It seems that peoples actions are no longer driven by themselves but their perception of other peoples perception of them - the echo chamber of life.

IT seems an extremely efficient way of wasting time.

Black Mirror has several such episodes. 

Most of the younger people I meet in sets are seriously underperforming while overperforming in social media (taking selfies with the actors, loose focus all the time and checking their phones constantly). I am not even on social media, and they had super amazing photos holding long boom poles and whatnot, but they couldn't boom to save their lives..

When I started 20 years ago, we were shooting 3 camera setups with NO cut in soap operas. Now we shoot 2 cameras and we cut, and still they can not do it!

I am trying the last few years to find a boom op that I can keep, I am trying to educate them with all my experience and knowledge (that didn't happen in the older generation), and still they underperform so bad, that they jeopardize my job. Now, I am trying to find someone in my generation, or a generation older than me, and I am talking with even 55-60 years old boom ops!

It is what it is. When they will be 40-45 years old, none of our opinion will matter because they will live in their own world. Older generations f@$€ed up big time anyway, that is why I have a small hope that this time it can get better, except the climate, and the A.I, and the Ebola, and the overpopulation, and the nuclear disasters..kind of scary, and I have kids of my own..but I still have some hope in humanity, maybe because of those said kids.

[JurijTurnsek]

9 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

Apparently over half of youngsters want to be youtubers/vloggers...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3617062/children-turn-backs-on-traditional-careers-in-favour-of-internet-fame-study-finds/

So presumably half the world will be youtubers and the other half will spend their time watching youtube...

Youngsters want to be something that looks like it is easy and fun to do (vlogging) and that can lead to big earning (for a few at the top). What this means is that they are after instant gratification (social media effect) and that they are in no way interested in the technical side of it. Give them a selfie stick, a smartphone and the easiest to use drone and their needs are met. This is going to hurt the imaging industry hard and they are stupid enough to market their product towards such shallow kids.

Just as previous generations were mesmerized by the success of a few elite athletes and musicians, billions will give it a try and thousand will make it their career. So, there a potential market of less than a million of dedicated cameras with vloggers if you ask me. Everyone else will just use their phone and give up within a year.

[drm]

2 hours ago, JurijTurnsek said:

Youngsters want to be something that looks like it is easy and fun to do (vlogging) and that can lead to big earning (for a few at the top). What this means is that they are after instant gratification (social media effect) and that they are in no way interested in the technical side of it. Give them a selfie stick, a smartphone and the easiest to use drone and their needs are met. This is going to hurt the imaging industry hard and they are stupid enough to market their product towards such shallow kids.

Just as previous generations were mesmerized by the success of a few elite athletes and musicians, billions will give it a try and thousand will make it their career. So, there a potential market of less than a million of dedicated cameras with vloggers if you ask me. Everyone else will just use their phone and give up within a year.

If the YouTube type are going to be the main drivers of camera demands and innovation, the DSLR / interchangeable lens camera markets are dead. Their needs for YouTube are so minimal, you could probably get by just fine with the Sony RX100 VII. You don't even need an interchangeable lens. You certainly don't need high quality options like 10bit color, 60fps, and 4k or higher resolutions. There are exceptions like: Linus Tech Tips actually runs a Red. But, they have big budgets and are a definite outlier. For most people, a low end cam (perhaps even like the Canon M50) would be just fine. 

By way of example, think about the webcam market, which is probably a much larger market. The top of the line Logitech Brio was launched at the start of 2017 for $200. Most people are fine with the Logitech 920/922 for $99. There is *very* little innovation in the webcam market, even though most built-in cameras in laptops are crap (like 720p crap). For the most part, people just don't care about the quality of their webcams. Most people don't care much about the quality of their photos either, which is why they use their phones rather than a dedicated camera.

[Kisaha]

This is a typical human antagonistic archetypical situation and I do not care if it is the stone age, or the nuclear age, we will always try to have the best stone (or obsidian), the best nuclear weapon, the best iPhone, or the best autonomous car, either we need it or not.

First of all, the number is 67%. That is a huge number. That is a huge number, 67% of humans, in 2050-2060 that translates to something like 7billions! Even 1% of those 7.000.000.000 are a lot!

To try to be competitive and overcome their antagonists, the easiest and fastest way is to beat them at the hardware level.

While skills and knowledge are very hard and slow to achieve, buying a better camera than the next guy (and a better sound kit) will be the first step for e-domination.

Sound is a good example of that. If you compare sound quality accessible to amateurs in 1979-1989-1999-2009-2019 you will see that now we have unimaginable features and sound quality for less money in the history of productions, and what I hated most from early youtube (and still..) is bad sound.

It was always the same, and it will be always the same story. When everyone uses a tool, the professionals have to use a better version of that tool, and then the amateurs becoming tools themselves, buying into things they do not understand and don't know how to use, like the dSLR revolution. Everyone bought a cheap, or not that cheap, dSLR with a kit lens, and since then and after a few hundrend clicks, are collecting dust in their closets.

[Andrew Reid]

10 hours ago, Kisaha said:

Black Mirror has several such episodes. 

Most of the younger people I meet in sets are seriously underperforming while overperforming in social media (taking selfies with the actors, loose focus all the time and checking their phones constantly). I am not even on social media, and they had super amazing photos holding long boom poles and whatnot, but they couldn't boom to save their lives..

When I started 20 years ago, we were shooting 3 camera setups with NO cut in soap operas. Now we shoot 2 cameras and we cut, and still they can not do it!

I am trying the last few years to find a boom op that I can keep, I am trying to educate them with all my experience and knowledge (that didn't happen in the older generation), and still they underperform so bad, that they jeopardize my job. Now, I am trying to find someone in my generation, or a generation older than me, and I am talking with even 55-60 years old boom ops!

It is what it is. When they will be 40-45 years old, none of our opinion will matter because they will live in their own world. Older generations f@$€ed up big time anyway, that is why I have a small hope that this time it can get better, except the climate, and the A.I, and the Ebola, and the overpopulation, and the nuclear disasters..kind of scary, and I have kids of my own..but I still have some hope in humanity, maybe because of those said kids.

At least we'll have some good new material for a sci-fi film soon.

4 hours ago, JurijTurnsek said:

Youngsters want to be something that looks like it is easy and fun to do (vlogging) and that can lead to big earning (for a few at the top). What this means is that they are after instant gratification (social media effect) and that they are in no way interested in the technical side of it. Give them a selfie stick, a smartphone and the easiest to use drone and their needs are met. This is going to hurt the imaging industry hard and they are stupid enough to market their product towards such shallow kids.

Just as previous generations were mesmerized by the success of a few elite athletes and musicians, billions will give it a try and thousand will make it their career. So, there a potential market of less than a million of dedicated cameras with vloggers if you ask me. Everyone else will just use their phone and give up within a year.

I agree.

Elite athletics is another subversive area. I'd wager that 80% of the next generation looking at teaching careers don't want to go into technical areas, they will want to get involved teaching sport, for the lifestyle hotness.

11 hours ago, Robert Collins said:

I am not optimistic. It seems to me that the whole social media - youtube/facebook etc - thing is 'one circular mind f**k'.

It seems that peoples actions are no longer driven by themselves but their perception of other peoples perception of them - the echo chamber of life.

IT seems an extremely efficient way of wasting time.

It's like in that other topic, the medium is the message. You're absolutely right it's one circular mind fuck alright.

When you have people's time and actions dominated by social media, people are then controlled effectively by a network of machines.

[Mokara]

16 hours ago, Kisaha said:

Black Mirror has several such episodes. 

Most of the younger people I meet in sets are seriously underperforming while overperforming in social media (taking selfies with the actors, loose focus all the time and checking their phones constantly). I am not even on social media, and they had super amazing photos holding long boom poles and whatnot, but they couldn't boom to save their lives..

When I started 20 years ago, we were shooting 3 camera setups with NO cut in soap operas. Now we shoot 2 cameras and we cut, and still they can not do it!

I am trying the last few years to find a boom op that I can keep, I am trying to educate them with all my experience and knowledge (that didn't happen in the older generation), and still they underperform so bad, that they jeopardize my job. Now, I am trying to find someone in my generation, or a generation older than me, and I am talking with even 55-60 years old boom ops!

It is what it is. When they will be 40-45 years old, none of our opinion will matter because they will live in their own world. Older generations f@$€ed up big time anyway, that is why I have a small hope that this time it can get better, except the climate, and the A.I, and the Ebola, and the overpopulation, and the nuclear disasters..kind of scary, and I have kids of my own..but I still have some hope in humanity, maybe because of those said kids.

Meet new young people then. Most I know are much more capable and mature than the ones I knew growing up. They get exposed to the greater world sooner these days and it does make a difference.

On 7/28/2019 at 7:59 PM, webrunner5 said:

Most people on here act like everyone in the world is like us. I bet "we" don't represent 0.5% of the people buying all this stuff from Canon, Sony, on and on. And I would bet in the last 5 years 50% of the Rest of the people have switched to Smartphones. And more and more will do so since these newer ones have multiple cameras in them. That was half the reason people didn't want to ditch the cheap DSLR was some kind of Tele lens. Now that stuff is here in Phones.

I have no clue how any of these company's down the road are going to sell their wares as they say. That is not counting the pressure say the Osmo Pocket, Osmo Action, GoPro has put on "real" cameras as of late. They are doomed I think. Then there is the PK4 for peanuts. Talk about pressure. If you pay 5995 for a new Canon 1DX mk III you are getting Really Screwed. I doubt it cost 6 times as much money to make a 1DX. They have used the same basic body for like 10 years. 30 Years if you go back to the EOS-1N RS film era.

Those companies don't need to market to everyone though, they only need to market to the people who have use for such things. Bruker for example does just fine, it is an 8 billion dollar company, but the equipment they make will not be used by 99.999% of the worlds population.

On 7/29/2019 at 7:06 AM, Kisaha said:

Bring it on! 15 hours work per week is my dream!

Humans are not supposed to work 10-12 hours per day (+ an hour or two go and come back). 

Here, all the TV jobs are 10-12 hours, and in some productions it is even more. Most (almost all) of them do not even pay overtime.

Everyone points out the negatives, but constructing machines to do the repetitive shitty jobs is a huge opportunity for the networked humanity to achieve great things (like explore other systems and colonize space e.t.c).

Do we really need people working at McDonalds and Walmart? Is this what Aristotle, DaVinci, Nietzsche, Sagan dreamed of humanity?

I say, bring in the robots, until they revolt, and kill all of us, of course...

Actually, they have evolved to work from sunrise to sunset, lol. In neolithic times life was a constant struggle to find enough food to survive. It is only in the last hundred years or so that people got a lot of free time. Before that free time was a luxury.

[Andrew Reid]

39 minutes ago, Mokara said:

Those companies don't need to market to everyone though, they only need to market to the people who have use for such things. Bruker for example does just fine, it is an 8 billion dollar company, but the equipment they make will not be used by 99.999% of the worlds population.

Well said!!

At the end of the day, it's pure greed driving the consumer market... for a company like Canon 8 billion is nowhere near enough. It's planetary conquest, empire building, constant growth and maniacal greed.

[DCFlorida]

I have noticed Canon doesn't care about nurturing up and coming photographers. Their "Explorers in Light" program only features pros who have been at it for years and don't need their help, whereas Sony is choosing ambassadors through their Alpha program which is allowing for new blood and enthusiasm. My husband and I recently bought the two best Canon DSLRs as well as underwater housings for them so we are locked in for a few years.  The rate of obsolescence in the camera market, as well as most electronics markets, is becoming exhausting to the average consumer.

[webrunner5]

I don't think there is as much obsolescence as we think. I believe the big camera company's artificially make it Seem like what you have is "outdated". There isn't a camera made in the last 5 to 6 years that isn't fully capable of making amazing photos and video for anyone with a bit of skill and desire.  There is hardly anyone that really has 4K TV's around the world. It is more hype than anything.

Used stuff now is a total bargain if you are smart and pick the right ones. 99% useful for 99% of the people in the world.

[Skip77]

Canon will bounce back.  

Market share can drop but Canon still produces quality products and beautiful images.  They have all the tech know how to pull anything off based on high end cine cameras and lenses. They do have to show the consumers some kinds of road map moving forward.  

How will they address the cine line, the low end consumer and the pro-consumer line ups. 

Today's cameras and video is vastly superior to gear that came out 5 years ago and the proof is the C100, Canon Ti and Andy A7 model from back then. Video specs have been pushed beyond what theses camera could do 5 years ago.  Lenses do have a long shelf life but there is a reason why cameras get retired and you can't buy them anymore. 

It's also crazy to think how dominant Canon could be if they would lead the way in providing up to date specs and innovation. 

Here's to Canon and them actually listening to what consumers want. 

[Avenger 2.0]

1 hour ago, Skip77 said:

Canon will bounce back.  

I'm sure they are here to stay (certainly with pro's). Their new RF lens line-up shows what they are best at. Just hope they also release some affordable lenses for the not-pro's ? Video features will always be a pain with Canon in their mirrorless or dslr. Don't see they changing much in the future.

[Ed_David]

I'm not expert at any of this, but would assume all semi-professional camera makers are taking a hit.  What is the performance with Sony, Leica, Panasonic, etc etc in their camera divisions?

As the iphone portrait mode gets better and better, this is most likely taking away people from canon rebels and the likes.

Next 10 years, god knows what happens with the dslr/mirrorless world.  That iphone portrait mode is probably good enough for 85% of people I would imagine, especially when the end result of photos these days aren't to be blown up.  Not even onto computer, but a 2 in instagram picture on a 720p cell phone that's no larger than 6 inches long.

and full disclosure, even I have been fooled by the iphone portrait mode.  

[Mattias Burling]

3 minutes ago, Ed_David said:

What is the performance with Sony, Leica, Panasonic, etc etc in their camera divisions?

Leica is still selling them faster than they can make them. Luxury is still selling well. The Swiss luxury watch industry just had their best year ever. 

[Ed_David]

2 hours ago, Mattias Burling said:

Leica is still selling them faster than they can make them. Luxury is still selling well. The Swiss luxury watch industry just had their best year ever. 

well with iphone sales slowing, and slow adoption of the more expensive brand items and a global recession/depression on the horizon, especially with the us/china trade war, brexit, and the collapse of the environment, and Moore's law, Leica sales may also be tapering off a bit, especially if rich little johnny finds his current leica is just fine and doesn't need to upgrade, especially when the end product is instagram.

I know andrew isn't a fan of canon's lack of innovation, but they did do dual pixel AF in the c300 which started the amazing autofocus for video game and their lens ISS technology is pretty unbelievable in that 70-200 II and III lens and they do value good skintones, so I hope they don't leave the camera game. 

So let's not dance on their grave  . And full disclaimer, I now own a c300 ii and a c700, nikon d600 (selling) also a sony a7 iii and blackmagic pocket (selling) and aaton xtr plus.

 

[wolf33d]

The new Kodak if they don't react quickly. Their new EOS M6 is rumored to have 4K30p only, when the XT3 has 4K60P and the new Sony APSC will have it for sure. Even basic consumers expect 4K60 now, which they have for years on their phones. 

They continue to be FAR behind whether on stills sensor performance or video specs. The EOS RX might be great, so was the 1DX, but at what price? That camera will not save the company. 

They need to release a APSC with XT3 specs and FF EOS R to compete with the A7RIV (on its way, let's see if the Dynamic Range exceed the smartphone-like DR of the horrible 5Ds) and more important a camera that does far better than the EOS R for not more money. 

[Mattias Burling]

32 minutes ago, Ed_David said:

well with iphone sales slowing, and slow adoption of the more expensive brand items and a global recession/depression on the horizon, especially with the us/china trade war, brexit, and the collapse of the environment, and Moore's law, Leica sales may also be tapering off a bit, especially if rich little johnny finds his current leica is just fine and doesn't need to upgrade, especially when the end product is instagram.

So far I haven't found any reports confirming your theory. In fact the opposite. Leica wasn't even hit very hard during the 2008 crisis.

And none of the Leica shooters I know is "rich" in the sense I suspect you where going for.