Photokina 2020 - victim of coronavirus?

[kaylee]

fwiw the chinese company making pins for the major wrestling figure podcast is back open so

[i wish i was joking] #WWWYKI

[IronFilm]

43 minutes ago, KnightsFan said:

Agree with what @OliKMIA said but wanted to be a little more cautious as well.

While the flu kills a lot more people total, its mortality rate is on the order of 0.05% in the US. That's a difference of 40x. Those numbers are the US flu rate vs. the primarily China coronavirus, so it's not apples to apples, but the coronavirus is an order of magnitude more deadly. The flu is global, the coronavirus has really only hit a single city so far, with a few isolated cases escaping.

The rate of spread is extraordinary. The SARS outbreak infected 8,000 people total over six months. This has hit 10x that in two months. And this is even with Wuhan being in complete lockdown with extraordinary measures undertaken to limit the spread. If a similar outbreak happens in New York, a similar lockdown could devastate the global economy.

40x more deadly than flu.....  but only IF you believe the figures coming from the Chinese government!

I'd take that with an extremely BIG grain of salt. 

For all we know, it might be many times worse. 

https://www.newsshooter.com/2020/03/01/will-nab-2020-be-cancelled-due-to-the-coronavirus/

[OliKMIA]

1 hour ago, KnightsFan said:

Agree with what @OliKMIA said but wanted to be a little more cautious as well.

While the flu kills a lot more people total, its mortality rate is on the order of 0.05% in the US. That's a difference of 40x. Those numbers are the US flu rate vs. the primarily China coronavirus, so it's not apples to apples, but the coronavirus is an order of magnitude more deadly. The flu is global, the coronavirus has really only hit a single city so far, with a few isolated cases escaping.

The rate of spread is extraordinary. The SARS outbreak infected 8,000 people total over six months. This has hit 10x that in two months. And this is even with Wuhan being in complete lockdown with extraordinary measures undertaken to limit the spread. If a similar outbreak happens in New York, a similar lockdown could devastate the global economy.

Also agree with that. On the other hand, the Flu is is a well known virus with available vaccine and organized disease management which also explains the low mortality rate. On the contrary it also justifies the containment measure taken against the Corona virus. If anything, the SARS was not very worrisome. It appears that the progression of the virus is now on the decreasing phase in China, thanks to the vigorous actions taken by the authorities over there... To be confirmed.

39 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

40x more deadly than flu.....  but only IF you believe the figures coming from the Chinese government!

I'd take that with an extremely BIG grain of salt. 

For all we know, it might be many times worse. 

https://www.newsshooter.com/2020/03/01/will-nab-2020-be-cancelled-due-to-the-coronavirus/

The Chinese government is not a model of transparency but they remember how bad the 2003 SARS situation was managed and all the health organizations agree that there is a huge improvement this time (albeit, not perfect). I don't really believe in massive cover up for two reasons:
1. The information always comes out, especially in an age of social media despite the digital great wall in China
2. But more importantly, the virus is now hitting strong democracies like South Korea and European nations. These countries won't be able to hide anything if bodies start to pile up in complete contradiction with official statements. So even is China lied, the mortality rate in the other countries will be public knowledge very soon.

According to public health specialists, the real challenge will come when poor countries will be impacted because they have very little resources to handle that and unlike Ebola, the world is already busy enough with domestic situations. To make matter worse, the limited supply of protective equipment and medicine coming out of China won't be prioritized to Africa or south Asia...

That's all for me. I'm not going to step any further in this discussion because I'm not a doctor or a virologist and my point of view is pointless beyond this general statement.

[IronFilm]

6 minutes ago, OliKMIA said:

I don't really believe in massive cover up for two reasons:
1. The information always comes out, especially in an age of social media despite the digital great wall in China
2. But more importantly, the virus is now hitting strong democracies like South Korea and European nations. These countries won't be able to hide anything if bodies start to pile up in total contradiction with official statements.

Have a read of this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/

If that doesn't make you start to wonder that just maybe the official government figures are highly suspect, then I guess there isn't enough evidence in the world for you to open your eyes. That's a pretty damn blatant example, staring right at you in the face. 

1) social media does indeed conflict with the "official" story. I live with someone from mainland china, so as a kiwi my social feed isn't the same as hers, and she'll be daily showing and telling me new news she's seeing. Which the Chinese censors are indeed trying hard to censor.

2) it is very early days for the coronavirus outside China, going to be interesting following that progression. Fingers crossed

[OliKMIA]

There is 0 evidence in this link above, just some random anonymous person posting a function on reddit without any explanation. After that, there is the usual non-sense talk from uneducated people over 900 messages.
This is not what I call "blatant example." Where is the data coming from? What are the variables used for this "model"? Who is the author? What's his/her credential? Did he/she published anything in the recognized scientific literature?
Unless, we get serious answers from these questions, this is pure internet garbage.

But this paper about the quadratic growth is actually interesting,  the methodology is described at the end with the warnings and current limitations
https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.03638
The author is qualified in Astrophysics, not much for virology and public health
https://www.nordita.org/~brandenb/

But at least, we agree on point #2. Time will tell for the situation outside China and we'll get a clearer picture very soon.

[IronFilm]

2 hours ago, OliKMIA said:

There is 0 evidence in this link above, just some random anonymous person posting a function on reddit without any explanation. After that, there is the usual non-sense talk from uneducated people over 900 messages.
This is not what I call "blatant example." Where is the data coming from? What are the variables used for this "model"? Who is the author? What's his/her credential? Did he/she published anything in the recognized scientific literature?
Unless, we get serious answers from these questions, this is pure internet garbage.

Did you not read that link at all?? 
The answers are all right there to your questions. 
As for who the person is, doesn't really matter as I don't need to indulge in an 'appeal to authority fallacy' to make this point. 
Because you can look up the data yourself (from WHO/China themselves, the officially reported numbers. Which is exactly why you should take them with a big grain of salt!!), then run the figures yourself and get exactly the same result as was shared in that chart. 

It really is not that hard to do at all! You don't need a degree in mathematics to do it or understand it. 

Being able to repeat the results yourself is far far more important than the author having some fancy pants credentials. If you think he made a mistake, then run the numbers yourself and show us the mistake he made. (hint: he didn't, if you repeated this you'd get the same fit)

Doesn't an R squared value of 0.9995 raise any question marks with you whatsoever? 

Even if you somehow skipped math at high school, just simply looking at its predictive power (he was spooky accurate!) should raise suspicions with you?

Did you read the ELI5 comment at least in that thread?

Quote

OP graphed reported figures from the Chinese government and found a spookily accurate fit to a curve, a fit that would be incredibly unlikely to be natural.

A relatively serious disease with fairly good containment COULD fit that curve over the long-haul, but would have a TON more noise and variation (spikes and plateaus) as logistical and medical countermeasures ramp up.

The released figures don’t have these natural variations. So they are QUITE suspicious.

OP then projected the curve into the future and for four days straight has predicted with UNCANNY accuracy the figures released by the Chinese government.

It is almost certain that the figures released by China are completely made up. And they definitely wouldn’t make up figures that made it appear worse than what’s happening, or even close to as bad as reality.

TLDR: China’s covering up something way worse than they’re reporting.

Wouldn't be the first (or last!) time the Chinese government have been caught making up data:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/15/chinese-government-may-have-falsified-organ-donation-numbers-study-says

This entire thread is worth a read:

https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1223887384892313600

 

 

[Video Hummus]

So this is all hearsay so take it with the required dose of salt...

A friend has some connections with the US CDC and they basically said that everybody is extremely worried about the scale of infections with covid-19. That’s it more of a “when” than an “if” there will be an outbreak in the US.

South Korea is a good indicator of how fast this virus spreads. They basically went from tens of cases to over 1,000 in less than two weeks so there is very little room for error in containment and that has then worried mostly due to the mass panic it can cause but also the enormous strain it puts on hospitals and the effort required to contain it.

Its basically a mad dash to warmer summer months with fingers crossed...

But seriously the best thing to do is wash your hands and avoid touching around your eyes and hands...basic cold and flu prevention.

[KnightsFan]

9 hours ago, OliKMIA said:

Also agree with that. On the other hand, the Flu is is a well known virus with available vaccine and organized disease management which also explains the low mortality rate. On the contrary it also justifies the containment measure taken against the Corona virus. If anything, the SARS was not very worrisome. It appears that the progression of the virus is now on the decreasing phase in China, thanks to the vigorous actions taken by the authorities over there... To be confirmed.

The containment was definitely justified. But it does put a worrying perspective on it: if we got this many cases with a locked down city, what would this be like if we took a more relaxed approach the way we do with the flu? And also, will Americans obey a lockdown the same way that the Chinese do? I think that we would have a more difficult time in many American cities convincing people to stop their lives for weeks in the interest of national health. We constantly tell people to stay home if they are sick, but people don't because they are scared of losing their job, or can't afford to lose a day of wages.

[OliKMIA]

5 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Did you not read that link at all??
Did you read the ELI5 comment at least in that thread?

Wouldn't be the first (or last!) time the Chinese government have been caught making up data:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/15/chinese-government-may-have-falsified-organ-donation-numbers-study-says

This entire thread is worth a read:

https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1223887384892313600

 

 

I spent 5 minutes on the few first posts looking for some sort of logic, background and credential but I found none. Therefore, I didn't waste my time reading 900 posts on reddit from anonymous sources and the conclusion from wacko ELI5 neither. Unless you can provide better source, which I tried to do before (but it didn't spark any interest I see), I'm not going to bother with borderline conspiracy theory. Yeah, I can run the number in Excel but facts and suspicions are two different things.
As for your twitter link... Who is this person? We don't know. But the short bio says enough "Fraud investigator preparing for the Elon Musk criminal trial." Of course, no real name, no website, nothing... So many experts on the internet!

I'm done with this conversation because it's leading nowhere.

[IronFilm]

2 hours ago, OliKMIA said:

I spent 5 minutes on the few first posts looking for some sort of logic, background and credential but I found none.

The very first posts. It is all there, the core facts:
1) using the data reported by WHO / the Chinese government themselves
2) R squared value of 0.9995
3) the predictions of the figures to be reported by WHO / China in the coming days (which all came true, bang on accurate predictions)

Those are the cold hard facts, can you get anything closer to a smoking gun unless Xi Jinping himself goes on live TV to say "yes, we faked our data"?

So that's the concrete evidence, of course beyond that we can speculate on the "why": why would they report false data, is the true data better or is it even worse? What do you think?

[basilyeo]

I'm in Singapore.

There was some panic buying a few weeks back but things have since returned to normal. The economic impact has already been felt - Plenty of events, concerts all cancelled or postponed. I personally had about SGD30K worth of projects cancelled, but there are some smaller projects coming in so I'm not entirely dead in the water.

I'm not sure if Broadcast Asia is still happening in June but it will surely be heavily impacted as there's usually a lot of manufacturers from China. HK Filmart has been pushed back to August from March, I was willing to brave the protests but certainly not the virus, so that's good. 

[Marcio Kabke Pinheiro]

There are a lot of comparisons about Flu and Covid-19; yeah, there are much more deaths in a year coused by the common flu. But remember that common flu have vaccines, it is a well known disease, have easy treatment and, more important, is circulating around for years and most of the people already have antibodies for it.

This is the fear with coronavirus: most of the people does not have any antibody to it, nor it have a vaccine, and it have a VERY fast spread rate. And since more countries are starting to have it spread, more likely your country will have it soon or later - and yes, probably every country will get it.

Here in Brazil was an good example: when only people coming from China were being monitored for coronavirus, we had no confirmed cases - because our economy sucks and not a lot of business people here are in China trading.  But since the Italian outbreak (a country that Brazilian visits a lot, for tourism and family ties), we had 2 confirmed and more then 200 suspicious cases. And it tends to grow - probably there are people with the virus in the 14 days incubation period coming from other countries that the outbreak was not still detected.

I think that the real tragedy will be when the virus reachs the African continent. Very little health  / sanitary resources there, and with the fast spread rate of the virus, probably will be a REAL epidemic there.

[Cinegain]

I'm waiting for conspiracy theorist to say it's all a ploy by governments to combat overpopulation. Though, that must already be out there, I'm just not looking for it.

[BTM_Pix]

1 hour ago, Cinegain said:

I'm waiting for conspiracy theorist to say it's all a ploy by governments to combat overpopulation. Though, that must already be out there, I'm just not looking for it.

No need to wait, the tinfoil was already in full effect on here over a week ago

 

 

[Cinegain]

Well, there ya go. 😂

[ntblowz]

Guess companies will have to push back due to supply issues

 

https://***URL removed***/articles/8598995705/coronavirus-what-effect-will-covid-19-have-on-the-photo-industry

 

[noone]

Time to start a thread..."Canon closes down five factories"   No?     Seriously,  I do not think this is all THAT serious as an illness (ok it IS bad) even though I am  now (just) over 60 and diabetic.     It seems to be much LESS fatal than many flu variants and many do not even really get sick (not to downplay it, many do).    I guess sooner or later we will all get it unless a vaccine comes fast.    I feel for the people who are going to lose money and jobs over this though...especially in tourism related jobs in the first instance and quickly to others after.   

Oh well, I just wish I had the money to produce a few thousand designer masks to flog 

[Jimmy G]

Based on the numbers being provided at this link...

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: COVID-19:

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

...as of this post writing: 89,068 Reported Cases, 3,046 Reported Deaths, simple math reveals yields a mortality rate of 3.4%.

Considering that diagnostic testing for this virus is limited globally, both the Reported Cases and, thus, knowable Reportable Deaths resulting from the virus are currently unknowable and therefore being way under-reported. A better understanding of the mortality rate will evolve as testing proliferates and the data pool expands with accurate reporting.

For the data junkies amongst us, here's an analysis of the European 1918–1919 influenza pandemic that infected an estimated 500,000,000 people and killed an estimated 50,000,000 people, a simple math mortality rate of 10%...

Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4634693/

...and a global historical data examination here...

History of 1918 Flu Pandemic | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm

 

Based on the first link's current COVID-19 dataset, we are nowhere near the proliferation rates as seen 102 years ago, nor are we anywhere near those mortality rates. With the exception of the data spike for February 13, daily Reported/Mortality rates are fairly constant and are neither growing linearly or exponentially.

Should those facts change I may raise my concern levels, however I'm currently dealing with this as a I do influenza season. There are a lot of pathogens and disease that can do us in, I choose not to live my life in fear...

List of human disease case fatality rates - Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

My college class for FCPX proceeds, I just scored a Zhiyun Smooth-4 for my iPhone, and my final video project will be due in May.

[leslie]

13 hours ago, BTM_Pix said:

No need to wait, the tinfoil was already in full effect on here over a week ago

 

 

thats the next video challenge then, document your best tinfoil hat / mask build

[Mokara]

On 3/1/2020 at 8:07 AM, Video Hummus said:

So this is all hearsay so take it with the required dose of salt...

A friend has some connections with the US CDC and they basically said that everybody is extremely worried about the scale of infections with covid-19. That’s it more of a “when” than an “if” there will be an outbreak in the US.

South Korea is a good indicator of how fast this virus spreads. They basically went from tens of cases to over 1,000 in less than two weeks so there is very little room for error in containment and that has then worried mostly due to the mass panic it can cause but also the enormous strain it puts on hospitals and the effort required to contain it.

Its basically a mad dash to warmer summer months with fingers crossed...

But seriously the best thing to do is wash your hands and avoid touching around your eyes and hands...basic cold and flu prevention.

It is still early days in the outbreak, the shit has not hit the fan yet, we still have a long way to go.

Summer is not going to help you. Things like the common cold and flu decrease in summer, but that is probably because people are not in such close contact during those months because of changes in social behavior.

To minimize your chances of infection (not everyone gets infected in these sorts of outbreaks) you depend on firewalls to protect you. Basically the fewer people everyone comes into contact with, the less the chance of spreading. There will be a dynamic between the number who are currently infect and the number who can still be infected. So, if you immunize people (either from a vaccine or from prior infection) then there are fewer people to infect. Eventually the virus becomes isolated and when there are no more new hosts readily available it dies off. So the sorts of things that you can do is not touch your face and wash your hands frequently (failure to do these precautions is what usually causes infection). Try to avoid spaces that are social gathering points. Avoid traveling if you can. Wearing gloves when you are out and about probably will help as well, since you can remove them when you get home and thereby avoid contaminating home surfaces through touch. Firewalls through personal behavior, through social behavior and if you are lucky the number of infected people to immune people will drop off enough that you can avoid infection entirely.