COVID19 Kibosh

[Emanuel]

53 minutes ago, Super8 said:

I noticed the link you posted but you don't comprehend what you pass along as information. I was posting about the person that said the corona virus would take out a million people.  You might want to pay attention to the post you're replying to.

I obviously paid attention to. Again, please don't tend to be condescending with the other side here.

We have a strong and healthy community. Yeah, I am not Andrew but I know each other enough almost for a decade now to not mind he reads that I do believe he concurs, because I am sure I know what he thinks on topic and wants to his home we all share.

People help each other complementing information as I did now with you. It's not important you had addressed it to someone else or not. It's the way we're used to do here in Andrew's home. Let's avoid the confrontational tone as much as possible.

[Super8]

10 minutes ago, John Matthews said:

You didn't read what I said. If COVID-19 caused 1 death and I said it might cause "less than 1 million," I'd be right. Only time will tell what happens. Do you agree with me or not? And do you have better info than extrapolating math? If you do, speak up! I'd love to know. Post it! Please!

I'm taking in info like everyone else.  You posted one MD's opinion on how bad it could get.

[John Matthews]

21 minutes ago, Super8 said:

I'm taking in info like everyone else.  You posted one MD's opinion on how bad it could get.

What is your point? What do you have to add to this conversation, please?

[Super8]

2 minutes ago, John Matthews said:

What is your point? What do you have to add to this conversation, please?

I added more information about where your graphic number came from.  I suspect more info that you didn't know about.  You saw a graphic on facebook and re-posted one person's opinion from a conference. That was not an official release from AHA so no reason for you to act like it was. You posted leaked opinion based news.

[John Matthews]

1 minute ago, Super8 said:

I added more information about where your graphic number came from.  I suspect more info that you didn't know about.  You saw a graphic on facebook and re-posted one person's opinion from a conference. That was not an official release from AHA so no reason for you to act like it was. You posted leaked opinion based news.

So your point is that I'm irresponsibly posting and sharing fear (based on a doctor's opinion) and you want to expose the fraud of who I am. Good for you. Now I understand why you have 131 posts, yet only 4 likes. Let's leave it at that. I'm done with you (but I'm sure you'll want the last word).

[FranciscoB]

23 hours ago, mercer said:

He is a piece of work. But as a word of advice. There is a tone, not specifically directed at you, but there is a tone in the left-leaning media reporting and in statements from the anti-Trump crowd that they'd like to see him fail on some level.

For instance, the media was more interested in his impeachment trial than covering the early spread of Covid-19. And as soon as that exercise in futility ended, the media moved onto how the Trump Administration failed with their early response to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Yes, there is a bias that looks at Trump and only sees what he does wrong, which is a lot! But do you remember the Obama years and Fox News? Everything was a tragedy from the "different" socialist communist tyrant president. It's both sides, it's not a left thing. And give me break, the U.S. doesn't have a left side of politics. It has a far right and right. 

[Super8]

12 minutes ago, John Matthews said:

So your point is that I'm irresponsibly posting and sharing fear (based on a doctor's opinion) and you want to expose the fraud of who I am. Good for you. Now I understand why you have 131 posts, yet only 4 likes. Let's leave it at that. I'm done with you (but I'm sure you'll want the last word).

I tried to respond and ask the source of you thinking 1 million will die from the corona virus.   You posted a graphic and I researched it.  That's it nothing more. 

I'll try to get my "like" count up for ya.

[Super8]

In the U.S total number of deaths are 87 and climbing 15 a day it seems.  This is not new cases or a number that should spike based on testing. 

Prayers for everyone around the world.

[mercer]

27 minutes ago, FranciscoB said:

Yes, there is a bias that looks at Trump and only sees what he does wrong, which is a lot! But do you remember the Obama years and Fox News? Everything was a tragedy from the "different" socialist communist tyrant president. It's both sides, it's not a left thing. And give me break, the U.S. doesn't have a left side of politics. It has a far right and right. 

As I said, in my original post, I did not comment in this thread to argue politics. But I am sorry, your viewpoint of America, Americans and the American media is a little too myopic to resemble reality. 

Like Trump, or not, when half the nation supports him, you cannot say that he's done a lot wrong. You just disagree with it... it doesn't mean it's wrong. It's just a different opinion.

And seriously, you're suggesting that an entire news organization didn't like President Obama because he is... "different." It is so simple and narrow minded to suggest that. Isn't it possible that a portion of the population just didn't agree with his policies and his race had nothing to do with it?

But you're right, it is from both sides. There is a media outlet for whatever side of the spectrum you subscribe to and in most cases it has to do with ratings.

This us versus them attitude about politics is so moronic. I prefer to believe that liberals and conservatives, democrats and republicans, libertarians and socialists all want the best, they just have different opinions on how to get there.

[KnightsFan]

3 hours ago, John Matthews said:

1) Perspective

 

(Not necessarily directed at you, John, just piggybacking off the nice graphic you posted!)

It's great to have perspective and realize that even in the worst case, the human race will continue and this likely won't be the worst health crisis in our species' history.

However, we're at just over 7,000 deaths today, and on Mar. 7 we were at 3500. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) That means doubling in 10 days, as has been posted before. If we continue on that exponential growth model, we will hit 200M deaths globally in 150 days--and it will be 400M in just 160 days. A vaccine is expected to take 12 to 18 months, which would be too late for humanity in this case.

Since flu numbers are often used in comparison, starting with 100 deaths in the US now, and doubling every 10 days, we would surpass a "historically bad year" of 61,000 flu deaths by mid-June. And then we'd pass the 1.25M car accident deaths in August.

The good news is that we know that we won't continue on this exponential growth model indefinitely (partly because if all the 70+ yr olds die, the mortality rate will drop), so the 200M deaths scenario in under a year is unlikely. Eventually it will taper off. But our actions now, before we are inundated and our hospitals full, determine whether we taper off the exponential growth sooner or later.

Let's all do our part, be safe, and help out our friends and neighbors where we can.

[FranciscoB]

36 minutes ago, mercer said:

As I said, in my original post, I did not comment in this thread to argue politics. But I am sorry, your viewpoint of America, Americans and the American media is a little too myopic to resemble reality. 

Like Trump, or not, when half the nation supports him, you cannot say that he's done a lot wrong. You just disagree with it... it doesn't mean it's wrong. It's just a different opinion.

And seriously, you're suggesting that an entire news organization didn't like President Obama because he is... "different." It is so simple and narrow minded to suggest that. Isn't it possible that a portion of the population just didn't agree with his policies and his race had nothing to do with it?

But you're right, it is from both sides. There is a media outlet for whatever side of the spectrum you subscribe to and in most cases it has to do with ratings.

This us versus them attitude about politics is so moronic. I prefer to believe that liberals and conservatives, democrats and republicans, libertarians and socialists all want the best, they just have different opinions on how to get there.

I'm not saying that everything Trump did was wrong simply because I don't agree with it. There are factual wrong decisions about climate change, about the coal industry, about the economic war with china and others that I don't agree with but don't benefit the majority of americans and the world. That's not a difference of opinion.

And sure, we all disagree on several topics, but that's part of a democratic society. 

Yes, I believe that race was an important aspect about the disagreements with Obama but not all of it. He was elected two times. But the birth certificate proof and the argument of Obama being a muslim and that "he doesn't love our country" retoric is pretty dificult to defend. 

I agree with you that the us vs them attitude is moronic. I consider myself "agnostic" when it comes to politics and the lack of ability to join both sides and come to an agreement or compromise seems to be going away, which is undemocratic.

[Mokara]

16 hours ago, Super8 said:

60,000 people die from the flu each year in the U.S.  So still think we wil have more deaths than the flu?

It is not 60000, that was the modeled estimate for 2018 (which was considered a bad year), most years the models generate numbers a lot lower than that. And remember those numbers are from a computer model, they are made up numbers, not confirmed cases. The only year where there was extensive testing was the 2009 pandemic, and when the pandemic finally ended 9 months later in 2010 there were confirmed 3433 deaths in the US and 13837 confirmed deaths worldwide. That was is the baseline from the last major pandemic that we can assess the current virus from.

We have only just gotten started on covid-19, so far there are 7961 confirmed deaths worldwide and 106 in the US. Infection rates in the US are currently increasing exponentially, it is essentially a runaway epidemic now. Most people will eventually get infected over the course of the next year or so. Those numbers are going to go way higher. The virus is going to be making people sick for the remainder of the year and probably into 2021.

[Mokara]

54 minutes ago, KnightsFan said:

(Not necessarily directed at you, John, just piggybacking off the nice graphic you posted!)

It's great to have perspective and realize that even in the worst case, the human race will continue and this likely won't be the worst health crisis in our species' history.

However, we're at just over 7,000 deaths today, and on Mar. 7 we were at 3500. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) That means doubling in 10 days, as has been posted before. If we continue on that exponential growth model, we will hit 200M deaths globally in 150 days--and it will be 400M in just 160 days. A vaccine is expected to take 12 to 18 months, which would be too late for humanity in this case.

Since flu numbers are often used in comparison, starting with 100 deaths in the US now, and doubling every 10 days, we would surpass a "historically bad year" of 61,000 flu deaths by mid-June. And then we'd pass the 1.25M car accident deaths in August.

The good news is that we know that we won't continue on this exponential growth model indefinitely (partly because if all the 70+ yr olds die, the mortality rate will drop), so the 200M deaths scenario in under a year is unlikely. Eventually it will taper off. But our actions now, before we are inundated and our hospitals full, determine whether we taper off the exponential growth sooner or later.

Let's all do our part, be safe, and help out our friends and neighbors where we can.

Those deaths are estimates though, they come from computer models. There is some debate about how accurate those models actually are. The only flu year there is extensive data to support anything is 2009, and the mortality rate then was notably lower than normal, even though it was a pandemic involving a novel strain of flu. And that probably reflects the shortcomings of the model rather than the severity of the outbreak itself.

At some point they will stop doing tests if too many people are hospitalized, so we may never know exactly how many people die as a result.

[Mokara]

2 hours ago, Super8 said:

In the U.S total number of deaths are 87 and climbing 15 a day it seems.  This is not new cases or a number that should spike based on testing. 

Prayers for everyone around the world.

I am going to quote you on this in a few weeks.

[fuzzynormal]

12 minutes ago, Mokara said:

At some point they will stop doing tests if too many people are hospitalized, so we may never know exactly how many people die as a result.

I think another thing that has flown under the radar a bit is that hospitals don't just stop trying to treat other diseases while COVID19 is garnering all the attention.  The question becomes how well an they do it?

An at-risk person who then gets the run-of-the-mill flu is now at a heightened amount of danger because health services are stretched way too thin.  So flu deaths can spike too.  When the dust settles and we look back at 2020,  COVID numbers might not be as high as we feared (let's hope) but meanwhile other numbers across the board could be rather depressing.

[Super8]

1 hour ago, KnightsFan said:

(Not necessarily directed at you, John, just piggybacking off the nice graphic you posted!)

It's great to have perspective and realize that even in the worst case, the human race will continue and this likely won't be the worst health crisis in our species' history.

However, we're at just over 7,000 deaths today, and on Mar. 7 we were at 3500. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) That means doubling in 10 days, as has been posted before. If we continue on that exponential growth model, we will hit 200M deaths globally in 150 days--and it will be 400M in just 160 days. A vaccine is expected to take 12 to 18 months, which would be too late for humanity in this case.

Since flu numbers are often used in comparison, starting with 100 deaths in the US now, and doubling every 10 days, we would surpass a "historically bad year" of 61,000 flu deaths by mid-June. And then we'd pass the 1.25M car accident deaths in August.

The good news is that we know that we won't continue on this exponential growth model indefinitely (partly because if all the 70+ yr olds die, the mortality rate will drop), so the 200M deaths scenario in under a year is unlikely. Eventually it will taper off. But our actions now, before we are inundated and our hospitals full, determine whether we taper off the exponential growth sooner or later.

Let's all do our part, be safe, and help out our friends and neighbors where we can.

And the good news is you're wrong like the last doom and gloom predictor from France.  China has 1.386 billion people and they have 198,091 cases and 7,961 deaths.  it took the U.S.3 months to get here.  China also has 108,403 active cases and 7,020 of those cases are serious or critical.  94% of the cases are mild.

Take the time to look at charts to see what numbers have increased, and what numbers from which countries have started to flatten out. 

 

[Mokara]

Oh...I see the great leader is now proclaiming that he knew it was going to be a pandemic all along.  Even after all the BS he has been spewing for the last week. Because, you know, he just MUST be right ALL of the time 🙄

Man, they need to get that clown out of there RIGHT NOW ☹️

[Super8]

4 minutes ago, Mokara said:

I am going to quote you on this in a few weeks.

Please quote the prayers for everyone.

I also would rather be right on the low number side. You can hope for the other.

[fuzzynormal]

Just now, Super8 said:

look at charts to see what numbers have increased, and what numbers from which countries have started to flatten out.

Interestingly, the nations with the lowest numbers also took the biggest SARS hit in 2003.  Those countries didn't mess around, knew what's at stake, and they're practically a flat-line on the charts.

[Mokara]

1 minute ago, fuzzynormal said:

I think another thing that has flown under the radar a bit is that hospitals don't just stop treating other diseases while COVID19 is garnering all the attention.

An at-risk person who then gets the run-of-the-mill flu is now at a heightened amount of danger because health services are stretched way too thin.  So flu deaths can spike too.  When the dust settles and we look back at 2020,  COVID numbers might not be as high as we feared (let's hope) but meanwhile other numbers across the board could be rather depressing.

Not just flu. The guy I work with is from China, from what he hears from his family back there at the height of the breakout when all of the hospitals were full, people were dieing from all sorts of other things as well simply because there was no space for them at the hospital.