How important will 4k be for online distribution in 3 years?

[miketurner]

Hi guys!

 

I have recently been hired to help produce an online fitness course next year, featuring someone somewhat known within the online fitness industry and they've been asking me today whether we should shoot in 4K and distribute in 4K.  Prior to this questioning, I was already battling internally with whether to shoot 4K or not, but had admittedly assumed we would master and distribute in 1080p.  Why?  Because most of these online courses seems to be in either 720p or 1080p.  Now, a couple salient points I would like to make.  Firstly, this will be a large course.. likely 12-15 hrs of edited content online.   Secondly, we won't start filming until June next year.  Release is preferably by Jan 2016.  

 

So, the question is... by Jan 2016, how widespread or expected will 4K be for online viewing?  And in 2-3 years after that?  Since we wouldn't want to redo the course in 4K any time soon.  

 

My main resistance at this point is working with so much 4K data.  I currently have roughly 32TB of space, but that's filling up rapidly already.  Oh I know... that's the price of working with 4K, but still.  

 

My answer to this is after contemplating as I write this message... whether we launch with 4K distribution or not, is not *too* important (at least from my current vantage), but, we probably should future proof this work by recording in 4K, so if 4K online streaming becomes the accepted "norm" online in 2 years that we can simply offer that.  

 

I'd appreciate any thoughts.. and if you're a psychic.. feel free to look into the crystal ball and let me know what you see in the next year!  :P

[Guest Ebrahim Saadawi]

As you said said we would need to be psychics to exactly know when 4K is going to be standard. People might embrace it tomorrow or 5-6 years from now.

If you have the power, all things being equal, just do it 4K now, that way you're prepared for both scenarios. Especially if the project is a long-term kind of coarse that can be consumed and bought years from now...

There is no definite 100% answer. If you do it in 1080p you'll probably be fine for the next few years, and if you do it in 4K it will be even better.

I depends on how much of a pain for you it will be to go for 4K.

[eoslover]

pretty certain that 4k will not be popular til 2016, we gonna stick to 1080p for a couple of years

[miketurner]

As you said said we would need to be psychics to exactly know when 4K is going to be standard. People might embrace it tomorrow or 5-6 years from now.

If you have the power, all things being equal, just do it 4K now, that way you're prepared for both scenarios. Especially if the project is a long-term kind of coarse that can be consumed and bought years from now...

There is no definite 100% answer. If you do it in 1080p you'll probably be fine for the next few years, and if you do it in 4K it will be even better.

I depends on how much of a pain for you it will be to go for 4K.

 

Hi Ebrahim!

 

Yes, pretty much echoed my own thoughts on this.  I think it's decided, I'll do 4K.  Why not?  I have the cameras, memory cards, editing station and well I'm lacking a bit in storage space.. but I'll have to man up and buy some more.  Part of the game.  

 

Thanks again! 

[miketurner]

pretty certain that 4k will not be popular til 2016, we gonna stick to 1080p for a couple of years

 

Right, but I won't be distributing this until 2016 and want it to remain relevant and be at a quality that people will/may start to expect more and more.  I know it's probably 2-3 years away that 4K is really expected by eveyone, but then again, I'm surprised at just how fast 4K has moved in the last six months alone.  I have friends whom have bought 4K TVs already. (I haven't even done that yet - was going to wait another couple years).  Also, the prices of 4K monitors has rapidly dropped.  That trend will obviously continue over the next 2-3 years.  :)

[Danyyyel]

If you take history of SD to HD after like 15 years most people of the world are still watching SD and 720p TV. Online system like youtube at 1080p is in truth more like 720p with the very low  bitrate etc. 4k tv will be with all of us within the next 3/5 years because TV manufacturers have only this to sell there TV because 1080p is already good enough for 99% of human beings. It will go the same way as 3D. As soon as oled TV prices comes closer to mass market prices, you will see how they will all jump at how deep the shadows are and very high contrast ratio (Since the denial of plasma TV, at least this will be a big advancement in image quality compared to the move between 1080p and 4k). They are just desperate to keep selling because we are so close to the limit of human perception that people won't just care as they won't be able to discern any difference and won't feel any need to upgrade.

 

But for distribution, people will still be watching 720p/1080i broadcast for a long long time. As for online with the actual infrastructure it will take a long long time to get the bandwidth and if they do it, it will be like youtube with very low bitrate content that won't be real 4k at all. It will just be for marketing sake.

 

Now if you have the equipment to do it in 4k and that it does not demand too much more effort and man hour to do, just do it. But one thing I have learn with experience is that you have to be very careful about long project. Because everything accumulates, 1 minutes here, 5 minutes there and you find yourself working twice the number of hours you have thought and quoted at the start. Another thing to consider is that very good HD scales very well to Uhd. You can do some test just film something in 4k and with a very good HD camera and then project them on one of these 4k tv and look at normal viewing distance if it makes a difference. You can even do some blind test with some of your friends who bought 4k tVs.

[noa]

What camera are you going to use to shoot this? Sony has it's own 50mbs 4K codec on the ax100 or twice that on the gh4. It's not that these codecs require that much space and harddrive space is cheap these days. I would shoot in 4K and deliver in 720p or 1080p depending on the client's expectations but you would future proof your work if you also keep a 4K master aside, when your client would demand 4K you don't need to upscale 1080p but just deliver the highest quality. If you have a camera that can do 4K I don't see a reason why to shoot 1080p unless you need 50p and your camera doesn't support it.

[miketurner]

If you take history of SD to HD after like 15 years most people of the world are still watching SD and 720p TV. Online system like youtube at 1080p is in truth more like 720p with the very low  bitrate etc. 4k tv will be with all of us within the next 3/5 years because TV manufacturers have only this to sell there TV because 1080p is already good enough for 99% of human beings. It will go the same way as 3D. As soon as oled TV prices comes closer to mass market prices, you will see how they will all jump at how deep the shadows are and very high contrast ratio (Since the denial of plasma TV, at least this will be a big advancement in image quality compared to the move between 1080p and 4k). They are just desperate to keep selling because we are so close to the limit of human perception that people won't just care as they won't be able to discern any difference and won't feel any need to upgrade.

 

I totally agree with what you've said here above.  

 

But for distribution, people will still be watching 720p/1080i broadcast for a long long time. As for online with the actual infrastructure it will take a long long time to get the bandwidth and if they do it, it will be like youtube with very low bitrate content that won't be real 4k at all. It will just be for marketing sake.

 

I agree with you here too, I just think for future proofing the work (it's a large project with lots of filming) that I will shoot in 4K since I have everything for it and keep as a master copy.  If in a couple years (or upon launch), offer the ability to stream 4K, then I have it.  :)

 

Now if you have the equipment to do it in 4k and that it does not demand too much more effort and man hour to do, just do it. But one thing I have learn with experience is that you have to be very careful about long project. Because everything accumulates, 1 minutes here, 5 minutes there and you find yourself working twice the number of hours you have thought and quoted at the start. Another thing to consider is that very good HD scales very well to Uhd. You can do some test just film something in 4k and with a very good HD camera and then project them on one of these 4k tv and look at normal viewing distance if it makes a difference. You can even do some blind test with some of your friends who bought 4k tVs.

 

Yeah I'll be doing some testing so I can see the difference.  And this is my first "BIG" project which will take place over months, so I appreciate your advice here.  

[miketurner]

What camera are you going to use to shoot this? Sony has it's own 50mbs 4K codec on the ax100 or twice that on the gh4. It's not that these codecs require that much space and harddrive space is cheap these days. I would shoot in 4K and deliver in 720p or 1080p depending on the client's expectations but you would future proof your work if you also keep a 4K master aside, when your client would demand 4K you don't need to upscale 1080p but just deliver the highest quality. If you have a camera that can do 4K I don't see a reason why to shoot 1080p unless you need 50p and your camera doesn't support it.

 

Hi Noa!  I am undecided on the camera and have the chance to change my mind since we won't start until around May/June next year.  But I'm considering either the A7S or GH4 or both right now.  And yes, after reading others thoughts and contemplating myself, I think I'll do 4K and just keep as a master. :)

[Axel]

 

I just think for future proofing the work (it's a large project with lots of filming) that I will shoot in 4K since I have everything for it and keep as a master copy.  If in a couple years (or upon launch), offer the ability to stream 4K, then I have it.   :)

 

The moment 4k has become standard is when ordinary people can distinguish it from HD, wouldn't you agree? Estimation vary, maybe it comes fast in the urban region, where there is fast internet and Netflix and the like have more or less replaced ordinary television.

 

The moment ordinary people became pixel peepers and can distinguish 4k from HD with their naked eyes, the con- and prosumer video that's currently on offer will prove to be sub standard (like HDV proved to be closer to DV-SD, in hindsight, it's hardly considered HD now). You probably have read about the bayer sensors. Also, as Danyyyel has mentioned, OLED TV technique is gonna be the next big thing and will probably be affordable for ordinary people by then. That's when everybody will see - because it's very easy to see - how 8-bit images look bad in comparison to 10-bit (or more), no matter if HD or UHD.

 

Future proof is, if anything, excellent craft and interesting content.