OPEN AI VIDEO TECH ONE YEAR LATER...

[BTM_Pix]

32 minutes ago, kye said:

I think we're a tad beyond sucking in your guy when someone pulls out their phone to take a snapshot.

I suspect you've fallen foul of the "y" being adjacent to the "t" on the keyboard there.

[IronFilm]

"I feel like I spent 20 years of my life swimming suddenly they let motorboats into the Olympics."

Quite the analogy! But an understandable feeling

 

1 hour ago, kye said:

There are many things that promote such things in that culture that are not present in other cultures, or are present to a much less significant degree.

And you don't think having easy to access free/perfect/immediate plastic surgery wouldn't also have a major impact upon culture? 

1 hour ago, kye said:

Another convenient subsample.

So? Most people are not making films every day! Most people are not even watching a movie every day. 

 But AI will undoubtedly be massively changing both how we make and how we consumer movies. 

1 hour ago, kye said:

If you're putting posing for photos or smiling into the lying category then I can tell you're either trolling or you're on some serious drugs.

My point is that:

1) people want to look their best in pics, thus they pose

2) culture changes, it was once not normal to smile in photos, but now it is 

1 hour ago, kye said:

An AI video is a video where:

• no pixel was ever directly recorded from real-life
• there is no way to go back to the source because there was unknowable amounts of training data and limited input data (these mysterious GoPros scattered around)
• there is no way to know how the training data was processed
• there is no way to know how the AI works

So what??

Most people can't even vaguely explain how a camera works. Does that stop them using cameras??? Nope!!

Heck, there is probably nobody on the planet who can explain in great detail all of how a camera works to take a photo. 

And certainly for the average casual consumer they do not care at all in the slightest that to them a camera is a totally mysterious and magical black box. 

  

56 minutes ago, BTM_Pix said:

I suspect you've fallen foul of the "y" being adjacent to the "t" on the keyboard there.

If people on this forum wish to suck on a guy, I won't be judging them for it. Let them live their lives freely!

[IronFilm]

 

Text is a painful way to describe the intricate composition of a scene, the entities within it, and their behaviors. Dope for making stock clips and AI memes though! And when just spitballing ideas. 

But I am excited about video-to-video, inpainting and 'connected video' capabilities of Sora vs. the text-to-video we've been seeing already. 

Here is a tweet showing an example of video to video results using OpenAI's Sora: 

Or blending two different videos together:

 

 

[mercer]

1 hour ago, BTM_Pix said:

I suspect you've fallen foul of the "y" being adjacent to the "t" on the keyboard there.

The new "cheese"

[mercer]

Somebody needs to give these OpenAI nerds a wedgie or a swirly and fast.

[JulioD]

12 hours ago, IronFilm said:

"Other than the biggest & game changing difference, how is this different?" 

Gamechanging?  We’re not there yet.  But it’s the same KIND of technological change media has been through many times.  It’s not a whole new game.

 

11 hours ago, IronFilm said:

How long until even "the director" gets replaced by AI??

But even if we still have that human role, we've still seen a collapse from an animated film needing dozens/hundreds/thousands of people employed to instead... just one job for the humans 

 

I don’t see it.  AI has so far for me failed miserably at making a compelling emotionally engaging image let alone STORY.  And that’s WITH humans inputting the prompts.

It’s not “intelligent”.  It’s good at finding patterns and guessing what YOU might type next.  But the data set is still FED by humans, both in prompts and in its training data.  So far the models training on themselves ends in a spiral of death.  

How is this not a fancy version of auto correct?  Why do you think it’s a simple leap to go to no human driving this at all?

It’s a new animation tool, capable of achieving things never before possible.  But it’s a tool. Its biggest appeal is to those who don’t favor creativity, but COST of production.  

So far it’s been a fancy demonstration of a technology that will affect some aspects of storytelling.  It’s a total long shot that this somehow replaces humans telling stories.  

 

[BenEricson]

On 2/17/2024 at 11:15 AM, Ty Harper said:

Sorry but anyone who's saying this looks sh*tty must not have seen the original Will Smith spaghetti one they had a year ago. THAT was sh*tty - this new one is no where near perfect, but sh*tty is just a ridiculous descriptor of something that is still developing. It is imo good enough for us to understand the implications for the art-based labor industry.

To be fair, that was an incredibly difficult video to try to generate... Would love to see their new attempt! We need an A/B to A/B.

I would imagine the cost for generating these types of videos to be quite costly. Somewhere between 200-1000 per video, no? This is an insane amount of compute power. 

[majoraxis]

I think we will find that those who struggle to complete their "great" movie ideas because of ADHD will be the ones who will be able to prompt and iterate their story ideas in ways that the rest of the world can't imagine for themselves and would like to experience.

If you have even been told:  it can't be done, stay on track, you are not paying attention, focus...focus...focus, we're out of time, we're out of money, I'm out of patience, you're driving me crazy, I can't work with you anymore, you're fired!  Then this technology is your rocket ship and I would like to be your passenger.

[KnightsFan]

If a tool that reduces the cost to produce audiovisual content by 50% isn't game changing, I don't know what is. And this will be a heckuva lot more than 50% reduction over the next 3 years (in my prediction).

 

6 hours ago, IronFilm said:

But I am excited about video-to-video, inpainting and 'connected video' capabilities of Sora vs. the text-to-video we've been seeing already. 

Same. I think my favorite use case for AI would be something like Wonder Studio, where I can shoot everything with a couple actors, and then replace them with animated characters. That would make something with animatable characters (for example, a Star Wars scene with lots of droids) really easy with a limited cast size. Or if I could go out in the wilderness and shoot with amazing real scenery, and perfectly composite people in later without motion tracking and chroma key artifacts.

[kye]

8 hours ago, BTM_Pix said:

I suspect you've fallen foul of the "y" being adjacent to the "t" on the keyboard there.

Man, of all the places to make a typo!

7 hours ago, IronFilm said:

"I feel like I spent 20 years of my life swimming suddenly they let motorboats into the Olympics."

Quite the analogy! But an understandable feeling

 

And you don't think having easy to access free/perfect/immediate plastic surgery wouldn't also have a major impact upon culture? 

So? Most people are not making films every day! Most people are not even watching a movie every day. 

 But AI will undoubtedly be massively changing both how we make and how we consumer movies. 

My point is that:

1) people want to look their best in pics, thus they pose

2) culture changes, it was once not normal to smile in photos, but now it is 

So what??

Most people can't even vaguely explain how a camera works. Does that stop them using cameras??? Nope!!

Heck, there is probably nobody on the planet who can explain in great detail all of how a camera works to take a photo. 

And certainly for the average casual consumer they do not care at all in the slightest that to them a camera is a totally mysterious and magical black box. 

  

If people on this forum wish to suck on a guy, I won't be judging them for it. Let them live their lives freely!

I think the fundamental principles still stand:

1) there is a reality and if you point a camera at it then it is a direct record of that reality and if you have an AI do a bunch of math it doesn't matter how it appears to be it will never be a direct record of that reality; and,

2) reality matters to people, and although they are willing to deviate from it by small amounts, and although people have different desires and tolerances for how large that amount is, there are limits to that distance; therefore:

AI will not replace the direct capture of reality in many contexts, and these contexts are a significant part of the moving images industry.

[IronFilm]

7 hours ago, JulioD said:

Gamechanging?  We’re not there yet.  But it’s the same KIND of technological change media has been through many times.  It’s not a whole new game.

This is a change as big as computers themselves arriving in the animation world, vs drawing it by hand. 

So yes, it's "just a change". Just like the arrival of the car was "just a change" from horse drawn buggies. 

But putting it like that, greatly understates the impact it will have. 

[JulioD]

1 hour ago, IronFilm said:

This is a change as big as computers themselves arriving in the animation world, vs drawing it by hand. 

Agree.  Similar level of change.

 

1 hour ago, IronFilm said:

So yes, it's "just a change". Just like the arrival of the car was "just a change" from horse drawn buggies. 

Different.

 

[BenEricson]

You're talking about insanely high compute power and $$$. 

https://www.wired.com/story/openai-sora-generative-ai-video/

[IronFilm]

2 hours ago, BenEricson said:

You're talking about insanely high compute power and $$$. 

The cost is mere pennies to the dollar compared to the high costs to hire a film crew to go out and film a clip. 

And for animation, it's changing the game from what used to in the past take months to now be done almost "instantly":

The other clips are also impressive, notably one asking for “an animated scene of a short fluffy monster kneeling beside a red candle,” along with some detailed stage directions (“wide eyes and open mouth”) and a description of the desired vibe of the clip. Sora produces a Pixar-esque creature that seems to have DNA from a Furby, a Gremlin, and Sully in Monsters, Inc. I remember when that latter film came out, Pixar made a huge deal of how difficult it was to create the ultra-complex texture of a monster’s fur as the creature moved around. It took all of Pixar’s wizards months to get it right. OpenAI’s new text-to-video machine … just did it.

(copied from your link you gave)

https://media.wired.com/clips/65cd6097640589f91cb00713/360p/pass/monster.mp4 

[PPNS]

42 minutes ago, IronFilm said:

I remember when that latter film came out, Pixar made a huge deal of how difficult it was to create the ultra-complex texture of a monster’s fur as the creature moved around. It took all of Pixar’s wizards months to get it right. OpenAI’s new text-to-video machine … just did it.

theyre marketing themselves in a way that makes the tech seem special to try and gain infinite investor money just like any other tech company does

[BenEricson]

 

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

The cost is mere pennies to the dollar compared to the high costs to hire a film crew to go out and film a clp. 

I mean we can really only speculate. Assuming this took an hour to render a 720p clip, with access to a bunch of GPUs and however many TBs of data. 1000USD - 10,000USD per render? This isn't Mid Journey.

[IronFilm]

4 hours ago, BenEricson said:

 

I mean we can really only speculate. Assuming this took an hour to render a 720p clip, with access to a bunch of GPUs and however many TBs of data. 1000USD - 10,000USD per render? This isn't Mid Journey.

1) you don't need TBs of data once the model is trained, the whole thing is probably just running in memory 

2) I suspect it's faster than an hour

3) but even if I do use your assumption of an hour, and I dunno how many you think "a bunch of GPUs" is, but let's say a couple of dozen? And what GPUs are you referring to?? Let's say the very best consumer GPU that money can buy, the RTX 4090!! Even a whole hour of running a couple of dozen of those GPUs is only going to cost me twelve bucks. Waaaay less than getting a film crew to film this clip, and far less than your estimate of "1000USD - 10,000USD per render". Maybe you want to up the stakes a bit, rather than using a top of the line consumer GPU for gaming such as a RTX 4090 we will use a purpose built data center GPU such as the NVIDIA A40? Sorry, bad news for you, thanks to economies of scale (with its purpose built nature) it's actually slightly cheaper for me to use two dozen A40 GPUs (a little less than eleven dollars per hour). Oh, and remember these are the costs for me (a nobody) to rent on demand GPUs. Of course the running costs for massive companies such as OpenAI would be far lower than it is for me to casually rent these!

[Tim Sewell]

Whatever the dollar cost, the cost in energy is horrifying (see Sam Altman's musings on the need for $7 trillion in energy source developments to cater to AI in wide use). And at the end of the day - for what? There will be some usage in various specialised fields but I don't even buy that this is going to replace stock video. AI can make increasingly realistic simulacrums of the world but it can't make anything artistically compelling because AI can't (and is unlikely to this century) understand art - not even to the extent of 'how do I make this actual real hotel attractive to human customers without adding things that don't exist?'.

I'd also note that the people most vociferously pushing the 'AI will take over the entire creative sector' paradigm are the same people (or types of people) who until very recently were proposing that crypto would replace currency and that NFTs were a really fabulous guaranteed way to make money.

[Tim Sewell]

And, oh yeah, forgot to say; a talented teenager with a handycam and a few good-looking pals will be able to create art infinitely more compelling than any AI can for far longer than any of us will still live on this planet.

[Ty Harper]

THR did an interview with Tyler Perry about all of this. Tyler is in the interesting position of being a director but also the owner of his own production company.

Great read!

====

The actor, filmmaker and studio owner is raising the alarm about the impact of the tech, saying, "I feel like everybody in the industry is running a hundred miles an hour to try and catch up, to try and put in guardrails."

BY KATIE KILKENNY

Over the past four years, Tyler Perry had been planning an $800 million expansion of his studio in Atlanta, which would have added 12 soundstages to the 330-acre property. Now, however, those ambitions are on hold — thanks to the rapid developments he’s seeing in the realm of artificial intelligence, including OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora, which debuted Feb. 15 and stunned observers with its cinematic video outputs.

“Being told that it can do all of these things is one thing, but actually seeing the capabilities, it was mind-blowing,” he said in an interview with The Hollywood Reporter on Thursday, noting that his productions might not have to travel to locations or build sets with the assistance of the technology.

Is Hollywood Sleepwalking Toward Strike Three?

As a business owner, Perry sees the opportunity in these developments, but as an employer, fellow actor and filmmaker, he also wants to raise the alarm. In an interview between shoots Thursday, Perry explained his concerns about the technology’s impact on labor and why he wants the industry to come together to tackle AI: “There’s got to be some sort of regulations in order to protect us. If not, I just don’t see how we survive."

After seeing Sora, what are your current feelings about how fast AI technology is moving and how it might affect entertainment in the near term?

I have been watching AI very closely and watching the advancements very closely. I was in the middle of, and have been planning for the last four years, about an $800 million expansion at the studio, which would’ve increased the backlot a tremendous size — we were adding 12 more soundstages. All of that is currently and indefinitely on hold because of Sora and what I’m seeing. I had gotten word over the last year or so that this was coming, but I had no idea until I saw recently the demonstrations of what it’s able to do. It’s shocking to me.

What in particular was shocking to you about its capabilities?

I no longer would have to travel to locations. If I wanted to be in the snow in Colorado, it’s text. If I wanted to write a scene on the moon, it’s text, and this AI can generate it like nothing. If I wanted to have two people in the living room in the mountains, I don’t have to build a set in the mountains, I don’t have to put a set on my lot. I can sit in an office and do this with a computer, which is shocking to me.

It makes me worry so much about all of the people in the business. Because as I was looking at it, I immediately started thinking of everyone in the industry who would be affected by this, including actors and grip and electric and transportation and sound and editors, and looking at this, I’m thinking this will touch every corner of our industry.

Are you currently implementing AI in any of your productions and/or do you plan to do so in the near future?

I just used AI in two films that are going to be announced soon. That kept me out of makeup for hours. In post and on set, I was able to use this AI technology to avoid ever having to sit through hours of aging makeup.

How are you thinking about approaching the threat that AI poses to certain job categories at your studio and on your productions?

Everything right now is so up in the air. It’s so malleable. The technology’s moving so quickly. I feel like everybody in the industry is running a hundred miles an hour to try and catch up, to try and put in guardrails and to try and put in safety belts to keep livelihoods afloat. But me, just like every other studio in town, we’re all trying to figure it all out. I think we’re all trying to find the answers as we go, and it’s changing every day — and it’s not just our industry, but it’s every industry that AI will be affecting, from accountants to architects. If you look at it across the world, how it’s changing so quickly, I’m hoping that there’s a whole government approach to help everyone be able to sustain.

How would you like the entertainment industry as a whole to confront this rapidly developing technology?

I absolutely think that it has to be an all hands on [deck], whole industry approach. It can’t be one union fighting every contract every two or three years. I think that it has to be everybody, all involved in how do we protect the future of our industry because it is changing rapidly, right before our eyes. I think of all of the construction workers and contractors who are not going to be employed because I’m not doing this next phase of the studio because there is no need to do it.

What’s your message for the industry at this point, as we’re watching this unfold?

I know each union is individual, and I know that unions have stood with each other in times of negotiation, but I think that this is a time for galvanizing one voice in motion to help save, protect the individuals of our industry.

As a studio owner, are you feeling any pressure to use AI at this point?

No. I’m absolutely not feeling any pressure to use it, but I’m definitely looking at the advantages and what it brings to the table. However, I can focus on the bottom line of my studio continuing to do extremely well and avoid the conversation, or we can jump in and have the conversation head-on to make sure that we’re protecting all the people that are coming up. So I’ve got two sides here to this thing. For me, I’m looking at my business and the bottom line, but I’m also very concerned about all the people that I have trained and bought up in this industry. I’m concerned about what will happen to them.

How do you think this convergence of the rapid development of AI and the current contraction in the industry is going to play out?

I think it’s going to be a major game-changer, because if you could spend a fraction of the cost to do a pilot that would’ve cost $15 [million], $20 million or even $35 million if you’re looking at HBO, of course the bottom line of those companies would be to go the route of lesser costs. So I am very, very concerned that in the near future, a lot of jobs are going to be lost. I really, really feel that very strongly.

Who needs to act? You’re speaking up about this, but who else should be speaking up and working on this?

I just hope that as people are embracing this technology and as companies are moving to reduce costs and save the bottom line, that there’ll be some sort of thought and some sort of compassion for humanity and the people that have worked in this industry and built careers and lives, that there’s some sort of thought for them. And I think the only way to move forward in this is to galvanize it as one voice, not only in Hollywood and in this industry, but also in Congress.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/tyler-perry-ai-alarm-1235833276/