OPEN AI VIDEO TECH ONE YEAR LATER...

[ghostwind]

1 hour ago, Ty Harper said:

You literally went out of your way to let us know you disagree with the way people are "obsessing" over these recent advances in AI. If that isn't a sign that you're bothered I'm not sure what is...

 

"out of my way" "let us" lol. I'm not bothered in the least; just interested to read how folks obsess over this.

[IronFilm]

Tom Antos just put out a video about Sora: 

 

 

 

12 hours ago, Mmmbeats said:

• Quick developing.  One month it's all fuzzy, the next month it's all smoothed out.  One month there are 11 fingers on each hand, a year later there are only 6.😅  In other words - it iterates fast.

AI photos have already got good enough, that it is no longer a useful method to count their fingers. Any good AI photos will always be sensibly 5 fingers each now. 

12 hours ago, Mmmbeats said:

• Unpredictable.  As even a tech-savvy person, it is really hard to predict what 'AI' (I don't like using that term) is going to be good at, and bad at - 🖐️!

It's funny how a decade ago we thought AI would take over all the boring drudgery in jobs that humans do, and we'd be left free to have fun fulfilling lives chasing our creative passions.

Ummm... seems that AI is taking the opposite approach! AI is coming after the creative jobs first. 

Getting cover with sh*t as a Plumber, or crawling in dirt under houses as an Electrician, that's the jobs that AI is leaving for us to do! 

12 hours ago, Mmmbeats said:

Example - I recently decided to really lean into doing 2.5d and true 3d animations from flat artworks as a client offering (for context, a lot of my clients are museums).  To really develop skills in this using tools like Cinema 4D, Projection 3D, DUIK, etc. will take a couple of years of learning as I go.  I very much doubt that AI will explode into use in that time, but certainly at some point just beyond that horizon I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a turnkey AI tool that offers very professional bespoke 3D animation from still images.  That's very up AI's street.

I'd say we're almost there already. If not already there! As in it's all technically possible right now, what's needed next is simply it to be more polished and an easier workflow. 

12 hours ago, Mmmbeats said:

Of the course the nature of unpredictability is that just as equally, none of this might happen.  But I think the main point to make is that the scale of the threat (to professional livelihoods) is so profound, that anybody just blithely ignoring it has their head in the sand to my reckoning.

Personally, I think I need to take more seriously my former IT career, and revive it back from the grave it has been sleeping in all these years. As I need a solid "Plan B" should demand for Production Sound Mixing slump to a mere small fraction of the need for it today. 

10 hours ago, Ty Harper said:

I def see anyone whose job revolves around script research/writing being impacted by this - so that includes producers in the news gathering field. So if you've got an EP, then a Senior Producer, then producers and then Associate Producers - I can see that being flattened out to maybe just a Senior and a host making up an entire team.

I can see the "team" being even further reduced. You don't need a Senior and a Host. One of them is enough! 

9 hours ago, ghostwind said:

There's a difference between ignoring it and obsessing about it like in this thread and in the news in general. Too much obsessing about the unknown is a waste of time.

Four pages of discussion in this thread is a rather small amount of "obsession", when you consider how much obsession we can do over some minor new gear release that takes our fancy. 

And there is no doubt whatsoever that AI is going to have a bigger impact upon all of our jobs than any new camera announcement will have this year. 

If anything, we're proportionally speaking not discussing this enough. 

9 hours ago, ghostwind said:

Be open about it, changes, educate yourself, but no need to panic and put things "on hold" because the "AI" monster is coming.

Tyler Perry (a media billionaire, a megastar in the media industry) disagrees with you. Putting on hold an $800M studio expansion (sure, there are other factors too. But "AI" is the headline reason):

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/tyler-perry-ai-alarm-1235833276/ 

9 hours ago, ghostwind said:

As an example, I read some folks talking about leaving this field and going into IT, and I found that a bit ironic, as a lot of those jobs will be automated pretty fast. To me that's panic, not rational thinking.

If AI is going to be implemented everywhere in our lives (films/microwave/car/sports/music/etc), then who do you think is going to be doing that work to implement it. 

The IT people. 

[IronFilm]

7 hours ago, Ty Harper said:

Is it ironic tho - or is it a sign of the sheer scale of changes coming to the labor market. But also, when you've got a mortgage and bills to pay at the end of the month - you tend to panic about tech advances like this. Some aren't experiencing this chewing the fat on a forum - I'm watching colleagues in the media world losing their jobs weekly. 

Weekly?? What are they losing their jobs because of 

 

6 hours ago, JulioD said:

The second one.  

They are barely keeping the doors open.  

Thats in LA, Atlanta has been a busier town for a few years but it’s a pretty interesting data point. 

Yikes, I thought you meant that. But damn, if volume is only a fifth of what it used to be even in the mecca of filmmaking, then that's a worrying factor about the industry as a whole indeed!  

Although yeah, LA/Hollywood isn't the dominant #1 place like it used to be, with the second tier (NYC, Atlanta, or even Europe etc) having more of the pie than they used to a few decades ago. 

 

[Ty Harper]

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Weekly?? What are they losing their jobs because of 

 

Feel free to take a gander below.

Keep in mind I work as a producer on a talk program that directly intersects with terrestrial radio/tv, podcasts, pop journalism and film. There's also funding for several acclaimed/high end BIPOC tv shows/upcoming docs here in Canada that have either not been renewed or were not greenlit bcuz these cuts were on the horizon. Point is this was all happening BEFORE this Open AI/Sora news hit.

https://apnews.com/article/canada-media-job-cuts-newscasts-bell-media-d02a5dbf200e86e333c227dbceecac68

https://www.cp24.com/news/bell-ends-some-ctv-newscasts-sells-radio-stations-in-media-shakeup-amid-layoffs-1.6761001

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cbc-radio-canada-layoffs-budget-1.7048530

https://www.billboard.com/business/business-news/pitchfork-layoffs-restructuring-under-gq-1235583802/

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/feb/21/buzzfeed-layoffs-complex-sale

https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/television/acclaimed-cbc-bet-drama-the-porter-will-not-receive-a-second-season/article_748effd1-c40b-5c2b-b3c9-1a6eb132b1f1.html

 

 

 

 

 

[kye]

3 minutes ago, Ty Harper said:

Point is this was all happening BEFORE this Open AI/Sora news hit.

What was the reasoning, if it was before AI?

Aftereffects of COVID?  or the changing media landscape with streaming etc?  Something else?

[Ty Harper]

22 minutes ago, kye said:

What was the reasoning, if it was before AI?

Aftereffects of COVID?  or the changing media landscape with streaming etc?  Something else?

I'm sure all of the above. Point is people in those realms of media were already on edge and then along comes Sora. But to be clear, many already felt AI had the power to do this - so Sora is just confirming it. 

[Ty Harper]

4 hours ago, IronFilm said:

I can see the "team" being even further reduced. You don't need a Senior and a Host. One of them is enough! 

Maybe none!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/robots-run-the-show-as-swiss-radio-station-tests-ai-voices-for-a-day-1.6374928

[Mmmbeats]

The 3D animation stuff looks the scariest.  Not my industry, but it looks like it's seriously coming to get that sector in the near future.  They are first.  The realism and uncanny valley issues are not so important.  It's a really technically demanding field, so this will smash down barriers.

Be interesting to see how people mitigate.  For what it's worth, I think there will still be plenty of stuff for people to develop expertise in, it's just going to be quite a different load of stuff.

[Ty Harper]

5 hours ago, Mmmbeats said:

For what it's worth, I think there will still be plenty of stuff for people to develop expertise in, it's just going to be quite a different load of stuff.

Yes I see that, but I can also see these types of jobs only being viable long enough until AI makes another leap and renders them obsolete. Pretty much a race to the bottom where the jobs that are paying/viable have little to do with being creative.

[Evgeniy85]

On 2/24/2024 at 10:09 PM, IronFilm said:

Tom Antos just put out a video about Sora: 

 

 

Jesus Christ these youtubers are insufferable! The thing hasn't even come out yet but it already destroyed stuff? Gets a click I guess. 

[JulioD]

Perverse. AI images over deliver in this situation.  
 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/willy-wonka-event-uk-chocolate-experience-meth-lab-1235837133/?fbclid=IwAR1S4lRs2eTLuenEEGro-pOVC1BNUteDcNJ_AQYMinJmgFe1GCRU49eNALI_aem_ASDqmkSsZecQEbJvnJb6b7eJ9ftjr6U3ZFS23kqlN2eNEXUKvv9sfDvgFIOAkrHGi74

[kye]

AI generated cartoon aired in China.

It's a 26 episode series of 7 minute episodes about classical Chinese poems, so is sort of a cultural education thing. 

It took 6 months to do using AI text-to-video and the studio that developed it released the series to coincide with the opening of their new AI studio.

 

[kye]

Meanwhile, wedding videographers are getting pinged for having audio that's too clean due to AI processing..  linked to timestamp:

How on earth did we get here....

[BTM_Pix]

4 hours ago, kye said:

Meanwhile, wedding videographers are getting pinged for having audio that's too clean due to AI processing..  linked to timestamp:

And yet here he is last month shilling a product that enables you to automatically edit your weddings using.....yep...AI.

I have to say that the use of AI to isolate the voice better in the clip he is criticising is a far better use of it than this editing one.

 

[IronFilm]

It's all over for YouTube camera reviewers:

 

[majoraxis]

On 2/29/2024 at 3:56 PM, IronFilm said:

It's all over for YouTube camera reviewers:

 

Looks like the reviewer has an extra finger on his right hand.

Elon is suing open AI for changing their mission from non-profit / open source to for-profit / closed source and to stop Microsoft from licensing AGI from OpenAI...

 

[IronFilm]

On 3/4/2024 at 11:10 PM, majoraxis said:

Looks like the reviewer has an extra finger on his right hand.

Yes, and a year ago that was a major issue for AI photos. But today it's trending down towards becoming more of a non-issue for AI photos. 

We'll see the same happen soon for AI video as well. 

 

[Danyyyel]

There was an interview from Marques Brownlee about when Sora will come out. And the developers said it would take some time. Now their are two reasons, one is that they don't want to release it before the november election, and they also said it was compute costly.

The last part is very very important to understand. All these cheap services about the wonderful AI, run on very big server farm. For now all these startups cost/profit we don't know. If OpenAi cost was 100, 200, 1000 USD per month, would it had been so successful. And thus is the question. Having one people asking for one video, it could be 10x ILM servers rendering that. So my guess this and all the AI thing as we see, are running on venture capital money and how much to ran them including video we don't know.

[Evgeniy85]

On 3/15/2024 at 4:19 PM, Danyyyel said:

The last part is very very important to understand. All these cheap services about the wonderful AI, run on very big server farm. For now all these startups cost/profit we don't know. If OpenAi cost was 100, 200, 1000 USD per month, would it had been so successful. And thus is the question. Having one people asking for one video, it could be 10x ILM servers rendering that. So my guess this and all the AI thing as we see, are running on venture capital money and how much to ran them including video we don't know.

Exactly. Most of these companies are working on the model "we will figure out how to make profits later" which may not be sustainable in the long run. 

[IronFilm]

The end is near:

https://petapixel.com/2024/04/16/the-trailer-for-the-worlds-first-fully-ai-generated-film-is-here/

 

 

On 3/16/2024 at 9:19 AM, Danyyyel said:

There was an interview from Marques Brownlee about when Sora will come out. And the developers said it would take some time. Now their are two reasons, one is that they don't want to release it before the november election, and they also said it was compute costly.

The last part is very very important to understand. All these cheap services about the wonderful AI, run on very big server farm. For now all these startups cost/profit we don't know. If OpenAi cost was 100, 200, 1000 USD per month, would it had been so successful. And thus is the question. Having one people asking for one video, it could be 10x ILM servers rendering that. So my guess this and all the AI thing as we see, are running on venture capital money and how much to ran them including video we don't know.

Kinda irrelevant. 

Even if prices jacked way up so that the price matches the costs, that's still going to be dirt cheap vs the price to make a film the traditional way. 

Plus you're just thinking about the costs today. 

What was the cost of a gaming machine to run Doom back in 1997?? 

Kinda pricey! $$$

What does it cost these days to run Doom? Next to nothing is the cost 

https://doomwiki.org/wiki/Can_it_run_Doom%3F