Is Panasonic rethinking high-end full frame mirrorless line-up?

[Andrew Reid]

The S1H Mark II, and the other new S1 cameras should be here by now. Interestingly the Leica SL3 has arrived already. This is a camera that is engineered by Panasonic with Leica, and very much Panasonic in terms of electronics and firmware. The S1R Mark II has not come along with it. Instead Panasonic have given us two lower-end cameras, the S5 Mark II and S9. EOSHD looks at what's going on in Osaka.

Read the full blog post:

https://www.eoshd.com/news/is-panasonic-rethinking-high-end-full-frame-mirrorless-line-up-the-missing-cameras-of-2023-24/

[Davide DB]

Everything except this:

Quote

The final scenario is that Panasonic is waiting for as long as possible to see how the market plays out and for new technology to differentiate themselves from both competitors, and their existing models. Might we see a big exciting leap? Could it help Panasonic that Canon, Sony and Nikon have all now shown their hand?

 

A camera design and production is a lengthy process. You don't redesign and produce a camera in six months and probably not even a year.

[sanveer]

I am guessing a few things are happening. Panasonic is trying to get rid of the old 25MP FF sensor inventry. Which is why the S9. It's a good camera for the price and sensor size, but it has some issues which Panasonic doesn't want in the next generation of FF sensor. 

Panasonic needs a New Sensor greater than 24MP and Way Less than 60MP (somewhere around 40MP if it wants 8k). That sensor would make it to most of Panasonic's FF Lineup. It has to be excellent for Video, and have Reasonably High Resolution for Photo. Rolling shutter shouldn't be too bad, and it needs a huge variety of frame rates and resolutions for video. My guess is, after Nikon's working with Sony, Panasonic too is trying to ensure it gets a custom sensor, with design and features almost exclusive to Panasonic. Also, it probably doesn’t want to have the exact same or similar models at Leica, so that the market is better spread out between the two.

[utisz1]

S1H Mark I is still the best camera I've ever used, I sold C70 and kept the Pana. It doesn't need to be replaced.

[Ninpo33]

56 minutes ago, sanveer said:

Panasonic needs a New Sensor greater than 24MP and Way Less than 60MP (somewhere around 40MP if it wants 8k). That sensor would make it to most of Panasonic's FF Lineup. It has to be excellent for Video, and have Reasonably High Resolution for Photo. Rolling shutter shouldn't be too bad, and it needs a huge variety of frame rates and resolutions for video. 

I agree completely. 

Also, a large portion of the camera buyers have become quite savvy. In the world of YouTube "reviews", Gerald Undone and forums such as this, the camera buyer is now paying closer attention. Marketing mistakes or camera firmware issues are now put under the microscope and brands have to be really careful to get it right.

Lumix has been on a nice little trajectory as of late and even with the S9 launch kerfuffle they have been gaining some nice marketshare with the S5ii/S5iix. Fixing a lot of the known issues people used to have with the brand and giving us more specs than we even asked for. We like Panasonic because they have been amazingly good to us over the years despite being the 4th or 5th tier down in popularity. Would the current low budget anamorphic trend even have happened without them? Wild move putting the various anamorphic IBIS modes and desqueeze into cheap consumer bodies when the FX3 doesn't even have open gate. Who would have thought open gate 6k would have been the feature the Gen Z crowd is so excited about for vertical crops? (sigh)

I'm hoping/praying they are just taking their time to get it right and making sure the S2h and S2R end up being super solid. 4k/60p with no crop is a big one for sure and even if we know 8k isn't necessary for this camera, marketing wise they might need to bring it. They have a unique opportunity to snatch a lot of the Sony shooters who are holding onto their A7siii and FX3 cameras who also have't had any reason to upgrade. A Sony A1 type flagship for less and with more features. 

I want a Sigma Fp Pro. A revamped BS1H or EVA 1 full frame type camera. Alexa LF micro. Hell, even bring back the video camera form factor. It's odd that they still sell 1" sensor camcorders but never stepped up to compete in the Canon c300 or Sony FX6 space?

Alas, they've taken long enough that even me, a loyal Lumix fan, GH3 hacker and 14 year loyalist, am actually on the fence about going Sony or Fuji to meet some of my needs this year.

Hurry up Lumix...!!!

 

[Andrew Reid]

1 hour ago, utisz1 said:

S1H Mark I is still the best camera I've ever used, I sold C70 and kept the Pana. It doesn't need to be replaced.

It is close to perfect and the image still stands up today as one of the best you can possibly get.

But it would be nice to have even a small update, like:

Less heavy, a bit smaller
Phase-detect AF
In-camera LUT feature
Stacked sensor for 4K/120p

[IronFilm]

Quote

Q4 2019 is now 3.5 years ago and the S1/S1R launch dates back almost 5 years ago now. This is a very lengthy gap, the kind of gap which makes you wonder whether Panasonic is committed to the high-end camera market.

I feel that in this "post peak camera" world then this length of time for a camera lifecycle could unfortunately be "the new normal".

Camera sales will never return to their former peaks. and progress has massively slowed down when you look at the improvements from one generation to the next. The leap from a Nikon D5 to Nikon D6 for instance is nowhere near as impressive as the leap from the Nikon D2 to a D3, or from that D3 to a D4. Camera performance has been plateauing. 

Arguably I'd say for most people camera performance (in terms of stills that is) hit the plateau with the era of the Nikon D7100. (which was released way back in February 2013! Heck, it could even be said that as far back as 2010 with the Nikon D7000 release we saw the "good enough" plateau being hit for the average camera consumer when it comes to stills performance)

Sure, stills camera performance did keep on improving, but from the perspective of the average camera consumer then a lot of these were deep into marginal gains that for many of them are irrelevant. (sure, over big time spans then all these marginal gains add up to being worthwhile. A 2010 camera vs a 2024 camera? Sure, a "big" improvement! But 2010 to 2013? Nahhhh. 2010 to 2016? Nah)

Was only the demand for improved video features, and the hype over mirrorless cameras, that hid the fact that stills camera performances were in a plateau and allowed sales to keep on driving forward (as sales are what's needed to compel manufacturers to keep on releasing new generations of cameras to sell). 

But now in 2024 we're seeing video performance in hybrid cameras hit that "good enough" plateau, and the transition over to mirrorless is complete (almost zero DSLR sales are still happening). 

What's left to keep on pushing sales forward to incentivize camera manufacturers to keep on pumping out quick updates to their camera generations? 

I feel it could be over for seeing quick camera refreshes. 

The only time we'll get again 2 or 3 year camera life cycles will be:

1) if it's extremely minor update, such as the Sony FS7 to the FS7mk2

2) or if it is a variation on a camera model that isn't actually a replacement generation at all (such as GH5 to GH5S)

3) or if a camera release is a total sales flop, and they need to push out fast a replacement model that fixes the previous generation's flaws (thus in a way, that previous generation "doesn't count" when it comes to considering the camera lifecycle)

Otherwise I think 4, 5, or 6 year (or even longer???) camera releases cycles are unfortunately now our "new normal". 

Another confounding factor is we've just gone through the covid era with worldwide lockdowns. For a lot of people they might regard those years as "not counting" at all, or only counting the covid years at a 50% discounted rate. Viewed like that, then maybe in the eyes of people at Panasonic the S1/S1R is only a couple of years into its lifecycle? 

So the very long wait for an update of the S1 series (i.e. the S1/S1R/S1H mk2) I don't see by itself as being any concern yet that Panasonic is going to abandon the high end full frame mirrorless segment. 

[IronFilm]

4 hours ago, Ninpo33 said:

Also, a large portion of the camera buyers have become quite savvy. In the world of YouTube "reviews", Gerald Undone and forums such as this, the camera buyer is now paying closer attention. Marketing mistakes or camera firmware issues are now put under the microscope and brands have to be really careful to get it right.

Yes, but I think it's not just educated camera buyers becoming even more educated, but also a massive drop off in the "uneducated casual buyers". 

People such as my sister who would have a decade ago casually purchased a Canon APS-C camera for fun. That market segment has collapsed. 

As why would she do that again now in 2024? She's got her Samsung S24 to take photos with, and she still has her old DSLR around if she wanted to use "a real camera" for whatever odd reason. 

So if you remove 95% of the uneducated casual buyers, and get the remaining educated buyers even more educated, then the average has gone up massively. And thus you've got vastly more discerning buyers now. 

 

4 hours ago, Ninpo33 said:

I want a Sigma Fp Pro. A revamped BS1H or EVA 1 full frame type camera. Alexa LF micro. Hell, even bring back the video camera form factor. It's odd that they still sell 1" sensor camcorders but never stepped up to compete in the Canon c300 or Sony FX6 space?

They tried. With the Varicam S35, Varicam LT, and EVA1. 

I too want to see a modern version of them for 2024!!

Sadly I suspect the best we can possibly hope for is a Panasonic S1Hmk2 & Panasonic BS2H

 

[MrSMW]

I suspect the reason that the entire original S line did not sell that well was for 2 reasons:

Size & weight.

None-PDAF AF, particularly for video.

That combined with more limited marketing compared with say Sony, especially on social media and YouTube = limited sales compared with comparable cameras.

But the S5II changed that and is a popular camera, at least in 'talking' circles.

What's happening now re. any future S'2' line...??

I have zero evidence and can only speculate but 'expect' to see something soon...

Perhaps not a 3 body line up as previously, but at least 2; a video-centric unit and a photo/hybrid-centric.

Maybe 3 again as in an; S2H, a S2 and an S2R?

The Leica SL3 hints at what any S2R could or should be surely?

Re. any S2H, personally, I'd like to see a 10% smaller and 10% lighter body, PDAF, uncropped 6k 50/60p, but beyond that, zero needs.

If it had internal ND, that would be great, or at least develop a drop in filter system for between the lens and body as some third party options do exist!

The latest line of NISI Athena primes offer this built into the lens and there is the Fusion system I have. All for manual focus only lenses, but I presume would all work with a LIDAR based AF set up?

6 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

In-camera LUT feature

Does it not have it?

Balls, might need to rethink my approach for the rest of this year then. I thought it had...

My S1H is with MPB right now (where they valued it incidentally +€145 more than I did!) and I have asked them to return it in light of me not keeping the S9. A bit of a hasty move on my part.

I thought I had used a baked in LUT feature on the S1H last year, but that must have been with the S5II then.

Damn...I think I will need to continue with the sale and pick up a third used S5II body then as baking in a LUT really is part of my workflow now.

 

[Ninpo33]

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

They tried. With the Varicam S35, Varicam LT, and EVA1. 

I too want to see a modern version of them for 2024!!

Sadly I suspect the best we can possibly hope for is a Panasonic S1Hmk2 & Panasonic BS2H

 

Well... Regular Varicam 35 was like $55k and the LT came along a little too late in the game and was still over $25k once you built it out. By then full frame was really catching on and the cameras went massively discounted really quickly. Down to $10k at the EOL. Alexa classic was even cheaper at the time to rent and many ops felt like the Varicam LT were hard to rig to gimbals etc... 

It's just wild to think that in 2024 we are still ok building out modular hybrid mirrorless cameras into these Frankenrigs and wanting things like built in ND and a proper EVF when my Panasonic AF100 had those in 2010. I mean, I love things modular and being able to creatively rig things as needed, and for personal taste but there's just something to be said for the speed and ease of use for dedicated buttons and not having to dig through menus while on a shoot. 

OK, what about a slightly bigger BS2H more like Canon C70 body but with everything we want à la carte. I want to have the XLR's, ND the EVF again but in a nice modular system that's less janky than the Sony FX3 top handle and more like the Sigma FPL add on EVF. So yeah, I guess an EVA 2 Full Frame 8k with that sensor they were developing. 

Yes please.

 

[IronFilm]

2 hours ago, MrSMW said:

I suspect the reason that the entire original S line did not sell that well was for 2 reasons:

For me I think the two big reasons L Mount struggled with market share was:

1) lacked the massive presence in the consumer market that Canon / Nikon / Sony had. Walk into any tiny photo store or even a generic electronics goods store in some modest sized town and you can likely find Canon / Nikon / Sony in stock. It's been like this for many years, with Canon / Nikon DSLRs being sold. Thus they could leverage a very strong retail network of connections when they launched their full frame mirrorless cameras. (and to a lesser extent this was true with Sony cameras, but Sony could also leverage their very strong consumer electronics retailer network. Panasonic laptops / headphones / bluetooth speakers / cellphones / etc are simply nowhere even closer to as popular as the Sony products are) 

2) late to the market. Everyone else already had a head start. 

Perhaps you could overcome one of these disadvantages? But both? Nope! Made it a near impossible task for Panasonic to crack the top three. 

1 hour ago, Ninpo33 said:

Well... Regular Varicam 35 was like $55k and the LT came along a little too late in the game and was still over $25k once you built it out. By then full frame was really catching on and the cameras went massively discounted really quickly. Down to $10k at the EOL. Alexa classic was even cheaper at the time to rent and many ops felt like the Varicam LT were hard to rig to gimbals etc... 

Probably the Varicam 35 was aimed to compared head to head against ARRI ALEXA. But ARRI was already established, and Panasonic couldn't crack that nut. So they released the Varicam LT, thinking that at least they can now win the mid market with it by releasing what was surely clearly "the best" mid market camera. 

But they missed the boat on that too, as the midmarket was hollowed out and non-existent, taken out from the low end pricing by the exceptionally popular Sony FS7. 

Thus why at the end Panasonic slashed the price of the Varicam LT to under $10K to put it in the same pricing ballpark as the FS7 to compete against it. But again, too late. That was locking the stable door after the horse had already bolted.  The FS7 was dominating, and people wouldn't want to risk considering anything else when every producer & their dog is asking for "an FS7 shooter". 

  

1 hour ago, Ninpo33 said:

It's just wild to think that in 2024 we are still ok building out modular hybrid mirrorless cameras into these Frankenrigs and wanting things like built in ND and a proper EVF when my Panasonic AF100 had those in 2010. I mean, I love things modular and being able to creatively rig things as needed, and for personal taste but there's just something to be said for the speed and ease of use for dedicated buttons and not having to dig through menus while on a shoot. 

A damn pity an "AF200" was never released by Panasonic. 

If they'd released either the DVX200 or the EVA1 with a MFT Mount then it could have been the "AF200" if they'd timed it right. (of course it's too late  now!)

  

1 hour ago, Ninpo33 said:

OK, what about a slightly bigger BS2H more like Canon C70 body but with everything we want à la carte. I want to have the XLR's, ND the EVF again but in a nice modular system that's less janky than the Sony FX3 top handle and more like the Sigma FPL add on EVF. So yeah, I guess an EVA 2 Full Frame 8k with that sensor they were developing. 

The BS2H / BGH2 needs to have a no delay SDI output! 

[Al Dolega]

Quote

 

Panasonic S1H: Q4 2019

Panasonic S1: Q3 2018

Panasonic S1R: Q3 2018

Q4 2019 is now 3.5 years ago and the S1/S1R launch dates back almost 5 years ago now.

 

Actually that'd be 4.75-ish and almost 6 years!

The wait for the next camera does seem to be getting a bit long. They really needed to do a 1-2 punch with the S5II/IIX followed fairly quickly with another model. I'm not sure it would have even needed to be the S1H successor next, it could have been the S1 or S1R replacement. Just something to keep momentum going, well something relatively substantial at least, as the S9 certainly wasn't it, that's for sure. Now it seems like people may not even care that much if that next camera comes late this year, or next year.

[Andrew Reid]

Yes over 4 and 5 years, that points to something quite wrong doesn't it?

Is Pana soft quitting on us? I sincerely hope not.

Also you will notice the SL3 has also quite an old off the shelf Sony sensor, same as A7R IV and Sigma Fp-L.

Certainly nothing as cutting edge as a Z6 or A1.

Where's the L2 partnership going exactly? Into the old parts bins for cheap?

[Ninpo33]

Are they taking their time with their own new 8k sensor? The specs sounded amazing back when you covered it @Andrew Reid

[Ninpo33]

12 hours ago, IronFilm said:

A damn pity an "AF200" was never released by Panasonic. 

If they'd released either the DVX200 or the EVA1 with a MFT Mount then it could have been the "AF200" if they'd timed it right. (of course it's too late  now!)

The BS2H / BGH2 needs to have a no delay SDI output! 

Agreed...!!! No more sluggish HDMI delay. I would love to actually be able to pull focus from a cheap monitor/recorder. At least the new EVF from Kinefinity is now out and is an option for cameras with SDI.

 https://evf.kinefinity.com/product/eagle-sdi-e-viewfinder-black/

After thinking more about this I went back to look at the EVA 1 used. Can be found for under $2,000 US now. Actually still a solid camera and I feel like a lot of people didn't really pay much attention to it when released.

Ed Prosser - does a great review of it and used it for a long time along his Komodo and Lumix S5. Same poor timing as the Varicam cameras we already discussed above. And even though larger than M43 sensor, Super 35 wasn't getting a lot of love in the mainstream when S1 full frame cameras were already coming out with better specs.

It's too bad Panasonic didn't think more like RED and have the ability to allow for sensor upgrades and a developed eco system. Imagine if you were able to bring your EVA 1 back to them in 2022 and have them put in the S1H sensor and give you the option of L mount. Apparently you could upgrade from EF to PL back then.

[Andrew Reid]

1 hour ago, Ninpo33 said:

Are they taking their time with their own new 8k sensor? The specs sounded amazing back when you covered it @Andrew Reid

Panasonic have their own Super 35mm 6K sensor but it's not the organic one.

https://na.industrial.panasonic.com/products/sensors/optical-photoelectric-sensors/lineup/image-sensors/series/71626/model/76817

They also manufactured the GH1/GH2 chip I believe before moving to Sony with the GH3.

Now Sony's manufacturing capabilities are so far ahead that it doesn't really make sense not to use their manufacturing process, and you can still design your own chip and spec it to a high degree.

With the sensor in the Alexa 35 being made by Onsemi, exceeding the spec of the proposed Panasonic organic sensor, it would make more sense to work with Omsemi if they were not to go Sony like everyone else, rather than continue to develop their own totally different tech. I could be wrong - let's see.

[Caleb Genheimer]

I talked to them at NAB. A successor to the S1H is coming. They were still somewhat in “intake mode,” aka “what would you want to see?” Type questions. 
 

I think they’re very aware that ANOTHER stills mirrorless camera in their lineup is just cannibalism. Cameras like the Komodo, ZCam, Kinefinity, FX6, and now Pyxis (same sensor btw,) have really shifted the target for flagship video models, and I suspect they may have realized the need to pivot. 
 

And I don’t think they’re exiting the market. They seemed very excited about the folding-in of the Varicam team into the LUMIX team. They said it’ll be 2-3yrs before any “fruits” of that change will show up. 

[Caleb Genheimer]

Of note, in no particular order, here’s what I put forth as worthy attributes for a S1H successor:

cinema box camera body

internal ND

faster sensor readout

fixed HDMI (and SDI) latency

DGO, 16-bit ADCs, or some other dynamic range improvement.

NO resolution increase

top-shelf OLPF

I intentionally mentioned the Alexa Mini and 35 as “make your small/budget version of that ethos.” 

[Andrew Reid]

I still have my S1H and am always pleasantly surprised by how well the image holds up vs the latest and greatest stuff (Z9, A1, etc.)

i.e. it has a better image entirely... especially in low light... Just not the same super fast sensor readout.

I think the OLPF helps give it a more natural look too.

Definitely an internal ND is needed and phase-detect AF in the S1H Mark II, but I hope to see eND not a mechanical one. FS5 is how long ago now?!

Call me insane but I'd like to see a "True RAW" 2.8K Cinema DNG full frame mode with option for light 3:1 compression, without that smooth processed look of ProRes RAW.

Today's RAW codecs look too similar to H.265.... Or maybe HEVC has improved a lot?!

It would be nice to get the size and weight down to Sony a1 level.

Stacked sensor for that nice 4K/120fps... maybe 2.8K at 240fps?

Not too bothered about 8K... I am sure Pana are in a dilemma about that too.

[IronFilm]

On 8/2/2024 at 8:11 AM, Ninpo33 said:

It's too bad Panasonic didn't think more like RED and have the ability to allow for sensor upgrades and a developed eco system. Imagine if you were able to bring your EVA 1 back to them in 2022 and have them put in the S1H sensor and give you the option of L mount.

RED made these grand promises of making "Obsolescence Obsolete" but the hard reality is often the upgrades were not truly worth it, the cost savings of paying for a very expensive sensor upgrade vs what you'd get from selling your perfectly fine working camera then re-buying the new one with the latest sensor. 

On 8/2/2024 at 8:11 AM, Ninpo33 said:

Apparently you could upgrade from EF to PL back then.

You still can swap out the EF Mount for PL Mount on an EVA1 if you wish, you the user could do it yourself.

On 8/2/2024 at 1:58 PM, Caleb Genheimer said:

I intentionally mentioned the Alexa Mini and 35 as “make your small/budget version of that ethos.” 

Yes, but with a few tweaks, such as having an operator side menus such as the F5/F55 cameras, not on the AC side like the the ARRI 35 (or even worse, none at all like the Mini!!).