Is Panasonic rethinking high-end full frame mirrorless line-up?

[Andrew Reid]

4 hours ago, Davide DB said:

 

These are the hard numbers. 260K cameras of all types. The next in the list went out of business years ago... long life to blenders, electric toothbrushes and vacuum cleaners!

Number of cameras sold worldwide in 2023:

1. Canon … 3.34 million units (46.5%)
2. Sony … 2 million units (27.9%)
3. Nikon … 810,000 units (11.3%)
4. Fujifilm … 430,000 units (6.0%)
5. Panasonic … 260,000 units (3.6%)
6. OM Digital … 180,000 units (2.5%)
7. Ricoh Imaging … 60,000 units (0.8%)

 

Wow... the buying public really are not rewarding the innovation shown by Panasonic and Fuji judging by those numbers. You wonder how sustainable 260k is for Panasonic, as 3.6% is just pathetic for a company that size.

What were Samsung on before the exit? Olympus?

OM are doing very badly considering the size of a system they inherited, many loyal users.

Canon, what can I say - they just don't deserve to be that far ahead when there are so many better options behind from Sony, Nikon and Fuji. People... their habits die hard don't they. Makes me think they rushed out the original EOS R just to bind people into the RF lenses early.

[Andrew Reid]

BTW do you have an URL for the figures?

[eatstoomuchjam]

Keep in mind that those numbers are for "cameras" and not for MILC.  Like I've heard that the Canon V10 is is weirdly popular in some regions.  What's less clear is whether that's all digital or not - I've heard that Instax sells crazy well, but I've not heard numbers associated with that.

[Al Dolega]

The S5 must have continued to sell well enough past the S5ii/X release that they want to keep it in the lineup, I imagine the new model name has more to do with part availability. If it's only an EVF upgrade, the original EVF panel is probably out of production now, remember the S5 came out 4 years ago, who knows how old that EVF already was at that point.

You can't just make the new EVF a running change to the S5 model, you'd have people bothering dealers to check serial numbers to figure out which stock has the new EVF, and there are certainly code differences for running the new panel so you need a separate firmware. So you're stuck with making the update technically a different model number and SKU just to keep things straight.

Sony did the same thing with the A7RIIIa, it was an older model at the time and just had an updated LCD screen, I don't recall anyone getting as upset over that as they seem over the S5D. Which is of course just due to frustration with the wait for the S1Hii.

Firmware update is probably just the app/LUT stuff from the S9 for the S5ii/X. Hopefully more, maybe more AF tweaks. The pancake zoom should have been out at the same time as the S9, not sure how Panny got that whole release so wrong.

[KnightsFan]

I wonder if the main issue that Panasonic faces now is that they simply don't have access to a new sensor that exceeds the one they've been using, at an affordable price. There's only so much you can do if your sensor supplier doesn't have a new model. Remember that the current 24 MP sensor is used by many companies, and is really good. There are very few features that would get me to upgrade from an S5 that don't involve a new sensor (such as 32 bit audio or a decent app)--and they are so niche to small-crew videographers, that the market must be minuscule.

The market share numbers are really a shame. Panasonic killed it with the GH and S series feature sets for a long time. I wonder what percent of sales are from people who do basic research like available lenses, upgrade paths, etc. As @Phil A, lack of lenses is a big downside for L mount for enthusiasts--but what percent of buyers ever get more than the kit lens? How about more than 2 lenses? What percent think, "L mount has no lenses" but never buy more than 2 lenses anyway? I really have no idea, I just wonder the true impact.

There is some hope on that front, though. Sigma's lenses are wildly good for their prices. And with Samyang joining in, there might be more low end lenses in the next few years.

[MrSMW]

The single biggest problem IMO with LUMIX is they just don’t make any hype off their own backs.

Any hype that does exist comes from a handful of vocal users.

Just one example is the Olympics.

Every Olympics do ‘we’ really need a new camera?

Probably not, but how much do the likes of Nikon and Canon hype it?

What hype re. anything is there ever from LUMIX?

Just like shit quality pictures etc on social media that we are talking about on another thread, to 99% of people, the quality isn’t the thing.

How popular something is perceived to be is.

The more popular something is, the ‘better’.

It’s a popularity contest. They need to get this into their thick skulls.

And even if they do have something coming, it’s possibly too late now because whilst the product might be A grade, there’s no hype! 😏

[ND64]

6 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

People... their habits die hard don't they. Makes me think they rushed out the original EOS R just to bind people into the RF lenses early.

And still selling EF-S at a loss

[Thpriest]

12 hours ago, Phil A said:

Where I live, the S5 II came out for 2450 EUR equivalent at today's exchange rate... and since a month, with the current discount, it sells new for 1299 EUR.

To be honest, as a former Product Manager, you don't give nearly 50% discount because your product is doing amazing. So hard to say how much of a success it was.

I still believe the weakness is the lens eco system of L mount for a lot of people.

Maybe you are right. The offers here in Spain are very good as well. For example I could pick up a S5mk2 with a Lumix 85 1.8 and a Sigma 16-28 2.8 for 2614€. Incredible value but maybe a sign that all is not well.

[MrSMW]

10 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

Wow... the buying public really are not rewarding the innovation shown by Panasonic and Fuji judging by those numbers. You wonder how sustainable 260k is for Panasonic, as 3.6% is just pathetic for a company that size.

 I suspect it is because Canon & Nikon are THE established camera names.

Sony is just everywhere.

Fuji is more the 'photo enthusiasts' brand, ie, not so much folks who buy a camera just because they think they need or want a camera (because they buy CaNikon and these days, Sony), but the folks who are actually interested in photography.

LUMIX though, as I have already ranted (yet remained brand loyal for 3 years now) just are not on the radar. It's like they live in some kind of bubble isolated from what is going on in the rest of the world...

[MrSMW]

I've just come back from a long dog walk mulling all of this over and come to the same conclusion that I have had for some time and that is I would like and hope LUMIX do something substantial, whether it'a announced today (unlikely it seems now) or in 3-6 months, but it doesn't really bother me if it's never.

I just don't need to make any significant changes to my system other than for next season, I am almost certainly going to switch out my Sigma 28-70 for the new 28-105 because I feel I am lacking a bit at that longer end.

On the stills front, ideally, I'd like to at some point bring it all back into one system; L Mount, but if there is not going to be any genuine successor to the S1R or S1H, I'm probably going to pick up a ZV-E1 as a secondary/slash back up stills camera, primarily for it's low light capability.

But I could live with...and have been living without any of the above most of this season and it just works so no actual real need.

I would not like to see LUMIX pull the plug and just die however.

Regardless, I'm not going to simply dump everything and jump ship because as I keep saying, for the video side of my needs, L Mount does it best.

[Davide DB]

11 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

BTW do you have an URL for the figures?

 

https://www.43rumors.com/nikkei-published-the-worldwide-market-share-2023-panasonic-and-om-digital-on-5th-and-6th-spot/

 

[Al Dolega]

6 hours ago, KnightsFan said:

I wonder if the main issue that Panasonic faces now is that they simply don't have access to a new sensor that exceeds the one they've been using, at an affordable price. There's only so much you can do if your sensor supplier doesn't have a new model. Remember that the current 24 MP sensor is used by many companies, and is really good.

Yes that could definitely be an issue. Sony isn't the only option, for instance the 47MP S1R sensor was from someone else I believe; but it seems Sony is the most realistic choice. Their pricing is probably better than other suppliers because they do so much volume, but if they aren't allowing the existing 24MP Z6iii sensor or whatever will be in the A7v to be sold to anyone else yet, and the old rusty-trusty IMX410 is the only other thing they have available, Panasonic might be in a very tough spot.

6 hours ago, KnightsFan said:

As @Phil A, lack of lenses is a big downside for L mount for enthusiasts--but what percent of buyers ever get more than the kit lens? How about more than 2 lenses? What percent think, "L mount has no lenses" but never buy more than 2 lenses anyway? I really have no idea, I just wonder the true impact.

There is some hope on that front, though. Sigma's lenses are wildly good for their prices. And with Samyang joining in, there might be more low end lenses in the next few years.

I dunno, when you narrow the scope a bit to lenses that mortals need and can afford (no superteles, no exotic zooms, no super-high-end primes, etc), the RF mount has a fairly limited selection too, and that doesn't seem to hurt Canon much. I think it's mostly name recognition (as a camera brand, not for toasters) and familiarity that hurts Panasonic. We spend a lot of money on this stuff and for many people that makes them less logical and more conservative in their evaluation of the non-big-3 brands.

[Thpriest]

So when is the announcement happening?

[ArashM]

It already happened.... ( WTF Lumix ????)

Honestly not sure what's going on with Lumix.

[Thpriest]

I think the problem might actually be ours rather than Lumix's. If we listen to all these ridiculous rumours from the Alpine verandah and other such places  then of course we'll be disappointed. It seems there was no hype from Lumix as this was a pretty straight forward announcement. It included a classic Lumix strong point, up dating firmware to existing cameras as well as formally introducing a lens they had said would come. Nothing wrong with that as it seems they never hyped up something big.

Still, we really could do with reliable info as to where the Lumix S line is going. They actually have some pretty good You Tubers who use and promote the brand without going overboard. They should start to feed them some solid info.

[Andrew Reid]

The thing is, this was the last chance for 2024 to do something.

Which means heading into 2025 there is not an update to 3 important 2018 cameras.

That is quitting.

[newfoundmass]

I think Lumix is damned if they do, damned if they don't. I think we only have to look back to the GH6 to see why they may be holding back. Just months after releasing it they then released the G9 II with PDAF. Within a year they'd go on to release a GH7 with PDAF. With hindsight it feels as though the GH6 was rushed out.

I think Panasonic might be in a similar situation with their higher end offerings.

I hope that Lumix works towards improving their marketing and becoming more transparent with the photo/video community. When you're that far behind the other companies there really isn't a reason not to be. Even if you cannot be specific, letting it be known that you're not abandoning higher end users would probably help. 

[Ninpo33]

16 hours ago, newfoundmass said:

I hope that Lumix works towards improving their marketing and becoming more transparent with the photo/video community. When you're that far behind the other companies there really isn't a reason not to be. Even if you cannot be specific, letting it be known that you're not abandoning higher end users would probably help. 

I agree. They have a real opportunity here to listen to the makers and continue to give us the specs we’re after. LUMIX has always given us so many features for the price and supported cinema features early on. Even maybe forcing some of the other brands to offer things they wouldn’t have. If they doubled down on that and started being more transparent they could foster a real creative community around their products that would spread to consumers at large. The Sony products are sterile and efficient tools but overpriced and lacking a lot. There’s no reason why LUMIX couldn’t have put out an FX3 and FX30 and dominated like the days of the DVX100. But it’s all about marketing and a plan and  creating more around the brand. They are so close…

[newfoundmass]

We all, myself included, were hounding Lumix about the GH6. Their silence was deafening at the time. Eventually what they released was a pretty decent camera, but one that also simultaneously left many of us underwhelmed. Then a few months later the G9 II comes out with PDAF. It was terribly confusing for users and, in many ways, self-sabotaged their own flagship camera.

Was the GH6 rushed out to be a stop gap because the community was pressuring them so much? I don't know, but it kind of looks like that with hindsight. It would also kind of explain why they were content with not fixing some of the ghosting issues that people had, which was not a typical response from a company that has very much been attentive to users and known for improving their cameras even years after their release.

If that was what happened it could've been avoided with more communication. Laying out a road map would've saved them from releasing a camera that would be overshadowed almost immediately and made almost irrelevant within a year. People just wanted to know what the future held, whether they should stick with Lumix or look towards a different system. 

The other companies don't have to convince people that they will be around for the long haul. Lumix does. Lumix also needs to increase their market share. The way to do that is to collaborate with users (and, I hate to admit it, try to win over the influencers) and be more transparent. That includes telling people that follow ups to the S1 lineup is in the pipeline instead of just absolute silence.

[John Matthews]

I'm no expert, but I can clearly see some avenues where Lumix has chosen to put their energy:

• PDAF (The AF has seen crazy amounts of innovation in only 20 months)
• Processing (Computational features like Live Composite mode and Hybrid Zoom)
• Tools (In many cases, these are another level above the competition, especially for anamorphic)

Their approach seems like one for the long term, with above-the-neck implementations that others don’t have. Now, they need to give us a body that includes a slightly more modern sensor—not even the latest and greatest (though that would be welcome). Again, they’re releasing firmware that includes NEW features for old cameras. That should be celebrated. Give us consistency and reliability, not just the checkboxes that say '4K 120fps 10bit 4:2:2 with AF and no crop.' For my usage, as long as the focus is on 24fps and image quality with tons of tools, that’s money better spent.