Sony E and Nikon Z are the winning mounts... Rest should beware!

[Andrew Reid]

So much good stuff for Sony FE at the moment... Tamron with the 20-40 2.8 and 35-150mm f2 monstrosity, Sony's own lenses (GM) expensive but bloody good, and the low-price non GM ones are performant as well. Techart AF adapter for all manual focus lenses is a game changer for me who wants character + convenience at same time, why bother with manual focus on another camera when you can bang it on the adapter?

Nikon Z is similar, widest range of adapters, including to Sony E! The most flexible in terms of flange back distance, Nikon's own lenses are a mixed bag but all the nice Sigma Sony stuff is usable with the Megadap adapter for $250.

So to the rest...

Canon RF doesn't seem to be holding back the cameras at the moment, does it? I think things are starting to change though. RF line-up is dogshit. Either massive and hugely expensive, or cheap and shows it. There is absolutely no middle ground whatsoever. There's a total lack of third party options and adapters too. The autofocus Techart Leica M adapter doesn't exist either.

Fuji have no full frame lenses, and the GFX lenses I avoid even though I'm a GFX 100 owner. That's because of the clinical perfection of the damn things, and the price. The 50mm F3.5 pancake is good, but the rest I would honestly pass over for SLR stuff and manual focus, get the right match and they work really well. On X mount, things are better... I've always liked the Fuji XF range and now there's some nice Sigma options as well, best APS-C lens mount by far but it ain't full frame.

L-Mount, let's just say it's a good job they have Sigma on board because Panasonic and Leica don't know what the fuck they're doing.

Micro Four Thirds mount, with Olympus gone and interest fading in the format, the writing is on the wall. What a great 15 years it has been though. Voigtlander Noktons, Speed Boosters, great options from Panasonic and Olympus, they had such a wide ecosystem even in 2014 in the good old GH4 days, wider than anyone even Sony E mount... And they now have no choice but to bin it!

We see how fast a mount can die... Do many people still use Canon EF lenses on a metabones adapter?

That was such a dominant system, and similarly for Nikon F mount and their DSLR lenses... Some fantastic stuff in there, no longer gets used.

Future predictions:

- Sony and Nikon are on the path to domination and will over take Canon
- Leica will focus on M mount
- M43 will be officially discontinued due to lack of lenses and mount support
- Panasonic/Sigma/Leica alliance will break up... Each will go their own way
- Canon RF will continue but they will not achieve the domination that EF mount did in the long run
- Fuji GFX and X will continue, but long term it's a bit less clear

[IronFilm]

7 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

We see how fast a mount can die...

Who here is still using Samsung NX mount or Nikon CX mount?

(Surprisingly, Pentax K mount is still barely existing)

7 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

- Leica will focus on M mount

Why M over L Mount?

 

[MrSMW]

I have never really cared for Sony as a brand personally though previously owned several of their cameras, primarily the RX100V and RX10ii…though neither of these were MILC’s obviously.

My 30+ year career has principally been:

Nikon F film cameras, followed by Nikon digital in the early 2000’s and then around 9 years with Fuji X Mount.

2021, I moved to L Mount with the S5 followed by S1H, S1R and S5ii.

I have dabbled at times with M4/3 but never really got on with it due to low light needs for video and ultimate stills quality. For my needs, larger sensors simply are better.

The only major brand I have never used is Canon.

My needs are hybrid. Either within a single camera, or multiple cameras designated ‘video’ or ‘stills’.

And then there are lenses…

Over the years, I have often found it’s ’another brand’ that has the lens I would ideally prefer, but it’s not available or does not have an equivalent for whatever is my current system.

That is not so much the case anymore but only happened within the last 1-2 years so now it’s very much a case of most…or at least more camera brands can meet my needs.

Or can they…??

L Mount, my current choice for video.

Has the lenses, good AF, 6k 30p (would prefer 50/60p but not a dealbreaker) excellent IBIS, multiple frame markers/cropping, ie, if I want to shoot CinemaScope, I don’t need to stick tape over my screen or simply try and imagine it. Plus I can burn my LUT into it.

Who else has that? Nobody as far as I am aware?

Nikon has their new RED luts and I think are just getting going and the Z6iii has some of the features I would like, but also missing some and these currently are dealbreakers, namely the in camera crop markers and cannot burn in a lut.

Where L Mount currently fail for me is as stills cameras.

The S1R is just a bit too old but could be made to work but it’s the SL3 I want but cannot afford.

The S5ii, my current video workhorse has too clunky a shutter sound and feel for my tastes. I prefer the the S1H over the S5ii for stills but then 24mp is a bit low for my needs these days.

Step forward Sony.

That brand I have largely avoided.

Mostly because they never seemed to care about the last 10% of build quality or features or actual ability.

Stuff like right up to the A7Riv which had and has excellent image quality, but lacks a decent rear screen.

The A7CR looked great to me except, crappy rear screen again and single card slot.

Briefly, Fuji medium format. Love the bodies, less so the lenses.

I kept circling around the A7RV but in the end came to the conclusion that for my needs as least, it was and still is unbeatable as a stills platform.

Compact enough to stick a small prime on it and due to it’s 61mp sensor, so much range.

With a baseplate smaller to mid-sized zooms and larger/longer primes become very viable.

Stick a battery grip on it and the largest of zooms etc now all work.

The closest for me is the Z8 and I could make that work but the only slight reservation is the lack of mechanical shutter.

But where is it all going (including this ramble 🥱?)

Sony might not have the heritage of a Leica or a Hasselblad or a Nikon, but arguably offer the most today.

Nikon I reckon a close second because of the mount and ability to adapt E Mount lenses…but with a slight reservation in that regard and that is native on camera adjustments do not happen so you don’t always get quite the same result as you do with using a Sony body.

Canon falls short with their lack of middle ground lenses and seem to me a bit over-priced compared with their peers.

Fuji APSC almost does it for me except it’s APSC and their is a difference between that and full-frame and their has been AF issues. A good lens line up though.

And then there is the curio that is L Mount…

Leica, the aspirational brand where 50% of what you are paying for is a red dot 🔴 

OK, supposedly a great interface and build and mythical/perhaps real, image quality, but so many niggles also…

Sigma: Promising cameras with the FP and FP-L but no sign of anything to follow and these were and are so compromised as much as I want to love them. So close but just one generation away from being great.

And LUMIX…full-frame LUMIX.

IMO, one generation away from being great.

The S5ii is arguably the greatest video tool of it’s type and price but lacks a bit in a few areas and I would class as:

Video = great

Hybrid = good

Stills = OK

The S1R flips the above in reverse.

The S1H scores 3x good for me but trumps them all in build and feel etc.

What LUMIX need, is a next gen S1H/S1R spec in an S5ii sized body with the polish of the S1H.

In summary, for me right now, Sony and Nikon offer me the best stills options and potential hybrid options, but currently do not regarding the latter and so I remain with L Mount until either they do or LUMIX bring out a next gen S line.

Whereas I once believed it inevitable that they would, ie, a LUMIX badged Leica SL3, I am now on the fence whether that will happen, or anything at all.

Meanwhile, all Nikon really need to do (for me), is allow me to burn in a lut and add frame markers and happy days, I will end my career back with the brand I started it all with.

Z8 for ‘pro’ stills (could flip to this right now)

Zf for hybrid (have it already)

Z6iii for video, but currently falls short based on the 2 factors above.

The bottom line for me is all the tools are available, but it’s slightly frustrating I need to mix and not always match, a variety of brands to make things work for my needs.

[Andrew Reid]

10 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Why M over L Mount?

Because M is where the profit and sales are. It's a success, going back decades.

If you look at all the L-mount cameras they are hardly selling.

[mercer]

I'm definitely in the minority on this site, but I think the rush to mirrorless by the entire industry was a mistake and I wouldn't be surprised if Canon and maybe Nikon bring back a DSLR line.

[mercer]

11 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Surprisingly, Pentax K mount is still barely existing)

I don't know, if I was only interested in photography on a completely hobbyist level, I'd serious look at getting a Pentax. I have a cheap Pentax film camera from the 80s that is a pure joy to shoot with. I also have one of  their old, CCD DSLRs which has IBIS and is a pleasure to take out for a walk. And their lenses... Takumar lenses alone are a marvel of lens design and engineering.

I don't see them going anywhere for a little while. 

[mercer]

7 minutes ago, mercer said:

I'm definitely in the minority on this site, but I think the rush to mirrorless by the entire industry was a mistake and I wouldn't be surprised if Canon and maybe Nikon bring back a DSLR line.

To clear up some confusion... when an industry is being overtaken by phone photography, I can't say it's a great idea to develop entirely new product lines when the entire market was shrinking. I'm not saying I dislike mirrorless cameras or that there isn't a market for them... of course there is... Sony and m4/3 proved that. I'm just stating it may not have been the best idea for Canon and Nikon to abandon their previous market entirely. 

[Ilkka Nissila]

13 minutes ago, mercer said:

To clear up some confusion... when an industry is being overtaken by phone photography, I can't say it's a great idea to develop entirely new product lines when the entire market was shrinking. I'm not saying I dislike mirrorless cameras or that there isn't a market for them... of course there is... Sony and m4/3 proved that. I'm just stating it may not have been the best idea for Canon and Nikon to abandon their previous market entirely. 

Currently the camera market is stable and overall slowly growing. The amateur/enthusiast/professional market has been stable in size over a long time. What happened is regular consumers (to whom photography is not their spiritual or financial lifeline) stopped buying decated cameras. This caused some trouble to the traditional camera makers but they weathered this disruption.

 

Nikon and Canon haven't stopped making DSLRs and they will produce what the people buy. I happen to prefer the optical viewfinder but because of the need to be able to photograph silently in some situations, I also needed a mirrorless camera system. But I have great regret about the absence of the OVF which I prefer when timing shots one by one (which for me results in superior keeper rate over what I can get with high frame rate continuous and much less time spent on editing). However, for shorter focal length wide-aperture lenses, mirorrless produces usually better in-focus rates so the overall result is that I am divided. 

For the manufacturers selling entirely new lens lineups must be profitable. For the Earth's environment, it may be a disaster.

[mercer]

34 minutes ago, Ilkka Nissila said:

Currently the camera market is stable and overall slowly growing. The amateur/enthusiast/professional market has been stable in size over a long time. What happened is regular consumers (to whom photography is not their spiritual or financial lifeline) stopped buying decated cameras. This caused some trouble to the traditional camera makers but they weathered this disruption.

 

Nikon and Canon haven't stopped making DSLRs and they will produce what the people buy. I happen to prefer the optical viewfinder but because of the need to be able to photograph silently in some situations, I also needed a mirrorless camera system. But I have great regret about the absence of the OVF which I prefer when timing shots one by one (which for me results in superior keeper rate over what I can get with high frame rate continuous and much less time spent on editing). However, for shorter focal length wide-aperture lenses, mirorrless produces usually better in-focus rates so the overall result is that I am divided. 

For the manufacturers selling entirely new lens lineups must be profitable. For the Earth's environment, it may be a disaster.

I may be wrong but the consumer, enthusiast models were Canon and Nikon's bread and butter? That said, I know they still offer a few DSLRs, but I don't believe they're developing anything new?

I'm new to stills. I started with video and only recently started shooting stills, but I started at the beginning shooting a little film and the previously mentioned Pentax DSLR. With my limited experience, I do enjoy a good OVF and I'm also interested in the hybrid viewfinders that Fuji has with their X-Pro line.

[Django]

7 minutes ago, mercer said:

I'm just stating it may not have been the best idea for Canon and Nikon to abandon their previous market entirely. 

CaNikon were actually pretty slow to the mirrorless transition. And their DSLRs are still up for sale in every camera shop I visit so they haven't yet fully abandoned them, the majority of consumers have. As much as I have fond memories of DSLR days, mirrorless brings so much more to the table, I don't see how/why things would go back. All I really also miss is the OVF for certain stills situations, but EVF has its own benefits. I also wish bodies were a little sturdier/chunkier as the overall goal seems to be towards lightness/compactness vs robustness/balance/ergonomics.

 

9 hours ago, MrSMW said:

Leica, the aspirational brand where 50% of what you are paying for is a red dot 🔴 

Just like any premium brand sure you pay for the badge but also the materials, design, craftsmanship, made in Germany (M,Q, SL range) and the aftermarket service which in my experience is quite unique. Walk in any Leica store and get your camera serviced on the spot by the in-house tech. In contrast I ended ditching Nikon after my D750 got recalled and took 3 months to get back to me due to parts shortage in South Asia.

Also if you pay second hand for older model the price hit isn't that bad and the cameras last forever. My M9P from 2010 still looks and operates like new. Doubt the current mirrorless crop will withstand the test of time that well.

10 hours ago, MrSMW said:

Meanwhile, all Nikon really need to do (for me), is allow me to burn in a lut and add frame markers and happy days, I will end my career back with the brand I started it all with.

Z9 is getting shutter angle and other video enhancements in the next update. I'm quite sure custom LUTs will appear soon as well with the whole RED acquisition. They are priced quite aggressively too, I feel they could eat up Panasonic shares as the outsider in the hybrid video field.

20 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

Canon RF doesn't seem to be holding back the cameras at the moment, does it? I think things are starting to change though. RF line-up is dogshit. Either massive and hugely expensive, or cheap and shows it. There is absolutely no middle ground whatsoever.

Canon hasn't really changed their lens strategy imo. L glass on top, entry-level lenses on the bottom. The middle ground is actually EF lenses! A lot of Canon mirrorless shooters adapt their EF lenses.

RF wise Canon has started to develop hybrid stills/video lenses with the VCM primes which is nice but still L priced.

Nikon Z has an even more interesting strategy with their entry priced non S f1.4 primes. 

20 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

There's a total lack of third party options and adapters too.

Tamron & Sigma are just now releasing RF lenses but yeah the RF gates are pretty much closed. Worst system for sure if you wanna adapt glass.

[eatstoomuchjam]

3 hours ago, mercer said:

I'm definitely in the minority on this site, but I think the rush to mirrorless by the entire industry was a mistake and I wouldn't be surprised if Canon and maybe Nikon bring back a DSLR line.

This is a really weird statement.  The main resistance to mirrorless (initially) was related to latency and low refresh rate in the EVF.  Latency seems to be a mostly-solved problem as I can no longer perceive it in any meaningful way and refresh rates of 120fps aren't uncommon these days.
Plus for those who want a DSLR, there are lots of excellent models available on the used market and at least one manufacturer (Pentax) who doesn't seem inclined to move away from them.
That's also not to mention that mirrorless cameras, especially those without a mechanical shutter, are far more reliable than a camera which relies on gears and levers that will eventually wear out - or have oil dry up or... any number of other ways that physical things break over time.

1 hour ago, Django said:

Canon hasn't really changed their lens strategy imo. L glass on top, entry-level lenses on the bottom. The middle ground is actually EF lenses! A lot of Canon mirrorless shooters adapt their EF lenses.

It me.  There are piles of excellent EF glass on the used market and as the price keeps going down, my collection of unreachable and generally impractical dream lenses is likely to increase.  200/2L IS?  Got it.  400/2.8, 500/4, or 200-400/4?  NOT YET
Bonus: By using adapted EF glass, I can easily jump to just about any other mount and have it act basically like native glass for that mount.  Except Sony.  I still don't understand why seamless AF adapters seem possible for every other system, but for EF->E, adapter documentation tends to be full of caveats like "PDAF doesn't work in video mode" or "you have to toggle adapter modes for this thing to work and when you do, continuous AF will stop working until you un-toggle it."

About the only RF-native glass that I have or am likely to get is the low-end cheap plastic stuff (for when I want to set up for the lightest possible camera) and unique/interesting lenses - like I kind of love the 800/11.

[IronFilm]

12 hours ago, Ilkka Nissila said:

Nikon and Canon haven't stopped making DSLRs and they will produce what the people buy.

They haven't stopped making DSLRs yet. 

I'd give it only slightly better than 50/50 odds that a Nikon D7 will be released. The Nikon D6 came out in 2020 so we're a little bit overdue for a D7 currently, but we can cut it some slack and not fully count the covid era years. But the Nikon flagships are meant to be in sync with the Olympic cycles, so if we don't see one in 2024, does that mean we wait until 2028? They couldn't do a midcycle release??

I highly doubt that both the D850 & D780 will get updated, but I'll give it better than 50/50 odds that one of them will be updated. (the D850 is crazy overdue for an update)

Probably the D780 but with some D850 features, they'll bring that out as a middle ground camera that is an update that sits between the D7x0 and the D8x0 series. 

A bit like what happened with the D90/D300, rather than do an update for both of them, then instead Nikon released the D7000 as a single update to replace both of them. While on the topic of DX cameras, I'll predict we'll never again see a new DX DSLR from Nikon (or Canon for that matter). Maaaybe there is a wild card chance we see something like a Nikon D7600. But I doubt it. Heck, releasing a Nikon D3600 produced in the most obnoxiously cost-cutting cheap manner possible (Nikon never made their equivalent camera to Canon's EOS 4000D) is more likely than a D7600 I'm afraid. 

So that's what I'm predicting:

1) sometime in the next year or three, then a camera that's a replacement for both the D780 and D850 will come out. Probably with the a7 mk4 33MP sensor. That's almost identical resolution to the OG D800, so kinda enough resolution to keep many D8x0 series users happen, while also being a good choice for a sensor for a D7x0 series camera. 

2) maybe the Nikon D7 will come out in time for the 2028 Olympics (the 111th year of Nikon's existence!), and will be Nikon's last ever flagship DSLR. (there is a possibility they might buck tradition, and not sync it up with an Olympics cycle? But I doubt it)

3) maybe a surprise wild card, such as  D7600 or D3600 or Df mk2, but I truly would be very surprised if any of these happened. 

4) if Nikon DSLRs users are very very lucky, then in the early 2030's we'll see the truly last last ever DSLR released: the update to whatever was the camera released in my #1 prediction.

5) there is a very good chance the "updates" might just be a very very mild update, such as adding USB-C to a camera (like was the case with today's Panasonic G97 announcement), so rather than seeing a true D790 release (with a new sensor), it's more like a "D780s" update instead (such as the upgrade from a D300 to a D300s was). 

So all in all, I'm predicting one or two more DSLR releases from Nikon, maaaybe three more releases from Nikon. Almost dead zero chance there will be four+ more DSLRs releases from Nikon before the heat death of the univerrse. 

As for Canon, I predict they're going to more aggressively ditch their EF mount, they'll release half as many new DSLRs as Nikon will be releasing. Or even less.

Pentax is going to keep on doing whatever Pentax is doing. (I was surprised to learn that the new Pentax KF  camera was released as recently as 2023!)

Sony will never ever again release an A Mount camera. (α99 II / α68 / α77 II all got discontinued in 2021)

[Andrew Reid]

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

They haven't stopped making DSLRs yet.

They have.

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

I'd give it only slightly better than 50/50 odds that a Nikon D7 will be released.

The Z9 is the replacement for that.

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

The Nikon D6 came out in 2020 so we're a little bit overdue for a D7 currently, but we can cut it some slack and not fully count the covid era years. But the Nikon flagships are meant to be in sync with the Olympic cycles, so if we don't see one in 2024, does that mean we wait until 2028? They couldn't do a midcycle release??

Everyone at the Olympics has switched to mirrorless, all the sports pros are now R1, R3, Z9, A1.

3 hours ago, IronFilm said:

I highly doubt that both the D850 & D780 will get updated, but I'll give it better than 50/50 odds that one of them will be updated. (the D850 is crazy overdue for an update)

D780 was the update... Basically a Z6, with same autofocus in live-view mode.

They'd be mental to do another when you can use Nikon F-mount lenses on Z mount.

By the way you know they discontinued F-mount lenses don't you? Same with Canon and EF.

No more being made... ever.

Which means no need for any more EF or F-mount cameras either.

 

[IronFilm]

12 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

They'd be mental to do another when you can use Nikon F-mount lenses on Z mount.

Not if they're screw drive. 

13 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

No more being made... ever.

You think the only DSLR cameras and lenses ever being sold are those which are currently on retailer shelves or in the warehouses? 

[ND64]

Its hard to believe Canon lose its domination. 1 in 2 photographers in the world own a Canon, and they see no reason to switch. 

[Andrew Reid]

2 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Not if they're screw drive. 

You think the only DSLR cameras and lenses ever being sold are those which are currently on retailer shelves or in the warehouses? 

You think camera companies make profit from selling used gear?! 🙂

The store shelves are what matter... And fact is, DSLR is dead as a dodo. Customers not interested. The few that are, are well served by eBay.

Why the heck would the camera companies want to cannibalise and undercut their mirrorless range by making a DSLR and new F-mount lenses?

I consider this discussion a bit stupid to be honest.

[Andrew Reid]

There's the Nikon Df for screw-drive AF-D lenses and Ai-S.

I considered getting it once but now you can get a used D4 for less, with the same sensor.

[BTM_Pix]

4 hours ago, IronFilm said:

Not if they're screw drive. 

Funnily enough, the Nikon rumour mill was churning out that Nikon are making a version of the FTZ in 2025 with a motor for screw drive lenses a couple of days ago.

Monster already do such a one for adapting to E mount.

https://www.monsteradapter.com/products/la-fe2-nikon-f-mount-lenses-to-sony-e-mount-cameras-adapter-with-af-motor-built-in

[mercer]

So I had a look at B&H to see what DSLRs they still carry and I was surprised to see that they still have a pretty good selection. Obviously, older models. From Nikon you have the D7500 to the D850 and in between, and from Canon... the T7 to the 1DX Mark iii and everything in between. As others have mentioned, not too surprising... older stock.

What I found the most interesting is that B&H has a lot of refurbished cameras and grey market DSLRs for sale. This transfers to their DSLR lens inventory as well. If B&H is selling grey market cameras (they even have a couple refurbished grey market models) then I can only assume that there is still a healthy little market for DSLRs. I also only searched for Body Only cameras, so there wasn't any duplicates in the search.

Eventually, even the grey market stock will run out and I assume their mirrorless models will get a bump in sales.

Anyway, just an observation that I found interesting.

With all that said, I agree @Andrew Reid regarding your original point about the camera mounts. The Z mount has some great possibilities and would probably be where I will go once I upgrade. Of course, I am really intrigued by about 5 or 6 different cameras and they're all in different mounts. So who knows what will happen when I completely get bored with the FP.

[Django]

.. Z9 just got the new firmware bringing shutter angle and some WFM & zebra enhancements:

 

..these will surely trickle down to Z8, Z6iii. So another plus point for Z mount!