New US camera import tariffs - 25-50%

[Andrew Reid]

32 minutes ago, Snowfun said:

If an (unintended) consequence of all this nonsense is  “buy local and buy less” then that will, I think, be a good thing.

Not protectionism. Not jingoism. Not anti-globalisation. But nevertheless possibly better for the planet and for our own health & wellbeing. 

Buying local, if it means the complete destruction of the economy of China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand will not be a good thing for the planet. It'll lead to WW3 and possibly even nuclear war. The uncultured twits in the white house don't understand this but often in history whenever you have a great depression, it leads to a military confrontation.

Trade is what binds us together and prevents a lot of fighting.

People should buy local as well as support jobs in Asia.

Buy as much as you can, it keeps the economy going.

The alternative is not worth thinking about.

In terms of the environment, there are a certain number of people on the planet - they are not going away. The damage has already been done. For the world's population to have any sort of quality of life they need to consume, eat well, have jobs, shelter, transport.

That should not come at the cost of the environment, but it does. Impossible situation. Technology can help but I think we're past the point of no return anyway.

I want to buy Asian made goods, like cameras, lenses, computers, audio gear, and until it is made down the road in a small village in the same quantities for the same price, which will never happen, I will continue to want less trade barriers between countries.

[MrSMW]

I'm curious...but also a slightly rhetorical question, what folks in the industry think they can 'buy local' and only local, ie, made in your country or area of residence?

Personally speaking, as an EU resident, I'd have to buy Leica for cameras and lenses, plus there are German companies that make sound gear. 

France make that Pixiie camera, but struggling beyond that...

We'd be OK for cars...unless they needed components from outside the EU.

France is OK for electric as the country runs on nuclear.

We have dozens of countries to trade with within the EU.

But it's actually a load of fucking bollocks to think we can all suddenly shift to 'shopping local' and all or at least most options exist because so much is manufactured in at least component form around the world. It's a global economy.

With enough time, maybe...probably, but what would happen in the mean time?

Life as we know it changed fundamentally and almost certainly for the worst if not multiple and massive conflicts ending with possible annihilation of every species on the planet including human life.

As the saying goes, the lunatics have taken over the asylum.

[Phil A]

1 hour ago, MrSMW said:

France is OK for electric as the country runs on nuclear.

They're not. 

Quote

Over the last ten years, the 88,200 tonnes of natural uranium imported into France came mainly from three countries: Kazakhstan (27%), Niger (20%), and Uzbekistan (19%). 

Source: How dependent is France on Niger's uranium?

 

It's 2025. Nearly everything is using globalized supply chains. Even local agriculture that produces food will use machinery, fertilizer, pesticides or something else from abroad. The ship for economic isolation has sailed, it's not the 19th century anymore.

While I'm sure there are things that need to be fixed about the world economy (e.g., labor practices in developing countries, adherence to environmental standards, etc.), this current disaster is not how anything good will result.

We truly live in the dumbest timeline.

[eatstoomuchjam]

1 hour ago, MrSMW said:

France make that Pixiie camera, but struggling beyond that...

Angénieux lenses!

1 hour ago, MrSMW said:

France is OK for electric as the country runs on nuclear.

Are there uranium mines in France?  

1 hour ago, MrSMW said:

But it's actually a load of fucking bollocks to think we can all suddenly shift to 'shopping local' and all or at least most options exist because so much is manufactured in at least component form around the world. It's a global economy.

Plus only eating local means a greatly reduced diet from what a lot of us enjoy.

1 hour ago, MrSMW said:

With enough time, maybe...probably, but what would happen in the mean time?

I'm not even sure about that.  What do smaller countries do?  Does Singapore just become part of Malaysia or Indonesia?  I doubt there's even close to enough space there for them to make everything they use/need.  Do people in Taiwan just start eating microchips since they make a lot of those, but the island is probably too small to have agriculture to feed the whole population?

[Snowfun]

1 hour ago, Andrew Reid said:

Buying local, if it means the complete destruction of the economy of China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand will not be a good thing for the planet.

I’m not sure anyone would adopt that rather silly & superficial definition. “Buy local” is usually taken to mean that IFF a choice is available then one might reasonably decide to buy the one with fewer transportation costs, is supportive of a local economy and meets the needs of the consumer. Anyone naive enough to think that this applies to cameras - which are so obviously “global” it isn’t worth stating - possibly shouldn’t be contributing. As a relevant example I might look at Hifi - lots of options but certainly possible to “buy local” (thinking Sugden, Chord Electronics and Spendor in my own case). Or chickens. 

[Andrew Reid]

38 minutes ago, Snowfun said:

I’m not sure anyone would adopt that rather silly & superficial definition. “Buy local” is usually taken to mean that IFF a choice is available then one might reasonably decide to buy the one with fewer transportation costs, is supportive of a local economy and meets the needs of the consumer. Anyone naive enough to think that this applies to cameras - which are so obviously “global” it isn’t worth stating - possibly shouldn’t be contributing. As a relevant example I might look at Hifi - lots of options but certainly possible to “buy local” (thinking Sugden, Chord Electronics and Spendor in my own case). Or chickens. 

We are not talking about pork sausages though are we?

This is a topic about tariffs on cameras and cutting edge electronics.

So why mention it?

Your argument doesn't fit here, and I don't know what the point of it is.

So back on topic...

The US is a third of the global market for consumer electronics and professional cameras, and actually much more than a third for certain products and companies.

If this market was to vanish behind a nationalist, protectionist trade barrier then it won't matter how much you bang on about buying local, the country's economy and jobs will go through a catastrophic breakdown as the Americans are about to find out.

[MrSMW]

1 hour ago, Phil A said:

Over the last ten years, the 88,200 tonnes of natural uranium imported into France came mainly from three countries: Kazakhstan (27%), Niger (20%), and Uzbekistan (19%)

Good point. Well France is also well fucked in the new world order!

Or maybe they need to stock up on uranium as I did on a few bits & bobs I needed for this season just in case the shit hits the fan.

I bought 4 batteries, 3 used lenses, 2 filter adapters and a filter (not in a pear tree).

[eatstoomuchjam]

1 hour ago, Snowfun said:

“Buy local” is usually taken to mean that IFF a choice is available then one might reasonably decide to buy the one with fewer transportation costs, is supportive of a local economy and meets the needs of the consumer

I'd also say that statements like this are often fairly privileged.  The people I know who would self-describe as "localvores" or similar end up spending more on things like produce because it also comes with buying organic/sustainable and with well-paid labor.  These are all things that I support and like - and I try to be mindful of them in my consumption as well, but I also have a good income, no kids, and I've paid off my house and car.

For the people living in the house next door to me which is government-subsidized housing for struggling families, I doubt that "pay twice as much for your produce to support local farmers" is as compelling as "have enough food that school lunch is the only decent meal your kids eat today."

It turns out that transportation costs in the modern world aren't huge and are dwarfed by a number of other factors.

40 minutes ago, Andrew Reid said:

If this market was to vanish behind a nationalist, protectionist trade barrier then it won't matter how much you bang on about buying local, the country's economy and jobs will go through a catastrophic breakdown as the Americans are about to find out.

And as the stock market is already showing.  The whole "buy and use less" thing sounds great - but instantly shifting to it from more of a consumerist mindset means massive short-term economic chaos, some of which may be unrecoverable.

24 minutes ago, MrSMW said:

Or maybe they need to stock up on uranium as I did on a few bits & bobs I needed for this season just in case the shit hits the fan.

"I'm sure that in 1985, plutonium is available in every corner drugstore, but in 1955, it's a little hard to come by!"

[MrSMW]

23 minutes ago, eatstoomuchjam said:

"I'm sure that in 1985, plutonium is available in every corner drugstore, but in 1955, it's a little hard to come by!"

I dunno, I just popped down to the local magasin and right there on the shelf next to (the school kids buying) absinthe and Gauloise, were some bottles of the stuff labelled 'extra long shelf life 235'.

Being serious, they DO pay much more for groceries here if it has a 'Made in France' sticker on it. We're not talking especially 'artisan sourced local product', but just every day things that are exactly the same. They fill up on the stuff out of national pride and fair play if it supports the supermarket profits. Personally, being a Brit, I'll go to LIDL or ALDI.

[Thpriest]

Not sure how this is going to affect Spain. What is true is that more expensive goods have increasingly held their value in the second hand market as more and more people can’t afford to replace them with new since Covid. I have a 17 year old Toyota Corolla that I bought for about 3500€ 3 years ago (great car by the way!). It’s got another 40,000km on it and it’s probably worth more now! The camera market is a bit different. 2nd hand cameras have been getting cheaper (apart from some “must have” internet phenomenon cameras) and I’d expect a flood of people selling off gear if the economy starts tanking and prices will initially go down then shoot up when people realise they can only afford second hand gear. Unless Asia dumps all their cameras here at a discount! 
Spain’s main exports to USA seem to be olive oil, wine and some other products. We could probably do with changing the vast areas dedicated to monocultures as sooner or later they will all be deserts but like everything, changing tack from one day to the next is going to be problematic. The real problem is that no one believes that Trump won’t change his mind again or once he has some beautiful deals, that he won’t turn the screw again.

 

[eatstoomuchjam]

Well, he just announced that at midnight, the tariff on Chinese goods will raise to 104%.  I just can't stand all this winning.

[MrSMW]

I just went out into my back garden and turned the lawn into a field of soy beans instead.

Someone has to feed those estimated 440 million piggies in China and I reckon I’m gonna get me a slice of that piggy pie.

[Thpriest]

To add to the buy local theme, with food it’s quite easy in some countries but very difficult in others. Here in Spain we can grow stuff all year round, it’s a big empty space and food is relatively cheap and easy to source locally, even in a big city like Madrid. Try that in Scotland, Malta, Egypt, Pakistan or many other countries that rely on global trade to feed their population or provide variety in produce. And that’s just food, which is usually just grown in one place and shipped to another. It’s not like technology which has different parts that come from all over the world to be assembled somewhere and then shipped somewhere else. I have no idea how they are going to calculate how much something is “worth” with so much instability.

[Ilkka Nissila]

9 hours ago, Snowfun said:

If an (unintended) consequence of all this nonsense is  “buy local and buy less” then that will, I think, be a good thing.

While I agree that buying fewer things that you don't really need (only may want) is good for the environment, it's not the main result that will come out of this if the trade wars and tariffs continue.

 

The main effect is that people who have low incomes will not be able to afford what they need to continue living, and the rich are comparately less affected (which is why a government led by billionaires is doing it). It's a move from progressive income taxes to a flat tax that mainly affects the poor and middle class. The billionaires know when to buy and when to sell because they have inside information of Trump's moves. So the billionaires sold stock before the tariffs came into effect and the common people sell in panic after the tariffs have crashed the stock market. After the crash the billionaires on the inside buy stock on the cheap after which the tariffs will be cancelled and the rich will have made a lot of money and the common people have lost their retirement savings. That's what this is all about. The richest people can never have enough.

 

Industry will never return to the US because the American people are not willing to do that kind of work for as little money as the people who live in the 3rd world are willing to do it for. Not even close. Tariffs would need to be something 500-1000% for the manufacturing to actually return to the US. And that would make a lot of the American people poor in terms of what purchasing power they have.

 

Instead, US sells services such as software and financial services to other regions, balancing the trade. This is of course not going to help them fight a world war because for that they would indeed need a manufacturing industry, which led to this dilemma.

[Andrew Reid]

1 hour ago, Ilkka Nissila said:

Instead, US sells services such as software and financial services to other regions, balancing the trade. This is of course not going to help them fight a world war because for that they would indeed need a manufacturing industry, which led to this dilemma.

Very good point about services.

So when Dump talks about terrible trade deficits with certain countries, did he forget about Amazon Web Services, Apple App Store, Netflix, VISA, Master Card and Cloudflare?

More to the point.. does he even know what they are? 🙂

Best way to fight fire with fire is for the rest of the world to kick out VISA and to sell all their reserve currency (USD)

Then the Americans would come grovelling to us instead of the other way round.

[Ilkka Nissila]

8 hours ago, Andrew Reid said:

Very good point about services.

So when Dump talks about terrible trade deficits with certain countries, did he forget about Amazon Web Services, Apple App Store, Netflix, VISA, Master Card and Cloudflare?

More to the point.. does he even know what they are? 🙂

Best way to fight fire with fire is for the rest of the world to kick out VISA and to sell all their reserve currency (USD)

Then the Americans would come grovelling to us instead of the other way round.

Trump's deficit calculations are only about goods and completely ignore services. For example, US has a trade surplus in services with the EU that is twice as big in value than the deficit in goods trade with the EU. Yet tariffs were placed on goods coming from the EU. I think the EU could  simply respond by placing a 30% tariff on Google, Meta, X, etc. and it would be fair. I would guess that the EU has a better chance of creating its own IT services than the US has of industry returning. 

 

Somehow Trump likes physical industry and doesn't care about all the pollution that comes with it. It has been argued that there is a defence motivation behind this, as although currently US has a lot of military equipment, they lack the capacity to build more of it quickly to fight a world war. Another factor is that a lot of Trump voters live in the (formerly) industrial areas of the US. I can see SNL comment "I restored a beautiful smog, so much thicker than in China, and much more beautiful, America has returned to a new Smoggy Era. And the rivers have beautiful white foam, unlike anything seen before. The fish are dead, and we can have beautiful and proper beef burgers at McDonald's."

[Thpriest]

18 hours ago, MrSMW said:

I just went out into my back garden and turned the lawn into a field of soy beans instead.

Someone has to feed those estimated 440 million piggies in China and I reckon I’m gonna get me a slice of that piggy pie.

Talking about animals and such like, I think the EU didn't quite get their survival kit right. I'm thinking 1 large dog, 1 angry goat, 3 chickens, loads of matches, a sharp knife and a cricket bat. Hopefully that should see us through the first few weeks after the apocalypse. I won't take a camera as there will probably be little use in documenting everything for no one to watch.

[MrSMW]

56 minutes ago, Thpriest said:

I'm thinking 1 large dog, 1 angry goat, 3 chickens, loads of matches, a sharp knife and a cricket bat

I'd swap out a few items there...

All of the animals for a hunting rifle with scope for longer range stuff and a pump action shotgun for the closer stuff. I've seen up to Season 5 of The Walking Dead so feel I am quite well informed on such matters. 

The matches I'd keep and the sharp knife though I might swap out both the sharp knife and the cricket bat for a single sword?

And as ridiculous as this sounds, it's no more insane than the news currently spewing out of North America.

And get some gold coins. Not the chocolate kind as they might melt, but the real stuff because you can trade them for food in the future. Such as soy beans.

[John Matthews]

IMO, most of these tariffs are going to be dropped. There's no way Republicans are going to accept the consequences of them because they would be so severe- basically they're embargos with no replacement products available. China will eat them alive. For other countries, the smartest way forward is to simply ride the wave. The bad solution is to get suckered into a deal with him, empowering him and his brand of corruption. Temporarily close operations in the US. Start new trade partnerships ASAP to survive. Apparently, no one can beat him, except himself.

As for the camera market, I think many will be ok with a few exceptions. All I can imagine is that (IF the tariffs remain) it will be status quo for 4 years. Investment will probably halt until it gets sorted out. Clearly, the USA is not the attractive market anymore as insanity is just a president away.

[newfoundmass]

5 minutes ago, John Matthews said:

IMO, most of these tariffs are going to be dropped. There's no way Republicans are going to accept the consequences of them because they would be so severe- basically they're embargos with no replacement products available.

5 years ago I'd have agreed with you, but honestly today, right now, I don't think it's possible to predict how Republicans will react. I mean, this is the same party that rallied around a convicted felon who has spent the last decade trying to destroy people's trust in government and its institutions, and whom from all accounts was happy when his supporters stormed the capitol. They are so entrenched in the Trump cult, it's hard to imagine them going against him.

I really do think it's about time people stop giving the Republican party the benefit of the doubt.