The Canon Expo ([url]https://expo.usa.canon.com) is about to kick off, and features an overwhelming bias toward HD DSLR video, with seminars by Shane Hurlbut, Vincent LaForet, Alex Buono, Russel Carpenter and Rodney Charters.
If that wasn’t enough we have an interview Steven Poster ASC (cinematographer of Donnie Darko – big favourite of mine) on how he’s integrating HD SLRs into film set environments, a cinematographer panel discsussion lead by Jon Fauer of the Film and Digital Times plus a technical presentation by Canon USA’s Larry Thorpe on HD image quality (specifically the relationship of lens to camera).
Note that the House crew are filming a trailer for the next series on ‘a 5D’ right now. That’s something that may turn up in one of the projection rooms at the Expo!
If you look at the seminar schedule here ([url]https://expo.usa.canon.com/expo/seminars.pdf) you will see that the overwhelming majority of Expo goings on are DSLR video related, not photographic. Even though the Expo cover’s Canon Inc’s broad activities in the world of stills, print, graphic arts, healthcare and even office equipment the video stuff is the main theme of the 2010 Expo.
Therefore it’s all gearing up around a big push by Canon. Whilst at first I was skeptical we’d be seeing the 5D Mark 3 with DIGIC 5, a new sensor and raw video within 2 years of the last models instead of the usual 3 (I think the 1DS is due first, 5D will follow later), it seems conceivable that Canon have switched to a faster cycle to keep up with consumer demand and the faster rate of change in the industry.
There may also be an EF mount large CMOS based video camera, to compete with the Panasonic AF100 and Sony’s professional CineAlta gear as well as the Arri Alexa and anything from RED. I also think some kind of Canon RAW video codec will be announced alongside this and the new 1DS Mark 4.
Past performance – no guarantee of future success!
The reasoning behind any prediction is based on what has happened, not about what is unknown. The 5D series is currently on a 3 year product cycle. Both instances last time out saw the 5D taking the full frame sensor and image processor of the 1DS to the market 12 months later. Will Canon risk a simultaneous release of the 1DS Mark 4 and 5D Mark 3? Not if the 7D and 60D were anything to go by.
Although what has happened (the 3 year cycle) counts against the new 5D at Expo 2010, what has also happened lately is that the rate of change in the market has spiralled upward. In particular in terms of the new HD video modes on DSLRs and increased customer demand, plus the quickening of camera releases onto the consumer market with gradual evolutionary products.
3 year product cycle of 5D and 1D lines explained
Previous Canon 1D (APS-H) product cycle
1D 3 – Feb 2007
1D 4 – Feb 2010
Previous Canon 1DS (35mm FF) product cycle
1DS 3 – Aug 2007 (5D Mark II did not follow until November 2008, based on same sensor)
1DS 4 – September 2010? (3 year cycle maintained)
Previous Canon 5D (35MM FF) product cycle
5D 1 – November 2005 (Originally unveiled at 2005 Canon Expo September 14th)
5D 2 – November 2008 (Inheriting innards from 1DS III)
5D 3 – November 2010? (moving to 2 year cycle, based on 1DS sensor and DIGIC 5?)
As you can see, should the 5D Mark 3 be revealed in the next few days at Canon Expo, the traditional 3 year cycle will be broken on that one, but the 1DS Mark IV is on schedule to hit it’s 3 year cycle perfectly.
The Canon Expo in New York is a rare event and only comes about every 5 years. If Canon were to announce the 1DS Mark 4 here it would generate huge positive (and controlled) publicity, with all the Canon guys and pros present to spread the word out into the blogosphere.
It is worth mentioning however that on the 1D APS-H product they did not break the 3 year cycle this year – the 1D Mark IV came out exactly 3 years after the 1D Mark III so no change there.
I expect the same with the 1DS which is why I am certain we about to see something big at the Expo.
The 5D is more consumer orientated so that could well break the mould and become 2-yearly, since Canon already have the new full frame sensor ready for the 1DS I presume. But will they make us wait for it?
When the 1DS Mark 3 was announced in 2007, the 5D Mark II followed over 12 months later and was based around the same sensor but a newer DIGIC 4 image processor supporting video. This time we will see the long awaited DIGIC 5 and a real step up for video with the 1DS all at once (I think). I hope that if the 5D Mark 3 is to inherit 1DS technology like previously (Canon will not want to develop 2 new full frame CMOS sensors!) we do not have to wait 12 months for what is essentially the same camera as the 1DS but without the bells & whistles and with a lower price tag. Get them out together Canon!
Canon showed also with the 7D and what followed that enjoy reusing image sensors, even cheaper APS-C ones! I have no doubt at all that the 1DS Mark 4 and 5D Mark 3 will share the same core technology and video capabilities.
Let’s hope they don’t forget the hinge on this one either!
The flagship 5D and 1DS are also due to get the updated AF system introduced on the 7D. What main specs do I believe Canon have planned?
• I think the 1DS Mark 4 will be not just a photographic studio camera. It will be a motion picture studio camera with RAW and live monitoring via dual-link HD-SDI.
• Canon will develop a new video RAW codec and unveil it with the 1DS.
• The 5D Mark 3 will share the same sensor but will probably lack some of the advanced firmware features and RAW video of the 1DS due to price reasons.
• Unfortunately the 1DS will be a very pricey camera *
*That’s the only one I am SURE will come true!!
